3M Open and Cazoo Open – Some bets

Posted on July 20, 2021 by thegreek82

Last week was the 3rd profitable major in a row as DJ and MacIntyre both placed while Webb grabbed a share of the day one lead. That was also enough to get the blog in to profit for the year so I’d thought I’d celebrate by doing another preview this week and promptly removing said profit! Morikawa was an excellent and deserved winner at Royal St. Georges. I’ve seen a fair few comments about how silly it was for people to write him off on a links course but sadly RSG only played somewhat like a links course. Morikawa managed his way round the course brilliantly but personally I thought all the bite had been removed from the course due to the rain they had this summer. That’s not to take anything away from the record breaking winner, just that I’d still be opposing him on a hard and fast links course in future Opens. His short game was excellent but I didn’t see too much carnage around the greens at all as the softer conditions allowed even the poorer short games to be aggressive while the 10.2 stimp meter greens were also quite an equaliser. The best player won and that’s always a good thing but I’ll be marking this year’s Open down as “unseasonally soft and minimal weekend wind” in the notebook.

2021 pts advised = 267.50

2021 pts returned = 275.09

3M Open

On both Tours this week I’ve decided to go down the Morikawa route and back players who might be inspired by his win. Morikawa played on several US Amateur/College teams and I think it’s fair that some established players who played either with him or against him might give themselves a kick up the arse off the back of his showing at the Open.

First up is Doug Ghim and sadly it looks like I’m not alone in my thinking as he has been backed from 66/1 in to around 45/1 and that probably removes any value that might have been there in backing Collin’s pal and 2017 Walker Cup and Arnold Palmer Cup team mate. Not only did they play in these two winning teams together but they both won all their matches at the Walker Cup and have became friends. With Ghim it’s not too daft a pick either as he has some course and improving current form. Ghim was both 18th at the course last year and on his last start at the John Deere. He was 6th tee to green at the John Deere and putted nicely here last year. Yesterday Justin Ray tweeted that only one course on Tour featured more approaches from the 175-200 yard range than TPC Twin Cities and a look at the approach proximity from that range has Ghim sitting in 1st place, further suggesting his game is in ideal condition for the test ahead. He was a very talented amateur and if his mate’s success can give him even a small lift then he might get competitive in a very weak field here.

Maverick McNealy was also on both those teams winning all of his matches at the 2017 Walker Cup too and playing alongside Morikawa in the Arnold Palmer Cup foursomes. McNealy has been threatening to win on Tour for a while with 3 top 5s to his name. He makes his 3M Open debut but he was also 18th at the John Deere on his last start, which was his 4th top 30 in a row. He gained strokes in every department barring off the tee that week but on his two prior starts he was 1st off the tee. I’m hoping that Morikawa inspiration might be enough to put everything together this week and if it is then this poorer field PGA Tour event won’t take a whole lot of winning if DJ doesn’t turn up fully focused.

Finally I’ll take a massive punt on another member of those US teams Norman Xiong. Xiong was as heralded as Morikawa in their early College days. They paired up on the opening day of the 2017 Walker Cup and set a record with their 8 and 7 win being the biggest margin win in Walker Cup history. Things didn’t go to plan as he left College to turn pro and he really struggled on his limited PGA Tour starts. He then dropped down to the Korn Ferry Tour but lost status there and he has been playing on lower grade Tours and hasn’t played a proper pro event since September. From nowhere he shot a 64 in Monday Qualifying to make this week’s field. Now I have no idea how many events he has tried to qualify for but it seems rather convenient that he goes out and does that the day after Morikawa wins the Open. It’s obviously highly likely that he will miss the cut again but I can’t leave him out at 1000/1 with 8 places. I’ll also have a top 40 bet whenever Betfair add him to the market. Should be around the 13/2 – 7/1 mark and that looks like a nice bet. Betfair are being useless so I’ve changed this to the highest number of places I can find – Top 20 with Skybet at 33/1. Can see the T24th finish now….

Cazoo Open

I’m taking a similar approach in Wales but luckily most of the players I’m backing are also in decent form or played well here last year.

Richard Mansell performed well last week at the Open shooting a couple of 69s on his way to a 74th which was a good effort on his major debut. He also played on that losing European Palmer Cup team in 2017. He hasn’t played here before but his best result was a 12th at the Canary Islands Championship where there is similar space off the tee to Celtic Manor. He led the field off the tee there and hopefully this layout should fit his eye with the driver too being another resort type layout with lots of space. With a positive major debut behind him it seems reasonable to thing he will go well again this week.

Connor Syme enjoyed his two weeks in Wales last year posting back to back top 10s. He probably should have won the Celtic Classic so did well to bounce back the next week and play well confirming how much he enjoyed the course. His recent form has been no better than OK but again Syme featured in that 2017 Walker Cup. He can look at that stacked US team and take confidence from the fact that he and Mcbride took Morikawa and Xiong down to the 18th in the foursomes while he also took Scheffler to the 18th in the singles and Scheffler posted yet another top 10 major finish on Sunday. Again everything seems to be in Syme’s favour for a decent week. His odds of 30/1 aren’t fancy due to his course form but it’s not a strong field at all with Wallace the 9/1 favourite.

Matthew Jordan gets in on virtually exactly the same criteria as Syme. He finished strongly on the Sunday of the Wales Open to record a 3rd place finish, his best result on the European Tour. He was 2nd tee to green and seemed to enjoy the ball-striking test. Jordan’s posted top 20s on his last three starts and he was also on that GB and Ireland Walker Cup team. At the risk of going mad on this link I’m happy enough sticking to it as all players have other reasons to be backing them too. Hopefully their Amateur ties to Morikawa could just give them a little spark and with this poor a field in Wales it looks like fine margins will decide who runs out the winner on Sunday.

Nicolai Hojgaard played on the Danish team that won the Eisenhower Trophy in 2018 and in doing so they were the only team to beat Morikawa’s USA team. Nicolai has been in the shadow of his twin brother the last couple of years as Rasmus bagged two European Tour wins. Neither are the most consistent of players yet and he actually missed both cuts here last year. However he generally enjoys a layout without too much trouble off the tee and with his talent the 80/1 looks perfectly fair in this sort of field.

Summary of bets

3M Open

Doug Ghim – 1pt ew @ 45/1 (1/5 odds 8 places Skybet)

Maverick McNealy – 1pt ew 45/1 (Skybet)

Norman Xiong – 0.5pts ew @ 1000/1 (Skybet) and 1pt Top 20 @ 33/1 (Skybet)

Cazoo Open

Connor Syme – 1pt ew @ 30/1

Matthew Jordan – 1pt ew @ 25/1

Richard Mansell – 1pt ew @ 55/1

Nicolai Hojgaard – 0.75pts ew @ 80/1 (all 1/5 odds 7 places Betfair)

Weekly points advised = 13.5pts

The 149th Open Championship – Betting preview

Posted on July 13, 2021 by thegreek82

It’s been a few weeks since the last preview but it was a very profitable US Open after Jon Rahm finally came good for the blog after backing him constantly in the majors for a couple of years. With him now world no. 1 and playing some brilliant golf he could well add plenty more over the next few years. Rahm’s win almost brought the blog into profit for the year with the results below;

2021 pts advised = 241.50

2021 pts returned = 233.34

The Open

The Open has historically been my favourite major since I was a young kid watching the BBC and listening to the dulcet tones of Peter Alliss however The Masters has caught up in adult life owing to a Sky subscription. Being starved of an Open for 2 years though has properly taken excitement beyond childhood levels and I even have annual leave just to watch it on the TV for 14 hrs on Thursday and Friday! Having such a strong Scottish Open field on a links course last week has only further served to tee-up Royal St. Georges (RSG) this week for both fans and players alike.

The Open returns to the Sandwich course for the 15th time and the first since Darren Clarke triumphed in the wind and rain back in 2011. That sparked a small period of domination of the Open for the over 40s but now with so many world-class younger players around that trend has stopped again. Although it should be noted that we haven’t seen too much bad weather lately which tends to favour the more experienced links players.

Having been on board for Rahm’s first major win last month there is a part of me that wants to reinvest and I definitely believe that he is the man to beat this week. However I’m not sure I can quite wade in at 7/1 given this is links golf. We know he is proven on links courses but simply being on the wrong side of the draw has scuppered many a favourite this week and the chunky stake that would be required for a Rahm win bet would surely be susceptible to any lopsided weather we might see on Thursday or Friday. For those who want to get him onside they are probably better off seeing how the first day or two pans out and even if he starts well you would expect him to have enough world class company that his price won’t contract too much. Alternatively sticking him as the first leg in some cross sport accas and L15s might be the way to side with the favourite this week.

But if not Rahm then who do we back from the top of the market? Well that’s proven to be a difficult conundrum for me this week particularly as I really wanted to back Rahm again. Recent history tells us that the winner is very likely to come from the top 40 in the world rankings but yet that always feels like it applies to the three other majors more than the Open. But yet we have to go back to 2011 and Clarke’s win here to find the last proper surprise winner and given Ben Curtis won the 2003 running at RSG’s then maybe there is something about that course that sets up for the more random occurrences. That’s certainly what lots of player quotes about the course tell us as many have spoken about how the landing areas on the fairways are domed in the middle and straight drives can end up in the lap of the gods as to whether they remain on the fairway or not. They also suggested however that those who are driving it in the 270-290 range are more likely to find flatter fairways which is something that I thought sounded particularly interesting. Of course in order for the bombers to actually struggle with these random bounces the immediate rough needs to be up and it’s hard to say whether that will be the case, but with plenty rain around there will definitely be rough it’s just a question of how far back from the fairway. I am however going to assume with this information that power might not quite be as important as we have seen in most recent majors. Royal St. George’s is largely a 2nd shot course with some small difficult green complexes and I’ll be focusing on those who are proven and experienced at flighting balls down and bouncing them into links greens. That together with the usual sharp short game needed to navigate all the run-offs, hillocks and pot bunkers they will face.

