Hero World Challenge – Some bets

Scott Hend was poor last week and the fun trebles never really got going. I wasn’t going to post anything this week but I can’t resist trying to end the season on a winner after a miserable end to the season.

Total 2017 pts advised = 537

Total 2017 pts returned = 381.21

ROI = -29%

Hero World Challenge

I tipped Brooks Koepka here last year at 12/1 and he didn’t play great finishing down in  13th of the 18 man field. But I’m convinced that the course should suit perfectly so I’m going to back in again. He is a far better player now having won the U.S. Open. and yet we are nearly getting the same price. Granted the field is a little stronger but I still think he looks a great price at 10/1. The test looks very similar to Erin Hills where he can bomb the ball into the wide open fairways and allow his aggressive iron play to set-up the birdies. If the putter is behaving, as it does more often than not, then he will enjoy the low-scoring nature which has seen -18 and -25 win the two events to date in the Bahamas.

Elsewhere we have two co-sanctioned events on The European Tour, the Mauritius Open and the Australian PGA. Both have markets dominated by the class acts and as we know they often clean up in these tournaments at the end of the year. The tournament in Mauritius looks there for the taking for Louis Oosthuizen who must have decided to make the small journey prior to his Christmas break back in South Africa. It quite literally has his name all over it as the capital of Mauritius is Port Louis! Despite the weak field though 13/2 looks a little prohibitive in an event that was dominated by putting in 2015. There is a good chance his relentless tee-to-green game will be far too good here but I’d rather throw him an each way double with Koepka, after all it is multiples season now!

Darren Fichardt opened at 66/1 in a couple of places and that looked to me like the stand out value in the Mauritius field. He has been cut in most places now but there is still some 50/1 around that looks worthwhile in this company. Fichardt was 6th last time out which was in a far classier field at the Nedbank. He also won in Joburg earlier this year and looks over priced especially with putting set to be crucial again.

Given how well he performed in his first two starts in the autumn, Connor Syme deserves a mention now with his full European Tour card. But he was down the field at Valderama on his last start so he remains a watching brief into 2018. The course should suit though and he has shown already in his young career he is comfortable travelling to the southern hemisphere having won the Australian Amateur in 2016.

The head of the market in Australia is equally as strong yet it maybe doesn’t look too reliable with Leishman, Scott and Garcia all trading in single figures. As great a 2017 as Leishman has had he makes absolutely no appeal at 15/2 and Adam Scott hasn’t been in any kind of form at all this year. His record in this event is second to none but he hasn’t played in a month and isn’t too appealing at 8/1 in a fairly strong field by Australian standards. Garcia makes the most appeal but he hasn’t played in Australia since 2010 and only 6 times in his career. That tells me there is something he doesn’t love about heading down under and it could just be that he is still having an extended honeymoon. He still looks the most likely of the three however and anyone looking for a solid option for the third leg of their each way treble will struggle to find a better option even if he makes little appeal as a single. The hard and fast layout will certainly suit the Masters champion. In terms of single bets the tournament looks rather trappy to me with a host of young, up and coming Aussies all looking to emulate last week’s winner Cameron Davis. The likes of Marcus Fraser, Andrew Dodt and Tom Lewis all look to be big prices but aren’t consistent or reliable enough to have a bet on I don’t think.

Instead I’m going to place perhaps the most speculative punt of the whole year on Grant Forrest to finish inside the Top 20. Looking through various names and leaderboards I’ve found a bit of a link between Carnoustie and the Royal Pines course. Forrest made the final of the Amateur Championship in 2015, losing to Romain Langasque who finished 10th here last year. He missed out on qualifying for the final two rounds of Q School but only just after firing 4 respectable rounds. Will be looking to make the most of this European Tour start. Worth 1pt for a Top 20 at 10/1 surely.