All this together with a look at recent form and the opening betting show led me to realise that The Open looks extremely hard to call, so my main bet from the head of the market is a value based one and that’s Dustin Johnson. Given that he jumped back ahead of Jon Rahm to get back to world no. 1 this week I think all the talk of his poor form has been slightly over played. He’s clearly not at his best but he was a winner in February in a stacked Saudi International and his recent form hasn’t been all that bad. His last three events read 10-19-25 and he has gained strokes in 4 out of 5 departments on his last two starts while that was 5/5 when he finished 10th at the Palmetto Championship. It’s not all that long ago when everyone assumed he was ready to dominate the game for the next few years but golf is seldom that simple. Johnson very nearly won at RSG in 2011 when he contended all the way to the 68th hole when he stuck a long iron out of bounds. DJ is a very different player these days but he has still just got the 2 majors to his name. His powerful long game and ability to shape and flight shots in the wind marked him down as a future Open winner straight away and it’s a little bit surprising that he has never come any closer to winning the Claret Jug since. I think a return to that venue as a far more accomplished player could be exactly what he needs right now and with expectations dampened slightly the 22/1 about the world no.1 looks far too good to ignore. I’ll not get too carried away with the usual hefty major stake however as it must be noted that he could easily have a low key, never in contention week but regardless he is just too big a price around this course.

The rest of the head of the market under 50/1 all looks about right to me so my next pick is all about potential value and that’s Rickie Fowler. There are very few better links exponents in the field this week than Rickie Fowler and he will be hoping we see a proper Open as the week goes on with some wind and a firmer course. Fowler has struggled for form over the last couple of years but he wasn’t in any better form ahead of Portrush in 2019 where he finished 6th. On his most recent start he actually gained strokes in 4/5 areas with the only negative number coming around the green. But we know he excels around links green complexes and he is actually 11th on the PGA Tour around the green this season. Given that department shouldn’t be a problem if he can take that solid long game over to England then we know he putts well on grainy links greens. Fowler won the Scottish Open around Gullane in 2015 and that course has many similarities with RSG as they both feature lots of greens and fairways sculpted into dunes. This will require some blind tee shots and approaches and at his peak Fowler excelled at that aspect of links golf. He has a good Open record missing just one cut in 10 appearances (a bad draw) returning 7 top 30s along the way. He also contended at RSG in 2011 when he battled the weather to finish T5th behind Clarke, DJ, Mickelson and Bjorn. All these experiences will serve him well this week but perhaps the thing most in his favour will be the lack of expectation both from the media/public and that he puts on himself at an Open. A free wheeling Fowler on a classic links layout at 66/1 is far too good an opportunity for me to pass up.

The next pick is a similar price and that’s Robert MacIntyre. He was of obvious interest this week after his 6th place Open finish on his debut at Portrush but after he played nicely last week I had to get him onside. Hailing from Scotland he is more than used to links courses and his stellar long game is built for championship courses as he ranks 7th tee to green on the European Tour this year. That has been proven with solid major form figures this year of 12-49-35. Any potential weather will be no problem to him and as well as good links results he generally plays well in the UK and in particular England where he hasn’t missed a cut and has finished 8th and 2nd on his two British Masters appearances with the 2nd coming at Hillside Links. His 18th place last week looks like an ideal prep run for this with the challenge at Renaissance Club perhaps not as difficult as MacIntyre would like with too much of an emphasis on birdie putting. MacIntyre is by no means a terrible putter but he definitely prefers a sterner test where everyone isn’t putting for birdie on the majority of holes. He also has competitive experience of RSG having played the 2017 Amateur Championship where he shot a stroke-play 69 to qualify for the match play section. The 60/1 isn’t overly fancy but the bookies are taking no chances with him after 2019 and I think he has enough in his favour this week to warrant a nice each way bet with Betfred’s 10 places.

One of the first players I backed for the Open was Matt Kuchar which feels like a strange thing to say given his 2021 form. However Kuchar for me fits very much into that profile of experienced US player who has learned how to play links over the years. I’m not suggesting he is going to win this as everything about his game suggests he is on a downward curve but the same would have been said about Clarke, Els, Mickelson and especially Tom Watson if Cink hadn’t sunk his hopes in 2009. Kuch just feels a little over priced for a player with his ability who had a 2 win PGA Tour season not all that long ago. It’s also just 4 years since his duel with Spieth at Birkdale and he followed that with another top 10 in 2018 at Carnoustie. He made the semi-finals of the World Match Play in March which is a strong enough piece of form to suggest he still retains plenty of ability. He also ranks 35th for driving accuracy and 37th around the green and both will help him this week. I’ll probably end up backing him in a host of markets and doing my money but for the sake of advising on here he is probably worth a very small play on the silly Betfair outright price of 480 together with a small each way bet at 175/1 and a far more sensible top 30 bet at 4/1 . I’ll stake this place bet to return around treble the total Kuchar stakes.

My 2nd Open bet was on Ryan Palmer a few weeks ago well before his Scottish Open exploits almost halved his Exchange price. The thinking with Palmer is that he is a very good wind player and has the sort of calm demeanour required when you get some weather at an Open. I was surprised he did quite so well last week on an easier links course but that suggests he adjusted to the grainy links greens which is a huge bonus for a streaky but fairly average putter. The stats confirmed that as he ranked 4th for putting gaining over 7 strokes on the greens. Historically when he putts that well he contends so I’m expecting another good performance on a course where he finished 30th in 2011 with the highlight an opening 68 to sit inside the top 10. His Exchange price has contracted but he remains a very fair 100/1 with most bookmakers and that looks like a nice enough price to get involved.

Finally I had to back Danny Willett at a fairly insulting price of 400.0 on the Exchange and I’ll add each way and top 30 bets. His form and ability don’t really warrant the prices and he seems to have been dismissed after a Scottish Open missed cut. But on his 2nd last PGA Tour start he was 26th in a very strong Memorial field while he was 11th on his last start in England at the Belfry in May. If we throw in 6th place finishes at both St. Andrews and Portrush then he starts to look interesting at 150/1 but that’s before the sweetener! Willett won the English Amateur around RSG in 2007 and while it’s obviously dated form I doubt that it’s going to hurt any having winning experience at the course. It didn’t help him much in 2011 but he did open with a 69 and he’s a Masters winner now. I think a player of his talent and links ability has been dismissed too easily in most markets so he looks worth siding with this week.

Others of interest who didn’t quite make the cut are Paul Casey and Min Woo Lee. Casey has been well backed and while I think he will go well he is beginning to look a little short for someone without an Open top 10 since 2010. Min Woo Lee really needs to be respected after last week’s win and a solid showing in 2017’s Amateur Championship but going back to back in this quality of field would be extremely hard and he has already been backed into just 100/1. I’ll be keeping a close eye on both though and will be keen to see what tee times they get as potential first round leader bets.

First Round Leader bets

First up is a fairly speculative but also obvious one with Dean Burmester. The South African has bags of ability but his aggressive style might not be ideal for RSG over the course of 4 (or 2) days. However he signed off with a back 9 of 28 at the Renaissance Club on Sunday and ranked 2nd for approaches for the event. Burmy is a great putter normally and with an early 7:19am tee time he looks interesting at 150/1 if he can hold that back 9 form for another round.

In a similar fashion I decided first round leader might be the way to play Min Woo Lee. There is every chance he picks up where he left off in the soft Thursday conditions. His round looked effortless on Sunday firing at every flag and putting brilliantly. Given we hadn’t seen too much of him prior to Scotland maybe he found something ahead of that round and he also looks dangerous from a 7:30am tee time at 100/1.

I’m also going to double up on Ryan Palmer who has always been a very fast starter. He opened in Scotland with a 66 to sit T2nd after round round 1 and then he closed with a 64. If the putter stays hot he can hope for another good Thursday at 80/1 from a 7:41am tee off.

The breeze looks to be consistent in the 12-18mph range all day so the morning starters should get the best of the course. However we know links winds can drop away in the evening very quickly so I’ll finish up with a more solid afternoon pick. Webb Simpson shot a 66 at Royal St Georges on his Open debut in 2011 which was good enough for T3rd. He would fall back in the weather to finish 16th and he struggled the next few years but he has some more sneaky recent Open form as he was 12th in 2018 and 30th in 2019. Again he started quickly at Portush shooting 68 to sit in a tie for 3rd after day 1. With his driving accuracy guaranteed if the rough really is up he will love it and he could fire another low Thursday links round at 60/1.