Summary of bets

Hero World Challenge

Brooks Koepka – 3pts win 10/1

Mauritius Open

Darren Fichardt – 0.5pt ew @ 50/1

Australian PGA

Grant Forrest – 1pt Top 20 @ 10/1


Koepka + Oosthuizen ew double – 0.75pt ew @ 82.5

Koepka + Oosthuizen + Garcia ew treble – 0.25pt ew @ 701.25


Weekly pts advised = 7pts

Total 2017 pts = 540pts



Hong Kong Open – A couple of small bets

How I came away from last week with no returns given my position at halfway I’m not sure, but Justin Rose’s back nine pretty much summed up my golf betting year.

That’s probably it for the full previews but I will still do a couple of posts if I see anything I like in the remaining tournaments around the world over the next few weeks.

The 2017 results make for miserable reading now but one random Asian Tour winner could turn that all around……

2017 pts advised = 533pts

2017 pts returned = 381.21pts

ROI = -28.5%


Hong Kong Open

Having been on Matt Fitzpatrick the last two weeks it would be typical of him to go and win here and I really like his chances but his price isn’t great at all. He was 3rd here in 2015 and has won around Crans which has strong course links. With his recent consistency he looks like the ideal type to fire into some fun cross doubles/trebles this week with and that’s what I’ll be doing. The front four in the market are considerably better than the rest of the field but all must be fighting fatigue having played and travelled so much lately. That means there is surely some each way value to be found with them all trading sub 16/1.

I can’t resist Scott Hend at 90/1. He hasn’t been playing great lately but he has won here before as well as finished runner-up the last two years at Crans. A fiddly narrow track isn’t what we have come to expect Hend to enjoy but more and more he seems to thrive in that environment with his brilliant short game skills. His putter hasn’t been behaving lately but these quicker greens should suit. Looks over priced.

In Australia it is very hard to see past Jordan Spieth and  Jason Day at the head of the betting but these tournaments often throw up the same experienced Aussie names on the leaderboard given the tough test on the hard, fast, Championship courses. As well as including Spieth in trebles, the likes of Rod Pampling and Nick Cullen look solid each way options as they both have event and course form.

In Japan we have the Casio World Open and while there are no big names playing in that this year, there are some nice prices in a tournament usually dominated by the best players on the Japanese Tour. I like both Yuta Ikeda and Shingo Katayama who have won at the course before and are also in decent form this year.

So I’m advising two fun multiples for an interest, firstly a small 0.25pt each way treble on Matt Fitzpatrick in Hong Kong, Rod Pampling in Australia and Shingo Katayama in Japan.

I will also have 1.5pts on a similar place treble; Fitpatrick Top 10, Pampling Top 10 and Yuta Ikeda Top 5.

Summary of Bets

Hong Kong Open

Scott Hend – 1pt ew @ 90/1


Fitpatrick (10/1), Pampling (30/1) and Katayama (25/1) – 0.25pt ew @  8865/1

Fitzpatrick Top 10 ( Evens), Pampling Top 10 (14/5), and Ikeda Top 5 (15/8) – 1.5pts @ 21.85


Weekly pts advised = 4pts





DP World Championship and RSM Classic – A Betting Preview

After a 4th week with no returns and Fitzpatrick finishing just outside the places I must admit I’m looking forward to the winter break on the two main Tours. It hasn’t been a great 2017 but it feels like I was very close with a host of players placing throughout the year but most of them failing to get over the line. I might post some small previews with just the tips for anyone still reading these but I’m largely going to take a break until the Tournament of Champions in Hawaii in January.

It’s easy to think you have all the answers after the success I had in the first year but things have been a lot tougher in the last 18 months. I will look to evaluate my process over the break and may alter things in the New Year, possibly reducing the number of bets and looking more closely at the place markets. Too often have my outsiders played well, missed out on the front 5 but made the Top 20, amounting to a loss for the blog.

We sign off with two great events though, the European Tour season ending DP World Championship from Dubai and the RSM Classic from Sea Island, Georgia.

2017 pts advised = 518pts

2017 pts returned = 381.21pts

ROI = -26.4%


DP World Championship

The main story this week will be the battle between Tommy Fleetwood, Justin Rose and to a lesser extent Setgio Garcia, for the Race To Dubai title. While that will be intriguing we also have an elite European Tour event to try and find the winner of and that looks like no mean feat. The top 60 players through the season line up at the Jumeirah Estate (Earth course) in Dubai and as ever the course that awaits them will be absolutely perfect.