Summary of bets

Dustin Johnson – 2.5pts ew @ 22/1 (1/5 odds 10 places Betfair)

Rickie Fowler – 1.25pts ew @ 66/1 (1/5 odds 10 places Betfred)

Robert MacIntyre – 1.25pt ew @ 60/1 (Betfred)

Ryan Palmer – 0.75pts ew @ 100/1 (1/5 odds 11 places Skybet) and 2pts Top 30 @ 21/10

Matt Kuchar – 0.75pts ew @ 175/1 (Betfred), 0.25pts win @ 480 (Betfair Exchange) and 2pts Top 30 @ 4/1

Danny Willett – 0.75pts ew @ 150/1 (Skybet), 0.25pts win @ 400 (Betfair Exchange) and 2pts Top 30 @ 7/2

First Round Leader bets

Dean Burmester – 0.5pts ew @ 150/1

Min Woo Lee – 0.5pts ew @ 100/1

Ryan Palmer – 0.5pts ew @ 80/1

Webb Simpson – 1pt ew @ 60/1 (all 1/5 odds 8 places Betfair)

Weekly pts advised = 26pts

US Open 2021 – Bets

Posted on June 15, 2021 by thegreek82

I don’t have a lot of time for writing much here this week so it’s mainly going to be the bets. Will update ~~profit and~~ loss after US Open.

This week we head in to the 3rd major of the year and back to Torrey Pines for the first time since Tiger’s famous 2008 play-off win against Rocco Mediate. We do see the course every February though for 3 rounds of the Farmers Insurance Open.

Torrey South is a brute of a course (7685 yards) that rewards elite tee to green golf. It’s long and narrow with fairly thick rough even in February and on top of that these are some of the smallest and firmest greens on Tour. All these details are likely to be accentuated by a summer US Open slot. The greens are the tricky poa annua while the rough is the lesser seen quirky kikuyu grass so experience of the course or similar grasses should be advantageous.

I’ve tried not to over complicate matters and mainly looked at elite tee to green golfers who have some positive results either at Torrey or similar west coast poa annua greens like Riviera or Pebble Beach. Stats like total driving and strokes gained: tee to green will be crucial and given the thick rough and length of the course any approach stats from 175-225 yards are worth a look together with approaches from the rough as everyone will miss plenty of these narrow fairways. Therefore those who are accomplished at taking their medicine and just finding any portion of the green from the rough will fare better than those who are more aggressive over 4 tough rounds at Torrey.

A lot will be said about Jon Rahm this week as the Covid-recovering favourite and as many people will dismiss him at the odds as will back him. It will come as no surprise to anyone that he’s my main bet this week and at the odds he probably should just be a win bet. Although such is his consistency I’m going to play the outright on the Exchange and also have a stakes saver top 10 bet. Rahm is a winner around the course, sits 2nd on Tour tee-to-green, 6th for GIR over 200 yards and also has the most top 10s this year despite his equipment change. It’s testament to his raw ability that he has managed to switch so seamlessly and while he isn’t yet a winner this season that is unquestionably just a case of bad luck having been 6 shots clear at Memorial before his positive Covid test. Quite simply he is the man to beat and he has been banging on the door in majors for the last 3 years. I think his time has finally come and while the price definitely won’t be for everyone I’d hate to miss out so I’m happy enough with the 11.0 on the Exchange

Next up is local lad Patrick Cantlay who has looked a major winner in waiting such is his love of long difficult championship courses. Cantlay is two places below Rahm tee to green in 4th and he was the man who took advantage of Rahm’s misfortune at Muirfield Village. That was a ball-striking clinic from the would be front 3 and we could well see the same names on top of the leaderboard again come Sunday. Although Morikawa’s lack of power puts me off him a little this week. Despite ranking 4th tee to green that’s mainly the result of him being a golfer with no real weakness. He is very good at everything and manages his game well so any mistake he makes tend to be a bogey rather than a double and therefore his game is ideal for a 72 hole US Open grind. It’s surprising then that he’s yet to post a top 10 in the US Open but that’s surely just a matter of time and given his form I really like his chances of doing that this week.

Tony Finau’s form at Torrey together with his long game consistency make him a bet at 28/1. Despite him not having won for 5 years few would be too surprised if he ran out a comfortable US Open winner around a course like this where his 5-15ft putting shouldn’t be as important as a regular week. Again referring to the PGA Tour strokes gained: tee to green Finau sits another two spots further down from Cantlay in 6th position. He did everything but win earlier in the season and with Finau it’s not a case of can he win again it’s when will he win again. He was runner-up here in February and I’d expect another contending performance this week at a fair each way price.

Finally my only outsider is Sam Burns again after he was forced to withdraw at the US PGA when fancied to go well. A US Open test isn’t perhaps as ideal as a US PGA this early in Burns career but it’s the west coast factor together with his odds of 80/1 that means I can’t leave him out. Burns led the field at Riviera a merry dance for 2 rounds earlier in the year and after a wobble he still came back strong to finish T2nd on the Sunday. This was proof to me of what sort of course Burns thrives on and the stats back up the suitability of a long and difficult championship course. He sits 42nd on Tour tee-to-green which is solid but he is 10th in GIR over 200 yards, 4th in rough proximity from 175-200 yards and leads the Tour in approaches over 200 yards from the rough. These all scream Torrey Pines to me but he isn’t the best around the greens so it’s not a given that he fully takes to the scrambling task this week but he does tend to chip better from proper rough rather than tightly mown run-offs. He is also putting very well this year and he has finished 40th, 49th and then 18th on his last three Torrey starts. That 18th this year could have been a lot better too as he sat T3rd going into the final round where he struggled with a 75. There is a slight worry that he still isn’t fully fit after his PGA withdrawal but he teed it up and played 4 rounds at Memorial so I’m hoping he is fit and if that’s the case there were few players in better form ahead of the PGA so he could be a little over priced at 80/1.

I’ve also had 3 place only bets with the first on Chez Reavie who bounced back to form last time out with a 14th which stopped a run of missed cuts. It was very timely as Reavie has some strong form on tough championship courses in California, particularly at Riviera which also has kikuyu fairways and poa greens. He has contended there on a couple of occasions and is not only an accurate driver but also a very good long iron player, particularly out of the rough (18th in rough proximity) and this bodes well for Torrey. He was 7th tee to green last week and if he has turned things around he looks over priced in a number of markets but I’ll play it safe with a top 40.

Louis Oosthuizen has some serious major form as everyone is well aware but he actually hasn’t missed a cut in one since the 2017 Open and has only missed 2 of his last 28 major cuts. His putting problems over the years seem to have been sorted this year so if he swings anything like he is capable of here then he should go well again. He was brought up playing on kikuyu grass while he went very close on the poa greens of Chambers Bay in 2015 and was 7th in his last California US Open in 2019. He has been in the top 30 in 11 of his last 30 majors but with the putter working well we can be greedier and play the top 20 market.

Justin Rose has won around Torrey Pines and won arguably the US Open at Merion which is probably the last time we saw genuinely long rough with narrow fairways. So with his sneaky 2021 major form I wanted to get him onside somehow. He will need to hit the ball a lot better tee to green this week but a top 20 looks very likely for someone who was made for championship courses before his rather ill-fated equipment change. He is around 3.0 on the Exchange and with bookmakers.

1st round leader

Rather than simply side with thosse who have had recent low first round numbers and an early tee time I’ve based my bets on low Thursday rounds in California this week given the slightly unique nature of both the kikuyu and poa annua. Jason Kokrak has been well backed in the outright market but I’m not sure I’d be terribly confident of him getting over the line in a major. However flying out of the blocks on Thursday at a course that suits seems hugely possible. Kokrak leads the Tour in first round scoring for 2021 but he has also averaged 69.3 on his last 12 California Thursdays. He won his last start and has top 30s in his last three Torrey appearances. Should go well and with his lowest round coming on Thursday in 6 of his last 8 events there is every chance that happens again so the 50/1 looks fair.

Patrick Reed has an even better recent California Thursday record as he averages 68.4 for his last 9 events. He won around Torrey earlier this year and has a solid US Open record. Again he is fancied to go well this week and his US Open Thursday average is 69.6 which tells us he is comfortable going out and playing well on day one in his national Open. Betfair’s 35/1 with 8 places looks like a solid each way play on Reed from the 1:36pm tee time

Finally I’m going with Scottie Scheffler again in this market having threatened to return the place money at the US PGA. His recent California round 1 scoring is even lower at 67.33 and with top 20s in his last 4 majors he has shown that long championship courses suit him perfectly. Quite how well he will take to this task I’m not sure as he has missed both his Farmers Insurance cuts to date but he seems to thrive in majors and a good opening round looks likely if nothing more beyond that.

Summary of Bets

Jon Rahm – 5pts win @ 11 and 3.5pts Top 10 @ 2.56 (Both Betfair Exchange)

Patrick Cantlay – 2pts ew @ 25/1 (1/5 odds 9 places WH)

Tony Finau – 2pts ew @ 28/1 (1/5 odds 9 places WH)

Sam Burns – 1pt ew @ 80/1 (1/5 odds 10 places Betfair SB)

Chez Reavie – 2pts Top 40 @ 3/1 (general)

Louis Oosthuizen – 2pts Top 20 @ 3.0 (Betfair Ex)

Justin Rose – 2pts Top 20 @ 3.0 (Betfair Ex)

1st round leader

Jason Kokrak – 0.75pts ew @ 50/1

Patrick Reed – 0.75pts ew @ 35/1

Scottie Scheffler – 0.5pts ew @ 50/1 (all 1/5 odds 8 places Betfair)

Weekly points advised = 28

Memorial and European Open – Some bets

Posted on June 1, 2021 by thegreek82

Just when it looked like Morikawa and Rose could both place on Sunday within 30 minutes or so they both lost their chance so it was a little bit frustrating. Kieffer never featured and missed the cut in Denmark where Bernd Wiesberger confirmed just how much better he is than the rank and file of the European Tour with another easy win. It’s truly crazy to think that he now has 8 ET wins but hasn’t even come close to playing Ryder Cup. You’d imagine that will change this year but the competition is rife so it’s hard to say for sure unless he keeps this form going all summer.

This week we have the Memorial from Muirfield Village and a rather quirky 54-hole European Open in Germany. (Saturday to Monday just to make things even more strange!)

2021 pts advised = 204.50

2021 pts returned = 159.55

Memorial

I had to go back in again on Martin Laird this week after noticing how good his approaches were at the US PGA. Not only did he lead the field with 11.677 strokes gained but he was some 3.5 strokes ahead of 2nd and also more than 3 strokes better than his previous career highest figure. What was even better still about that 11.677 was that if you go 3.5 strokes further back from 2nd place in approaches then you will cover the next 15 players so he was miles ahead of an elite field. Obviously it is going to take a lot more for Laird to get competitive here than just posting career approach numbers but at the very least it tells us he is back hitting his irons as well as ever. His course form isn’t too flash but Muirfield has always rewarded ball-strikers and on his last appearance here he was 9th around the greens and 23rd putting on them. A repeat of that with anything like his Kiawah approach play and 200/1 will look massive come Sunday.

Kyle Stanley has also been putting up impressive long game numbers recently (nothing new there!) and while he’s not a player anyone enjoys backing I feel like at 100/1 he warrants a bet here. He was first for both approaches and tee to green last week at Colonial and his approach number was also the best he has ever posted which for ball-striking machine I thought that was worth taking notice of. With a 2nd and 3rd already around Muirfield Village the 100/1 looks like a rock solid each way bet.

European Open

I’ve just had two plays on a couple of outsiders here firstly Steven Brown who led the field for GIR last week in Denmark. He’s not the best of drivers so he might come unstuck around this monster of a course but I just thought 200/1 for someone who was clearly fully in control oh his iron game last week might not be the worst of bets here. Scoring isn’t easy but the fairways are wide so hopefully his driving won’t matter too much and a half decent short game performance could see him make the final round and after that anything could happen with a final round shootout where the whole field could be separated by just 6 or 7 shots. This to me sounds like a good chance to play bigger odds golfers who are swinging it well as a hot putter on Saturday could make all the difference.

Julien Guerrier isn’t as big a price as his results have been trending recently going 40th-30th and then 15th last week at Himmerland. He was inside the top 8 for total driving on all three of those starts while he was 15th for approaches and 3rd around the green last week. It’s maybe asking a lot for a player who is yet to properly contend on the European Tour but he posted comfortably his best ever tee to green strokes gained figure last week and again the 54 hole event may help him if he can find one good putting round when it matters.

I like former champion Jordan Smith’s chances this week arriving off a 3rd place but his price has gone and it wasn’t even fancy when it opened either! That was his first top 10 since September and he hasn’t really contended in a long time so 33/1 makes very little appeal as a single. He looks a decent option for any cross doubles this week however.

Summary of bets

Memorial

Martin Laird – 0.75pts ew @ 200/1 (1/5 odds 7 places Skybet) and 1.5pts Top 30 @ 4/1

Kyle Stanley – 0.75pts ew @ 100/1 (1/5 odds 7 places Skybet)

European Open

Julien Guerrier – 1pt ew @ 80/1 (1/5 odds 7 places Boylesports)

Steven Brown – 0.5pts ew @ 200/1 (1/5 odds 7 places Betfair) and 1pt Top 20 @ 8/1

Weekly points advised = 8.5pts

Charles Schwab Challenge (Colonial) and Made in Denmark – Bets

Posted on May 25, 2021 by thegreek82

After a succesful US PGA I thought I’d better try to keep things going with some sort of write-up this week. 7 of the 15 bets brought returns for 61.49pts back from 28pts outlay. It was just the blog’s 6th profitable Major out of 23 since I started which is pretty poor but it was the 4th from 7 US PGAs and that event alone is showing 61% ROI. That leaves 2021 creeping back towards level but I’m going to need a winner to stop the run of places for that to happen.

2021 pts advised = 193.50

2021 pts returned = 159.55

Colonial

This event is all about keeping the ball in play and then getting your wedges and short irons as close to the hole as possible before holing somewhere above your share of putts. So it doesn’t scream Collin Morikawa who usually holes a lot less than his share however such is the quality of his wedges and short to mid irons he was right on top of my list for this week, and that was before I remembered that he was runner-up in this last year. At a course like this it really is just a matter of whether he can hole enough putts to win rather than finish 2nd-8th so he looks like a rock solid each way bet even at 14/1.

I also can’t leave Justin Rose out considering the way he is putting at the moment. He led the field last week from 5ft-15ft and given his love of this course (2018 winner and never missed a cut) I’m hoping it will eek out the appropriate long game improvement for him to get back into proper contention again. The 30/1 is far from fancy but I like his chances this week.

Finally I think Matt Wallace should really enjoy Colonial. He missed the cut last year but putted quite well and was still finding his feet on the PGA Tour. This time around he sits 10th for approaches on Tour while his putting improved a little last week as he ranked 27th on the greens. He’s the sort of streaky player that should enjoy getting plenty of birdie looks as it will help him find his range and maybe get the putter back on track. The struggles with the putter are very much a PGA Tour thing as 6 of his 10 professional wins in Europe came with a winning total higher than -15. His price feels like a slight over reaction to a poor performance last week when expected to go well so he looks a good each way price at 60/1 to bounce back.

Made In Denmark

I’m just backing Max Kieffer here who I felt didn’t really warrant the hike in his price up to 80/1. He missed his last two cuts but prior to that were two runner-up finishes where he played some of the best golf of his career. He has always been hugely talented and that 1st MC can probably be attributed to running on empty. The 2nd one he missed it on the number and after a couple of weeks off I’m expecting to see the same strong tee to green game we saw in Austria. He has only played here once and missed the cut but there has always been a degree of cross-over form between Himmerland and Diamond CC and the man from Dusseldorf should have no issue with the poor forecast.

Summary of bets

Colonial

Collin Morikawa – 3pts ew @ 14/1 (1/5 odds 8 places WH)

Justin Rose – 1pt ew @ 28/1 (1/5 odds 8 places WH and Betfred)

Matt Wallace – 1pt ew @ 60/1 (1/5 odds 8 places Betfred)

Made In Denmark

Max Kieffer – 1pt ew @ 66/1 (1/5 odds 7 places Betfair)

Weekly points advised = 12

2021 US PGA Championship – Betting Preview

Posted on May 17, 2021 by thegreek82

I thought I’d have a few weeks off in order to maybe try to get a better handle on things ahead of the year’s 2nd major so hopefully we can find some profits this week. Those big price near misses earlier in the season have left the results looking rather miserable when a Burns win (premature tipulation!) or a Westwood win would have had them looking very different. But that’s very much the nature of golf betting so on we go to Kiawah Island and the 2021 US PGA.

2021 pts advised = 165.50

2021 pts returned = 98.06

US PGA CHAMPIONSHIP

The US PGA Championship takes its now customary, if a little weird, slot in May as the 2nd major of the season. I’m still getting used to it but if we believe much of the hype regarding Kiawah Island this is going to play as much like a US Open as a US PGA. I’m not for believing that though personally and while the course is very long I expect the winning score will very much be dependent on how strong the wind gets. This was the case in 2012 as McIlroy romped to victory by 8 shots. It’s easy to assume that he just handled the wind best of all but it should be noted that the wind was at its worst by far on the Friday and he played in the calm side of the draw on Thursday so those who didn’t start well had next to no chance of contending with only 4 rounds under par on the Friday. While the weekend was still quite breezy the course that they found themselves on was playing long and soft which is what McIlroy is all about and ultimately it made the fairways nice and wide for him as he ranked 42nd in driving accuracy as oppose to just 156th for the season. He was also probably the best player in the world at the time but he certainly had his favoured conditions. The only confusing thing then about the 2012 event is why so many shorter hitting Europeans were at the top of the leaderboard? Most of them either took advantage of the right side of the draw on Thursday or the easier course set up on Sunday.

Essentially what I’m taking from my waffle above is that at 7876 yards long and with the course apparently soft enough this year I think we want players in the McIlroy mould. That’s not to say bombers but I’m focusing on those who can drive the ball long and reasonably straight and also those who possess strong long iron games as there are some brutish par 4s (6 over 450 yards) as well as some par 5s that won’t be reachable for everyone. I’d want them to be proven on long championship courses in elite fields too while any course that McIlroy has won on suggests to me at least that putting prowess can’t be hugely important.