The Greg Norman design is a monster but other than length nobody can have any complaints about the quality course laid out in front of them. Lush green, wide fairways, minimal rough, perfectly manicured bunkers and slick bentgrass greens make for a great event even if it is a very scorable one for those who bring their A game. The winning score often reaches -20 and a quick look through the winners tells us how that is usually acheived. Matt Fitzpatrick stopped the Stenson-McIlroy benefit that was in place since 2012 and while the young Englishman isn’t the longest, he is usually one of the more accurate. Stenson and McIlroy both ate up the Par 4s and 5s with their combination of power, approach accuracy and towering ball flight and on the whole that’s a fairly decent angle in. The greens are heavily undulating and loft will be required to get anywhere near the flags here, many of which are protected by water or sand.

Despite knowing what is required it is a very difficult event to attempt to find any value in, or to have a very strong opinion on who might win. Justin Rose is very tempting as I figured he would be nearer 5/1 in this small 60 runner field. He is 8.2 on the exchange and he is playing superior golf to everyone in the field and is also probably the best golfer in the field (Rahm?!). There is part of me that thinks he might still be the best value in the field as he surely wins this more like 1 in 6 times rather than 1 in 8. The only thing putting me off is personal as I always seem to to struggle to get Rose right. I was convinced he was going to win the US Open this year at Erin Hills but he missed the cut and that has certainly left me with some scar tissue. But given it is the last event of the season I’m going to attempt to go out with a winner here and he is unquestionably the man to beat so I’m having 4pts win on the Exchange.

Martin Kaymer has been a conundrum for many throughout the 2017 season as he often appears over priced given how classy a performer he is. Then once backed at 66/1 he would maybe show enough to get his backers excited only to fall away as he reminded everyone that he is somewhat of a different beast now since throwing away the Abu Dhabi Championship in February 2015. His whole game has really suffered and since then last week is one of the few weeks where has contended on Sunday. That is enough for me to feel he is over priced here at 40/1 however as deep down we know how much ability he has. He doesn’t have the best of records around the course and I’m not even that confident of his chances but everyone has their price and 40/1 for Kaymer coming off a 5th place in SA just looks too big. Kaymer loves the desert and he has 3 wins in Abu Dhabi as well as a solid record in the Dubai Desert Classic and Qatar Masters. Despite never bettering 10th here he closed with two 67s last year and 40/1 is a solid each way price.

Matt Fitzpatrick threw in one bad round last week which cost us an each way payout and possibly better. A Friday 77 left him playing catch up all weekend but he rallied for 8th place and his 7th consecutive Top 15. That is some serious form that has been overshadowed a little by Hatton and Rose both winning back to back during that run. I think I need to give him a chance to recoup last week’s money and given he won here last year, he looks fairly priced at 16/1. Normally defending might be an issue but I expect Rose and Fleetwood to take a considerable amount of the attention away from Fitzpatrick and he put up an excellent defence of the Nordea Masters in the summer when finding only an inspired Renato Paratore too good. He has absolutely no need to fear anyone in this field as this is firmly his level now. Looks sure to go close as long as he can avoid that one bad round.

Ryan Fox did very well for me through the summer and he spent the bulk of the autumn playing on courses that didn’t suit his game. The one exception was the Alfred Dunhill  where I went in again as I thought it would be ideal, he started well but a poor Friday combined with the slow 6hr rounds seemed to throw him and he ended up missing the 54 hole cut. This is right back in the bombers wheelhouse though and given all the courses he has gone well on this year I’m convinced he can outplay his price but maybe not quite threaten the places. So instead of an each way bet I’m going to play him in the top 10 market.

Despite not loving the tournament as a betting proposition I’ve managed to find 4 bets, this might be exactly where I’ve gone wrong in 2017. Finding a bet in each event just for the sake of it!


RSM Classic

The final PGA Tour event of the year takes us back over to the US and to the East coast of Georgia. This week there are two courses in play at Sea Island, the Seaside course and the Plantation course. Everyone will play one course on each before the Plantation takes a back seat over the weekend. Both courses are relatively short at around the 7000 yard mark and the test isn’t too dissimilar to last week as the Seaside course is another fiddly course where accuracy is at a premium. Finding the fairway is required in order to be able to fire approaches at the flags and after that a hot putter will be needed on the undulating bermuda greens. When Kisner racked up the record low score of -22 in 2015 he did so with this exact formula, every time the camera cut to him over the weekend he seemed to be sending a short iron inside 15ft from the middle of the fairway. If we look back at the last 3 editions, the winners have ranked 1st, 2nd 1st for putting.

2015 U.S. Open Sectional Qualifying

I backed Jamie Lovemark here last year at 80/1 and he fell one spot shy in the agonising 6th place. Unfortunately he is a lot shorter this week but I really like his chances here of getting his maiden win. The last three RSM winners were all winning for the first time on the PGA Tour. Lovemark missed the cut in Mexico last week but prior to that he was last seen finishing 5th in the CJ Cup where he ranked 5th for driving accuracy and 7th for GIR. Returning to Sea Island where he has played well I’m hoping he can find that level of long game to go with his always assured putting stroke (24th in Strokes Gained: Putting). His best two finishes last season were a 3rd at Greenbrier and 4th at the Sony Open, two courses which often correlate well with Sea Island. They were both partly designed by Seth Raynor who used classic British links characteristics on lots of his holes. Sea Island was designed by the great Harry Colt who is responsible for some of the best links courses in the world. There might just be something about these classic tracks that fit the eye for Lovemark and although the 40/1 isn’t a price to get excited about I do like his chances this week.

I’ve backed Si-Woo Kim a few times lately on price alone and I think he looks a must bet again here, especially as he arrives in good form this week. The bookmakers continue to forget that he has won The Players Championship and that piece of form places him way ahead of the majority of this field. But he has also won around the tree-lined Sedgefield and is still just 22 years old. Both those wins were on bermuda greens and this streaky putter clearly performs better on that surface. He missed the cut last year but was 18th on his debut the year before. Kim looks to me like the sort of player that has his price and almost needs to be followed in whenever he isn’t given the respect he deserves. He opened at various prices towards 80/1 which was really far too big, he is now 50/1 and to be honest that still feels very big coming in off a 3rd place in Mexico.

Blayne Barber was high on my list even before I looked at his course form which included a runner-up finish last year. That meant he had to be backed just as long as his price was ok and we are getting three figures across the board on the young Floridian. Barber hails from just over the border in Tallahassee and he has already won the South Georgian Classic on the Web.com Tour. He is clearly comfortable in these conditions and I think he looks a very solid bet to go contend here again. His best finish other than his 2nd here last year is a 3rd at the Honda Classic. That is another short, exposed course designed by Tom Fazio (Fazio redesigned the Seaside course) and they seem to be the sort of courses where it could pay to follow Barber in his early career. He is another strong putter who ranked 23rd in strokes gained: putting last year but it was actually his long game that clicked here last year as he hit 80% of the fairways and 87% of the greens. He missed his first cut of the season but finished 45th last week in Mexico which will set him up nicely for his return to Sea Island.