What I’ve described is essentially a classic US PGA course then and ultimately I think it will play like one but just potentially a very wind one (wind only expected to be a steady 8-12mph as I write). One other point of note is that Kiawah is a Pete Dye design and while it is considerably longer than his courses on regular rotation it still has plenty Dye trademarks. It was enough to find me Carl Petterson as 1st round leader in 2012 off the back of his win that April at Harbour Town. It might be some 600 yards shorter but both courses require control of the golf ball and a fair amount of strategy off the tee. Despite Kiawah’s greens being a bit bigger they feature the classic subtle Dye runoffs which can make the greens play a lot smaller than they are in theory. Despite the sand based soil and a coastal breeze the course doesn’t actually play all that much like a links course. Most of the greens are raised so the ball can’t be flighted down and ran in so it will very much have to be played through the air. This will suit those that strike their ball confidently in the wind rather than those capable of playing lots of nice links golf shots. Finally the course is laid to sea paspalum which isn’t the most common of grasses on the PGA Tour and plays a little differently so form on other paspalum layouts is definitely worth a look. (Mayakoba, Puerto Rico, Corales Puntacana on PGA TOur and a load more on Korn Ferry)

If you do fancy a shorter hitter then they had better be someone who either finds plenty of fairways, hits brilliant long iron/hybrids or can play very well from the rough. Ideally all three of those!

My first bet for this was Sam Burns around the time that I was berating myself for missing out on his Valspar win. I thought there was a good chance that he would shorten in price so tweeted about his chances a couple of weeks ago before mentioning him again last week as his price continued to get slashed from Monday onwards as people realised he had some strong TPC Craig Ranch form and might contend. Thankfully he didn’t win as it’s not ideal for a young inexperienced golfer pitching up looking to contend at a major coming off a W. Instead he finished 2nd which should retain plenty fire in his belly and hopefully not lift expectations unreasonably high. The US PGA always used to require strong current form in it’s previous August slot and for the strongest field of the year I don’t expect that to change in May. Few are playing better than Burns and lots of Pete Dye lovers have played well and won at the Valspar. Two of the players who finished T3rd in 2012 in particular as Bradley always plays well at there and Petterson won his first PGA Tour event at Innisbrook. Burns has also played well at RBC Heritage with a top 10 on his debut in 2019. His Korn Ferry Tour win also came an hour or two down the road on the same coast at Savannah just over the border in Georgia so he is comfortable on the south east coast. But perhaps the most telling piece of form that makes me think he can go well here is his first 36 holes at Riviera. That’s another difficult championship course and he led an elite field a merry dance for 36 holes. Despite him wobbling over the weekend you can’t do that unless you have some serious ability. From a stats point of view he also stands out as he ranks 2nd in par 4 scoring over 500 yards and 7th from 450-500 yards. He is 6th in approaches over 200 yards, 4th in total driving, 10th in SG:approaches and 18th tee to green. As another bonus he is also putting very well at the moment having gained strokes on the greens on his last two starts even ranking 3rd for his win at the Valspar.

I think he has a great chance this week but the annoying aspect of all this is that he is now 40/1 and I’m not too convinced that I can advise anyone who isn’t already on to back him at that price. The only hope is that the few readers who still take this blog seriously saw my tweets and scrambled on at the bigger prices. I’m going to include him in these bets though as I’ve backed him and I do like his chances of contending.

My 2nd bet was Paul Casey who I couldn’t quite believe was available at 50/1. This course looks right up his street and he’s in fine form in 2021 too which makes the price feel all the more odd. For the last few years he would always go off a little under priced in these events while also never really being convincing enough in contention to warrant a bet. He has looked to have more conviction the last couple of years and tends to get his Sunday putts to the hole. Those who watched Richard Bland finally get his win on Saturday would surely have noticed from very early in the round that his putting was less tentative. Such a small change can make a massive difference and Bland is probably regretting not having been more aggressive on the greens years ago. Casey can hopefully benefit from a similar tactic and his altogether more relaxed approach to the game. He currently sits in 4th for total driving, 6th in GIR and 10th in strokes gained: approaches and that is a brilliant combination for any long championship course. He missed the cut by a mile back in 2012 but we can dismiss that as he was on a run of 10 missed cuts and playing terribly. This year he has some excellent results, on his last proper windy start he was 5th at Pebble Beach while he was also 5th at Pete Dye’s Sawgrass and 8th earlier in the season at the American Express. Casey isn’t a player I like backing but that means I’m always less worried if he blows out and misses the cut as I wouldn’t be a fan. But he looks to me like the best piece of value in a very smart US PGA book so I’ll have my largest bet on PC this week.

It will be no surprise to learn that I like Rahm the most from the favourites here and there is a big part of me scared to miss out should he win but I just have a niggling feeling that this Major might not be won by the very top of the market. Viktor Hovland has been at the top of my shortlist for this for a few months but his opening price wasn’t great and he’s been cut further so its hard to advise backing him at around 18-22/1 considering he doesn’t even own a major top 10 yet. So instead I’ve gone a little further down the market for my next three bets and they are all very promising members of the new generation whose games are ideal for a long US PGA test.

Scottie Scheffler contended on his first PGA start last year and he finished in the top 20 in both his Masters appearances. That shouldn’t really be too much of a surprise given his game is almost custom built for long championship courses. That hasn’t been missed with the bookies as 40/1 is perhaps a little short for a player yet to win on Tour but getting his first win here doesn’t seem that unrealistic. His approach play will have to be back to its best this week but his brilliant driving will allow him to do that as he leads the Tour in total driving so he should be playing from the fairways more often than most with shorter irons than most and that should be a huge advantage around Kiawah so I wanted to get him on the team.

Sung-jae Im has been a revelation since he joined the Tour by just playing golf every single week, making birdies for fun and just generally loving being a professional golfer. His recent form isn’t as flashy as he arrives off a MC but if we look at his run earlier in the season we see strong form on windy courses and Dye designs. He was 8th at the Honda, 17th at Sawgrass and 13th at Harbour Town. Throw in a Korn Ferry win and runner-up at two different sea paspalum Bahamas courses and this layout looks like it should suit him so at 66/1 I’m happy to ignore one missed cut in the hope he bounces back.

Will Zalatoris showed on his Masters debut what he can do in elite company on championship courses and I’m expecting more of the same this week. Zalatoris ranks 7th tee to green on Tour and despite what Paul McGinley thinks his short game is perfectly good enough to be on the PGA Tour and he actually ranks 82nd around the green and 123rd in putting. Not the best but plenty good enough to get competitive on a course like this with his long game and straight-forward greens. His form has dropped off a little since that Masters debut but he bounced back with a 17th place finish last week and given he was also 6th at the US Open he could just be a big time player who is already trying to peak for the majors. He will have to keep it a bit straighter off the tee this week but at 50/1 I think he looks a solid each way bet to keep that run of major top 10s going.

Next up are a couple of huge outsiders. Martin Laird looks a big price at 350/1 at Kiawah given he is in decent form and played well here in 2012. While he finished down the field he ranked 1st in total driving and 3rd in scrambling. It wasn’t even the wind that wrecked his chances as he shot a solid 74 on Friday but the rain did for him on Saturday with a 79. As a winner this season and ranking 9th for the season in ball-striking I think he looks far too big in the outright market but also the top 40 market at 5/1.

Jason Dufner’s long game has been back somewhere near it’s best on his last two starts so he should relish a US PGA Championship with relatively easy greens. He hasn’t had a top 10 in nearly two years but he was 3rd off the tee and 11th tee to green last week. Back at his best he was 27th here in 2012 but he was also 5th at Dye’s Whistling Straits and runner-up to Bradley in 2012 on another long course at Atlanta Athletic Club. The each way bet is obviously speculative but I’ll also have a more solid looking top 40 bet at 9/2.

I’ll finish with two place only bets that both look to be value plays. Keegan Bradley has been in fine form lately and playing this well he will love a return to the course where he finished 3rd as defending champion in 2012. I think a top 30 is the absolute least we can expect from him so at 2/1 that looks a cracking bet. I also need to side with Stewart Cink as the Harbour Town winner last month. As I mentioned earlier Carl Petterson went close to winning this in 2012 after his Harbour Town success so with the way that Cink is striking the ball again he looks a great place bet to finish inside the top 40 at 23/10. I might have to consider playing these two in the first round leader market and I’ll be back with some bets in those markets tomorrow.

1st round leader

I’ve gone with four bets all in the morning here as last time in 2012 the wind got up as the day went on and that’s a reasonable assumption for such a course. I’ll double up on Keegan Bradley who is a fairly obvious play in the first round market but does tend to be fairly reliable on Thursdays on courses that suit. He is 2nd on Tour over the last 6 months in first round scoring and I’ve covered his course form above. He’s not a fancy price as everyone knows his first round ability but an each way play at 50/1 with 7 places looks like a sound investment.

Emiliano Grillo really should enjoy himself this week on a course that will thoroughly test everyone’s long game. There are few more reliable tee to green merchants than Grillo but his short game and mental side can leave him struggling over the weekend as things heat up. He has been known to fire some low Thursday rounds when the putter obliges and he sits 20th on Tour over the last 3 months in round 1 scoring. Grillo won around Pete Dye’s Sawgrass Valley course on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2015 while he has strong form on paspalum courses. I think he should put 4 solid rounds together and hopefully his best round will come on Thursday.

Matt Jones has some strong 2021 form on Thursdays as his 61 on a blustery day one at the Honda Classic was perhaps the round of the year on the PGA Tour. It was enough to set him up for a long overdue 2nd PGA Tour win and if we look back through his career we see that he shot a 68 around Whistling Straits on Thursday which was good enough for T3rd. The course is maybe a little long for him but he’s playing well and sits 10th in round 1 scoring over the last 6 months. He also has an early tee time and looks a nice each way bet at 90/1 with Betfair’s 8 places.

I also can’t resist following the same plan that worked in 2012 by backing the Harbour Town winner in the first round leader market so I’ll go with Stewart Cink as well at 100/1 with 8 places. He flew out of the blocks that week and can easily go low here the way he is hitting the ball this year.

Summary of bets

Sam Burns – 1.5pts ew @ 40/1–80/1 (1/5 odds 10 places at 40 but hopefully people are on at 66-80 with just 6 places)

Paul Casey – 2pts ew @ 50/1 (1/5 odds 11 places Skybet)

Scottie Scheffler – 1.5pts ew @ 40/1 (1/5 odds 11 places Skybet)

Sung-Jae Im – 1pt ew @ 66/1 (1/5 odds 10 places Boylesports)

Will Zalatoris – 1pt ew @ 50/1 (1/5 odds 10 places Betfair)

Martin Laird – 0.5pts ew @ 350/1 (1/5 odds 11 places Skybet) and 1.5pts Top 40 @ 5/1

Jason Dufner – 0.5pts ew @ 500/1 (1/5 odds 11 places Skybet) and 2pts Top 40 @ 9/2 Skybet

Stewart Cink – 2pts Top 40 @ 23/10 Betfair

Keegan Bradley – 2.5 pts Top 30 @ 2/1 Betfair

1st round leader

Keegan Bradley – 0.5pts ew @ 50/1 (1/5 odds 7 places Skybet)

Emiliano Grillo – 0.5pts ew @ 90/1

Matt Jones – 0.5pts ew @ 90/1

Stewart Cink – 0.5pts ew @ 100/1 (all 1/5 odds 8 places Betfair)

Weekly points advised = 28pts

Valspar Championship and Tenerife Open – Bets

Posted on April 27, 2021 by thegreek82

A bit of a washout last week as all the players in Gran Canaria struggled to go low enough and the course was too easy for the wind to become a big enough factor over the weekend. Rose and Stenson just played one average round at the wrong time on moving day and that made it very difficult for them to contend on the Sunday.

Valspar

Just a couple of quick bets here. I was impressed with how both Louis Oosthuizen and Charl Schwartzel played last week as they lost in a play-off to Cam Smith and Marc Leishman. It wasn’t just visually either as Louis was 2nd in strokes gained: tee to green while Charl was 5th. I think the way in which they lost will spur them on and they should both be full of confidence at a course they have enjoyed before. Schwartzel is a former winner here in 2016 while Louis was runner-up in 2019. It’s always been a tee-to green test at the Copperhead course so poorer putters normally do just fine. However Oosty’s putting has actually improved out of sight this year as he ranks 3rd on Tour. Sadly none of this has been missed by the bookmakers but saying someone like Louis is too short for never having won in the US is very different to other non-winners. Oosthuizen is a major winner and 14 time winner around the world and I wouldn’t worry at all about him getting over the line in this event, even after that wayward play-off drive. He is all class and looks a great each way price in this sort of field at 30/1 to “rise up” again.

With Schwartzel’s form having been considerably poorer the last few years his price is a lot bigger at 100/1 and he looks an equally good bet with William Hill’s 8 places.

Tenerife Open

With a similar assignment to last week in Gran Canaria I thought that leaderboard was as good a starting place as any and it threw up Marcel Schneider who was 8th last week. To be honest he isn’t someone I know a great deal about but I like the fact he also leads the Tour for Par 3 scoring as there are six of the short holes at the Adeje course being used this week. He also gained strokes in every area of the game last week and we know he can play in the wind and go low as he shot 66-65-65 from Friday onwards. Looks an interesting play at 125/1

I’ll also have a small bet on Ashun Wu who was 21st last week in Gran Canaria after a 61 on Saturday. It was his 4th top 35 in a row and he is a winner at the Diamond Club where the last winner at this Tenerife course Kenneth Ferrie also won. This course is considerably easier but given Ferrie is a bit of a left field player I thought it was worth having an interest on 3 time winner Wu who looks to be simmering nicely.

Summary of bets

Valspar

Louis Oosthuizen – 1pt ew @ 30/1

Charl Schwartzel – 1pt ew @ 100/1 (both 1/5 odds 8 places WH)

Tenerife

Marcel Schneider – 0.75pts ew @ 125/1 (1/5 odds 7 places Betfair)

Ashun Wu – 0.5pts ew @ 90/1 (1/5 odds 7 places general)

Weekly points advised = 6.5

Gran Canaria Lopesan Open

Posted on April 20, 2021 by thegreek82

A week off last week so there was no Masters review. It was a decent enough week with Spieth, Rahm and Harman FRL almost recouping all of the stakes. If Ryan Palmer hadn’t managed to take a 6 at both the closing par 3s then it could have been a lot better! He went from hovering around the places down to 34th to miss out on the top 30 which had looked fairly nailed on most of the weekend.

Despite Spieth and Rahm’s short prices they justified their selections. Both of them have serious records at the course as it’s not an easy place to return to each year and finish inside the top 10. It’s surely just a matter of time before Spieth is wearing another green jacket while Rahm could well be a major champion before we get back to Augusta next year.

2021 results to follow

Gran Canaria Lopesan Open

I wanted to get something posted for this event as I went on holiday to Gran Canaria some years ago and spent a fair bit of time down around the Maspalomas/Meloneras area where the course is this week. Where I live in the north of Scotland I’m used to a fairly constant wind even on an otherwise very sunny day. This was like being back home except we also had temperatures around 30c rather than 13c! There was very little let up and I’m expecting the wind to be the most important factor at a resort course that looks set to play as short as 6700 yards. The fairways look typically wide for a resort course and the rough appears minimal. A lot of the holes run through trees rather than the exposed coast line but even then they don’t look to be too tight and I imagine this will play as a 2nd shot course where giving yourself as many birdie putts as possible will be crucial. So I’ve gone for proven wind players this week first and foremost as everything else should be quite straight-forward.

My first bet is Chris Wood as he was already on the radar having finished 1st for approaches last week in Austria (he gained 11.990 strokes, his best figure ever). Wood has struggled with back and wrist injuries and loss of form over the last few years so his 21st place finish in Austria was his best finish since 2018. He didn’t drive the ball well at all but most players in the field could probably leave the driver in the bag here on the majority of the holes if they need to, especially if their iron game is working as well as Wood’s. He first announced himself in the 2008 Open at Royal Birkdale when contending as an Amateur before finishing T3. He has always been a strong wind player and at his best was a very good putter. He is also proven playing on windy tree-lined courses where distance control is difficult with a swirling wind as he has won around Wentworth. It’s a lot to ask of him having not contended for a long time but he is a 3-time European Tour winner and I don’t think he could ask for a better course to be playing this week after his best result in 3 years. He is as big as 150/1 in places but I’d rather the 7 places so I’m taking Betfair’s 125/1.

Matthew Southgate is one of the best horses for courses types as soon as you get to a windy or links style course and I think he should enjoy this layout. He can be fairly inconsistent right through the bag but as soon as there is a sea breeze his golf tends to improve. If it turns into a massive birdie fest he may get left behind but he does putt better on grainy surfaces and he looks a decent each way price in this sort of field at 125/1.

Soren Kjeldsen can still be a huge threat on short, coastal resort courses like this where his short hitting isn’t too much of a disadvantage. He is a 4-time winner on Tour with two of those coming in Britain and two in Spain so this windy course should very much suit him. His wedge game and short game can still live with the best on the European Tour and he looks to have been dismissed too easily at 150/1 on a course that will play to his strengths.

With three speculative efforts I wanted to finish with a more solid pick in case everything goes wrong with the three above. So I’ve sided with Andy Sullivan who was one of the first names down on my short list. He opened at 25/1 and has been cut to 20/1 but to be honest he should really be a lot closer still to Rozner at 14/1. Sullivan handles wind well and has always had a love of low scoring easy courses as was shown by his win last August at Hanbury Manor when he won on -27. His previous win was at the exposed, coastal layout in Portugal, again on a low scoring -23. I’ll have a bit of a saver on him with 1pt ew @ 20/1 and 7 places.

Zurich Classic

I managed to pick the winning team here last time this was held in 2019 so I thought I’d have a couple of stabs again this week even if it can be a difficult betting event generally. It was Rahm and Palmer that obliged two years ago and they rightly head up the market again here at 9/1. I was tempted as Palmer is playing some of the best golf of his career, no doubt buoyed on by that win alongside his friend. But the nature of the event makes it difficult to think about taking single figure prices even if we do only have 88 runners compared to the norm which is around 132-156.

With Justin Rose and Henrik Stenson both resurgent at the Masters I thought they were interesting here at 33/1. They have played in this twice before with limited success but they were a serious force in the Ryder Cup for a long time and I can’t resist a small play on them just in case both happened to have found something at Augusta and bring that confidence to TPC Louisiana.

My 2nd and final bet is the team of Cameron Percy and Greg Chalmers largely just because they look massively over priced at 350/1 with Skybet. Percy has been some really solid golf this year with his approach game in particular in fine order. Chalmers is even older than Percy at 47 but he has always been one of the best putters around so they should compliment each other nicely and they have done well here before finishing 10th in 2018. Percy was also 11th in 2017 with Grayson Murray while Chalmers has two solo top 10s at the course and they just look like a nice value play in a relaxed tournament where two older heads could enjoy themselves.