Summary of Bets

RSM Classic

Jamie Lovemark – 1pt ew @ 40/1

Si-Woo Kim – 1pt ew @ 50/1

Blayne Barber – 0.5pt ew @ 110/1

DP World Championship

Justin Rose – 4pts win @ 8.2

Matt Fitzpatrick – 1.5pt ew @ 16/1

Martin Kaymer – 1pt ew @ 40/1

Ryan Fox – 1pt Top 10 @ 16/1


Weekly pts advised = 15pts

2017 pts advised = 533pts



OHL Classic and Nedbank Golf Challenge – Betting Preview

There were exciting finishes on both Tours last week but none of our players were quite on the premises down the stretch on Sunday. Matthew Southgate was on the leaderboard most of the weekend but a poor front nine on Sunday left him with too much to do and he could only finish 11th. On the PGA Tour it was annoying to miss out on Patrick Cantlay as his win has been coming and he looked to have a good chance however 20/1 about a maiden however talented isn’t a price for everyone. The outsiders I plumped for instead started very well as both Stegmaier and Fathauer sat in the top 20 after the first round but both struggled on Friday on what was a very strange 2nd round. They couldn’t get closer again over the weekend and it was annoying to see Hadley place as I left him out on price alone.

Total 2017 pts advised = 506pts

Total 2017 pts returned = 381.21pts

ROI = -24.67%

OHL Classic

The penultimate event of the 2017 Fall Series takes place south of the border, down Mexico way. The course is El Camaleon at Mayakoba and has been a staple on the Tour since 2007. It is quite a unique event for a couple of reasons, firstly it was the only regular PGA Tour event outside the U.S. for a number of years and secondly it was one of the few courses they play annually that is less than 7000 yards long.

To allow for the lack of length the course is heavily tree-lined with very narrow fairways and some smaller, fairly tricky sea paspalum greens. Despite the fiddly nature of the course, scoring is usually very low and while it isn’t over powered, the accurate players in the field can make plenty of birdies, especially if they enjoy putting on the often quirky sea paspalum greens. Sea paspalum is said to grab the ball a lot more than other grasses so those with an aggressive short iron game are able to pepper the flag and make a score without having to hole a serious amount of distance. Experience of the grass is certainly advantageous and the strain of grass caused quite a stir back at the 2012 US PGA when very few players had seen sea paspalum on the PGA Tour. It is becoming increasingly more common now however and is used at lots of Web.com Tour venues.

While young rookies tend to do very well in these early season events, more experienced pros tend to enjoy the test at Mayakoba and we can see that if we look at the last three winners, Pat Perez, Graeme McDowell and Charlie Hoffman. I wouldn’t want to rule any of the younger players out but I will be focussing on the experienced players who will have the patience for a more considered test of golf.

I’d make accuracy the most important attribute this week, both off the tee and indeed with their irons. Having played well previously in the heat and humidity will be beneficial and proximity to the hole numbers are worth a look, especially with the wedges from 100 to 150 yards.

Chesson Hadley is one of the form players in the world right now and while I left him out at 28/1 last week I’m going to include him here as he has shown his liking for sea paspalum in the past and played well in the humid conditions. Hadley didn’t actually do a lot wrong last week as he bogeyed the 18th to miss out on the play-off but that was the only mistake he really made down the stretch and he wasn’t alone in bogeying the impossibly hard final hole.

His whole game has been in great shape for the last two months and he doesn’t really have too much of a weakness to his game. He was won before away from mainland U.S as his sole PGA Tour win came in Puerto Rico in similar climate and on similar paspalum greens. In all honesty I thought we would be looking at joint 2nd favourite here around 18/1 or 20/1 so I’ll gladly take the 25/1 on offer about the player who looks more likely than anyone in the field to play well. *Since initially writing this he has been cut to 22/1, it’s not brilliant but still the right side of 20s for me.

This layout should suit Kevin Chappell quite well as he enjoys a test of long game accuracy as much as anyone on Tour. I normally associate him with tougher courses as one of his main strengths is protecting his par on testing ball-striking layouts and his win came at TPC San Antonio on a score of -12. While scoring here is always a lot lower than that, it is the San Antonio link that I like here. It is another Greg Norman course with a premium on accuracy and the green complexes are similar. Chappell can eat up the Par 5s around here with his consistent tee-to-green game and that will allow some slack with the putter which doesn’t always behave.