Summary of bets

Gran Canaria

Chris Wood – 0.75pts ew @ 125/1

Matthew Southgate – 0.75pts ew @ 125/1

Soren Kjeldsen – 0.5pts ew @ 150/1

Andy Sullivan – 1pt ew @ 20/1 (all 1/5 odds 7 places Betfair)

Zurich Classic

Justin Rose + Henrik Stenson – 1pt ew @ 33/1 (1/5 odds 7 places Betfair)

Cameron Percy + Greg Chalmers – 0.5pts ew @ 350/1 (1/5 odds 7 places Skybet)

Weekly points advised = 9pts

The Masters 2021 – Some bets

Posted on April 6, 2021 by thegreek82

I was hoping to be raring to go for this year’s Masters preview after a week off but even with the excitement of Spieth winning and the first major of the season I struggled to get too much enthusiasm for a preview. I think Burns and Westwood getting beaten seems to have properly knocked the stuffing out of me with regards the blog. Although with my major record so far on the blog nothing short of piss poor, it’s maybe no bad thing as I’ve tried to re-evaluate my major process this week. Easier said than done though. Anyway enough of the negativity, Spieth is a winner again and it’s Masters and Grand National week!!

2021 pts advised = 122

2021 pts returned = 73.98

The Masters

Ah the Masters….yada yada yada. There are a host of brilliant previews kicking around and I’ll never top my first 2016 preview so rather than regurgitate that I’ll just stick the link here for anyone who wants that sort of thing and then focus on the bets.

The Masters – Betting Preview | Golf Greek (wordpress.com)

I will just give a brief summary though of what is required – generally a long driving game (ideally able to shape ball right to left), a high and accurate iron game to hold the fastest greens they play on each year. A sharp short game and confident lag and short putting when things heat up over the weekend. Taking care of the par 5s is always important but not quite as important as not making a mess of the long and difficult par 4s! A par on an easy par 5 isn’t the end of the world but an untimely double bogey on a tricky par 4 can signal the end of someone’s tournament over the weekend. Experience of the course is also crucial as no debutant has won since 1979 while current form seems to be a lot more vital than it used to be as the quality of the professional game is as deep as it has ever been so it’s a hard place to just pitch up and find your form.

I started out my Masters research this year determined to do two things; firstly to attempt to revise my strategy as the majors haven’t been going too well lately on the blog despite plenty of players contending. Secondly, to try not to back the same players that I normally do in the US majors. Sadly it looks like I’ve failed on both counts so I’d forgive anyone stopping reading now as regular readers can probably guess where I’m going. The problem with Jon Rahm is that he keeps on returning the place money and I also couldn’t bare to miss out on him winning the Masters, even at his price this week. He has placed in 5 of his last 9 US majors and more importantly his last 3 Masters. He simply has everything required to win here and the only slight concerns are the new clubs and now a new baby that arrived on Sunday. I don’t have a strong opinion on “nappy factor” but what I don’t like is the immediately cynical viewpoint on the matter. Any edge can be crucial in a sport like golf however I’d be worried it might have come a bit too close to the event. However he seems the sort of person that will have received a bit of a perspective from such a huge life event and if he can free wheel even in the slightest over the weekend off the back of it then that could be enough to get him over the line. Clearly just watching Rahm you can tell what a great fit he is for Augusta and that would be enough for many traditional golf punters but I also love the fact that he sits 3rd in strokes gained off the tee (also 3rd in total driving) and 6th in GIR. It’s a frightening combo for Augusta and to just highlight that further, Bryson and McIlroy who sit ahead of him in SG:OTT are only 65th and 105th in GIR respectively. Rahm also tends to putt a little better on faster greens or if not better then he appears to give up less of an advantage as he is more comfortable lagging putts on quick greens. This was never more evident than his eagle putt to win at Torrey Pines in 2017 and again at Olympia Fields last year when his 66ft birdie defeated DJ at the BMW. He is also a good enough chipper to win here even if that isn’t regularly borne out in the stats and again that is something that improves on quicker surfaces where he can pick a spot and not worry so much about pace. Ultimately though with Rahm I just expect that major win to come very soon and I’ve followed him for so long now I have to continue at least until I get close to the cliff edge.

Although I’ll be honest the slight lingering clubs concern and the close proximity of his baby being born make me want a back up from the head of the market and I cannot leave Jordan Spieth unbacked here, even at what might appear a restrictive price on first look. Like most of the golf betting world I wish i had backed him at some point over the last 6 weeks when it started to become clear that the bulk of his game was somewhere close to its best. That could have brought about a nice value ticket at anywhere up to the maximum of 85.0 that he traded on Betfair. But just because we missed out on bigger prices that doesn’t mean he is a bad price to win here at 14.0 having shown us that he is firmly “back” with his Texas Open win at the weekend. As the most diligent of value hunters will repeatedly tell you the only thing that makes a bet value is if you think it has a better chance than the available odds imply and with Spieth this week that is definitely the case for me now that all is well. Even if we include the last two years where his game has been in the doldrums he has placed in 4 of his 7 Masters events. That works out as 1.75 for a place or a top 10 we’ll say. Backing him with any of the bookmakers offering 10 places you are getting around 3.0 to 3.2 for a top 10 whereas the Betfair price is fluctuating between 2.46 and 2.70. But if you forgive him the last two events then he has been in the top 11 on all 5 starts here! He is also a winner that could easily have 2 green jackets and possibly 4 without being that unrealistic. But purely on that one win his Augusta figures are 1 win from 7 tries which would equate to 6/1. While that’s maybe being a little bit too cute I definitely expect him to finish his career with at least 3 Masters from maybe 24 realistic appearances which would be 7/1. I firmly believe that he wins in this situation more than 1 in 13 times so I still think Betfair’s 14.0 is a value bet. He simply loves it here and if he can drive it straight enough to win at TPC San Antonio then he can definitely drive it straight enough around the forgiving Augusta fairways. We have an in-form Masters winner returning to his favourite course off the back of a win in his home state and the course is set up firm and fast just as he used to enjoy at his peak. Given the likelihood of someone from the head of the market winning this I’m more than happy to have two picks from that range.

Which I guess means I have tweaked something this week as I’m going to have sizeable win and place bets on both Spieth and Rahm, with a view to getting their win stake back if they finish inside the top 10. I’ll be backing them both on Betfair so that’s what I’ll advise in the summary.

Despite firmly expecting this to be won by someone towards the head of the market there are three outsiders who I quite like the look of this week with Skybet’s excellent 11 places on offer. Ryan Palmer has been playing some of his best golf over the last couple of years and I think it could be telling that he hasn’t actually teed it up at Augusta since 2015. His major record in general isn’t great but he has made 3 of his 5 cuts here returning two top 40s and a best of 10th back in 2011. Of all the majors you’d probably say that the Masters suits him best and he is sneakily ranked number 27 in the world having spent most of the last year inside the top 50. There are no signs of the 44 year old letting up and we know that age isn’t generally too much of a barrier at Augusta, especially if you’re still ranking 46th in driving distance on Tour. Some of his other stats this year are also a big standout as he sits 8th in par 4 scoring, 16th in GIR, 5th in approaches from over 200 yards and 23rd in scrambling. The powerful Texan has always made light of the par 5s but this improvement on the par 4s is probably what has seen the big world ranking rise over the last year and it makes him very interesting here even if it would be a massive surprise if he properly contended or even won. The hope is that he can perhaps stay on the fringes of the leaderboard and maybe backdoor a T7th with the pressure off on Sunday. I’ll also add a safer top 30 bet at 2/1.

Victor Perez can boast stronger recent form than the large majority of this field and that makes him look like value in a number of markets. Perez just has one European Tour win to his name so far but it did come at St. Andrews in the Alfred Dunhill while his 2nd best finish was runner-up at Wentworth. For some reason there has always been a strong course correlation with these two courses and Augusta. This is the case through a variety of different types of players but the list of those who have won or played well at all three is a long one. Most recently Zach Johnson won at St Andrews and Augusta while Willett won the BMW PGA at Wentworth in 2019 four years after his Augusta triumph. Cabrera, Langer, Woosnam, Lyle and Olazabal have all won at both Wentworth and Augusta. Westwood and Howell have both won at Wentworth and St Andrews while Seve and Faldo have won at all three courses. Now it could seem to be fairly tenous and nothing more than being a case of all three generally producing top class winners but all require a high number of greens to be hit for a start and strong lag putting is also key at all three. But even the class angle in itself is perhaps a nod to Perez’s ability and that together with his 9th at the Players and 4th at the WGC Match Play tell me that he might be one to watch at this year’s majors. His long and accurate tee to green game looks perfect for championship courses particularly at the moment as he ranked 4th in both total driving and ball striking at the Players. He is also a decent putter these days having gained strokes on the green in 6 of his 7 starts this year and he tends to putt well on fast greens which is a bonus. His one weakness would be his chipping but at the WGC Match Play his short game was in good order. He finished 46th on his debut here in November but I’d expect him to prefer a firmer April Augusta and given he is now the 29th ranked player in the world there is a definite argument to be made for him being a shade of value at 100/1 with 11 places (the 300+ on Exchange also looks great if a little fanciful). I’ll also have a top 20 bet at a juicy 4/1.

I backed Sebastian Munoz in November here and he contended a lot of the way before sliding down the leaderboard on Sunday. I thought a soft Augusta would really suit his long game but having had four rounds at the course now his normally solid short game can help him go well again on a firmer April set-up. He has been firmly on my radar since November so it was nice to see him in and around the leaderboard at the weekend in Texas. Every area of his game was in good order and he looks primed for his second Augusta visit. I’ll also have a top bet at 7/2.

Finally I can’t let Augusta specialist Matt Kuchar go unbacked now he has found some form. His record here is excellent and if he hit the ball 15 yards further he may well own a green jacket by now. For some reason I can picture him in a green jacket more than any other player yet to win one, to the point that I feel like I’ve already seen a photo with him wearing one! But I can’t advise that anyone back him to win this although I’d be surprised if he didn’t put 4 solid rounds together given all 4 of his Augusta top 10s have come in difficult conditions when a single figure under par total won. So I’ll have a confident 3pts on a top 30 finish, something that has happened in 9 of the last 11 Masters.

The last two players off my list were Patrick Cantlay and Joaquin Niemann. Cantlay’s chance is an obvious one but such is his quality on long championship courses the bookmakers haven’t missed him and I would struggle to make an argument for 18/1 being a good price about someone with just two top 10s in 13 professional majors. I really think Niemann should enjoy Augusta but I just don’t like his price either considering his only two rounds here were 76 and 77 in 2018. He has vastly improved since and his controlled long game should be ideal but at 45/1 he is priced up like we know he can play Augusta while sadly that’s not the case yet. I’ll be watching him closely though and maybe looking to jump onboard on the Exchange where he is already tempting at 75.0. If Cantlay happens to drift to 28.0 on the Exchange I think I’ll be having a cover bet at the very least.

I’ve had 4 each way bets in the first round leader market – Brian Harman, Lee Westwood, Jason Kokrak and Scottie Scheffler. They have a good mix of tee times which I think could be wise this year despite the recent trend of later tee times oming out on top on Day 1.

Brian Harman is playing very well at the moment and is 8th in round 1 scoring over the last 3 months. In that time he has had a 68, two 67s and a 66 across just 6 stroke play events while he shot 8 under in the first round of the WGC Match Play. Having missed the last two Masters I think this Georgia native could fly out of the blocks again and looks a fair price at 66/1 in the 9am slot.

Lee Westwood is also in fine form and 5 of his last 7 opening rounds have been in the 60s. He has also shot his lowest round on Day 1 in 6 of his last 11 Masters and with his confidence as high as it’s been in sometime he can also be expected to make a fast start from a sociable 10:30am tee time.

Jason Kokrak has only played here once and missed the cut but he opened with a 71 and his powerful, high ball flight should really suit Augusta. His short game will be less suited but he has improved a huge amount on the greens this year so he looks capable of one low round even if he’s unlikely to put 4 good rounds together. Sitting 6th in round 1 scoring over the last 3 months there is a good chance that low round is his first round.

Finally another powerhouse Scottie Scheffler. His long game numbers have been off the chart lately and he actually leads the total driving stats which is amazing for someone who hits the ball so far. His approach play was poor last week in Texas but prior to that it had been excellent so he was maybe just trying something getting ready for the Masters. Not the biggest price but as long as the firm course doesn’t spook him he should continue where he left off in November after a 19th place finish on debut. Sits 10th in round 1 scoring so again he looks like he should start well.

Summary of bets

Jordan Spieth – 4pts win @ 14 and 2.5pts Top 10 @ 2.60 both on Betfair Exchange

Jon Rahm – 4pts win @ 14 and 3pts Top 10 @ 2.36 both on Betfair Exchange

Ryan Palmer – 0.5pts ew @ 125/1 and 2pts Top 30 @ 2/1

Victor Perez – 0.75pt ew @ 100/1 and 2pts Top 20 @ 4/1

Sebastian Munoz – 0.5pts ew @ 150/1 and 1pt Top 20 @ 7/2 all each way bets are Skybet and place markets are Betfair Sportsbook

Matt Kuchar – 3pts Top 30 @ 11/10

1st round leader (all 1/5 odds 8 places Betfair)

Brian Harman – 0.5pts ew @ 66/1

Lee Westwood – 0.5pts ew @ 33/1

Jason Kokrak – 0.25pts ew @ 70/1

Scottie Scheffler – 0.25pts ew @ 45/1

Weekly points advised = 28pts

WGC Match Play 2021 – Some bets

Posted on March 23, 2021 by thegreek82

Sorry, limited time with a Wednesday start so will get the results all updated ahead of next week. Just a very brief write up of the bets this week.

WGC Match Play

I won’t go into too much detail here as this is an annual event and they have been at Austin Country Club now since 2016 so everyone has a fair idea what is required. It’s a Pete Dye design that would sit towards the easier courses of his. Birdies are available on most holes so it’s a course that sets up well for aggressive match play. But as ever steady fairways and greens can be difficult to beat in this format so both types of players can go well and have done here. Ultimately I always look for proven match play exponents who enjoy Pete Dye layouts. Despite the difference in lengths there is a fairly strong correlation with Dye’s Whistling Straits and that is perhaps due to both courses being relatively forgiving off the tee by Dye’s standards yet altogether more testing on approaches and scrambling.

This year I struggled to decide whether I wanted to stick with each way betting as the group format is basically a crap shoot and you are really picking your players on their ability to go on and win the event if they make it through their group. Therefore I’m only going each way on two golfers with favourable groups and then win only on 4 more golfers to varying stakes as shown in the summary. Hopefully we can get a few into the later rounds and then look at laying stakes or perhaps backing some other players to tie in a profit. If we are lucky enough to be in that position come the weekend then I will tweet out any advice.

First up is my favourite play this week and that’s Paul Casey who I’m actually going to back each way as I really like his draw. Webb should be tough but he doesn’t have a fantastic record around the course while Casey has been solid here winning 7 and halving 2 of his 12 matches. Casey is brilliant at match play and is a two-time runner up in this event when held at Dove Mountain as well as a winner of the now defunct Volvo World Match Play. His recent form on Pete Dye layouts is very strong too as he was 5th at Sawgrass and 8th at the American Express which used Dye’s PGA West Stadium course for 3 rounds this year. This looks to have come at the perfect time for Casey and he rates a solid each way bet even at the trimmed price of 22/1 that gives us 8 places.

Jordan Spieth looks to have a decent group made even better by Fitzpatrick’s surprisingly bad record in this event. Spieth has been in great form this year and does look to be firmly “back”. He has shown a liking for match play throughout his career but I think right now it should suit him even more when a wild drive will only be punished by a lost hole at the absolute worst. He is in what I’m calling the 3rd quarter (top right in the bracket) and he should go well. If the draw works out then he would play his good friend Justin Thomas in the last 16. That could clearly go either way with Thomas a likely favourite so I’ll go win only on Spieth.

Tony Finau is my each way pick in the 2nd quarter (bottom left) mainly due to a great draw as he really should get the better of Kokrak, Frittelli and Will Zalatoris. All of whom are likely to be a bit overawed by this company. Finau’s form has tailed off a little but the change in format should be ideal for a man who took down an in form Tommy Fleetwood at the last Ryder Cup and whose long game is as relentless as anyone in the draw. Nobody in his quarter should really scare him at all and if he brings his best stuff you would expect him to see off Fleetwood or Bryson who is still relatively unproven in professional match play. That’s all we need for the each way pay-out so anything else would be a bonus.

I like Jason Day from the 4th quarter at the prices but I’d rate Jon Rahm as a danger (as usual!) so I’m going to play them both. Day used to be arguably the best match play exponent around when he won this twice out of three runnings when at the peak of his powers from 2014 to 2016. Despite a poor record since the switch to Austin Country Club there is no reason the layout shouldn’t suit and I think we can put that down to poor form. He has shown enough recently to suggest that he can go well this year at a nice price. Rahm will be more a saver as I’d be gutted to miss out if he won this.

I’m also going to take a 2nd player from Spieth’s quarter as I quite like Patrick Cantlay this week and a back-up to Spieth is probably sensible. Cantlay had a superb match play record as an amateur but he’s still fairly inexperienced as a profressional. His results here are ok though having won 3 of his matches, lost 2 and halved the other. His consistent long game and aggressive iron-play should really make him well suited to a match play event on a Pete Dye course and he has a favourable group. I wouldn’t love a last 16 match against Reed for him though so I’ll just play him win only rather doubling the stakes.

Finally I’ll have a bet on Kevin Na to spring a surprise and win group 1 at DJ’s expense. From looking almost unbeatable a month or so ago some wild driving has stopped him in his tracks and I think he could be vulnerable here where a sharp short game is required. A player of his calibre could easily bounce back and win this event but there looks to be plenty value about Na here as he looks to have been priced up as if they are playing this on a 7600 yard layout. Na is very dangerous on short courses, particularly Dye designs and he made the quarter finals in 2019. DJ won this in 2017 but has failed to get out of his group the two years since and has lost 5 of his 6 matches. This makes bet 365’s standout 15/4 about Na winning the group look like an excellent piece of value even if it will probably lose!

Summary

Paul Casey – 1.75pts ew @ 22/1 (1/5 odds 8 places Skybet)

Tony Finau – 1pt ew @ 30/1 (1/5 odds 8 places Betfair Sportsbook)

Jordan Spieth – 1pt win @ 32 on Betfair Exchange

Patrick Cantlay – 1pt win @ 32 on Betfair Exchange

Jon Rahm – 1pt win @ 16.5 on Betfair Exchange

Jason Day – 1pt win @ 50 on Betfair Exchange

Kevin Na to win Group 1 – 1.5pts @ 15/4 (bet 365)

Weekly points advised = 11pts

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