His form is actually sneaky good coming in too despite not really appearing on any leaderboards. He hasn’t finished outside the Top 35 since The Open and his figures read a very positive 20-28-12-35-6-33-13-8. That 20th was last week at The Shriners and was an excellent result considering it was his first appearance since his successful Presidents Cup debut over a month ago. This is his debut at the course but he finished 9th and 11th in the Mexico Open on the Web.com Tour and the course should suit. I think we are getting a decent price given he is a winner earlier this year, arriving in good form and has pieces of form over the last couple of years as strong as anyone in the field bar Fowler or Reed.

Andrew Putnam looks a great outsider here largely due to his results in the South American/Caribbean swing on the Web.com earlier this year. He went on a run of 8th-11th-5th-1st in the Bahamas, Colombia and Panama and all of those were played in similarly hot and humid conditions. The most interesting point however is that they all feature sea paspalum greens and the Panama GC where he won is also tree-lined and considered a difficult test tee to green. He isn’t the most accurate of drivers but given he has won on tight courses before we can assume he is capable of a strategic game off the tee.

He has played Mayakoba just once and he made the cut but finished down in 72nd last year. He struggled with his long game but yet he ranked 1st for putting which is a big positive. He hasn’t done much lately but his form in similar climates and on sea paspalum greens makes the 250/1 look huge. I’ll also have an interest in the Top 20 market.

Kyle Thompson has missed all three cuts so far in the 2017 season and after last week’s wash out I probably shouldn’t have such a speculative bet but he is another with very good form from the Web.com tournaments played outside the U.S. He won the Great Exuma Classic in January at the Sandals Emerald Bay Golf Course in the Bahamas which is another Greg Norman design with sea paspalum greens. It isn’t quite as tight a driving course but the green complexes and bunkering look very similar as is the climate. He is a massive price and quite out of form but I’m still having a very small interest each way and Top 20.


This is played at the Gary Player Country Club at Sun City in South Africa and it plays about as long as the multiple major winner’s self-indulgent stories. That figure is around 7800 yards and while it is at altitude it is still one of the longer courses on Tour. Unlike many of those though, the players aren’t able to completely let rip with the driver as the fairways are very narrow, tree-lined and feature quite sticky kikuyu rough. Additionally the greens are quite small and are intricately shaped to allow several difficult pin positions. This has seen many of the European Tour’s best ball-strikers win the title over the years and the long-game has to be fully on point to compete in this 72 hole slog in the blistering heat. We have seen many rounds crumble away into the 80s and without a cut this week there will be a huge disparity between the winner and the player in last place. The course will reward good shots but heavily punish those not on their game, especially as the greens firm up over the weekend.


Matt Fitzpatrick has been top of my list for this ever since he won the European Masters at Crans. To say that Crans and the Gary Player CC are exactly the same test would be inaccurate given the huge difference in length, however there are definitely some crossovers and for me the two have some sort of link. Five of the last seven Nedbanks have been won by players who have also won around Crans and I suppose the two common attributes are finding fairways and being in form. Neither course is one where a player can compete without finding the short stuff or arriving without their game in a good place.

Fitzpatrick is a supremely accurate driver of the ball and although he is quite short, his long iron game is also very accurate meaning he will still be able to hit these smallish greens. His two efforts to date in the Nedbank haven’t been spectacular but he has made the top 20 on both occasions. He hasn’t quite threatened to win in recent weeks but his form has still been good with results of 11-9-15-15-11 since his win in Switzerland. If he starts well then I expect him to contend this week.

Tommy Fleetwood should enjoy this test but I’m a little unsure how he might perform with the pressure that Justin Rose heaped on him last week. He will be very much the focus at the course during the build up and having played so much golf lately, that might just take its toll after a long flight from Turkey. Instead I’m looking at two outsiders for an added interest.

Paul Waring drives the ball very long and very straight and he bounced back to form last week as he finished 14th in Turkey. His whole game was very strong as he ranked 11th in the all-round, 5th in total driving and 7th in ball-striking. His best finish to date on Tour was a runner-up finish in the Joburg Open in February so I’m hoping he will be comfortable in these conditions. Had this been a star-studded field he might have struggled but given the number of big names now missing he shouldn’t be overawed.

I wanted to include Romain Wattel again but it was proving hard to forgive him his opening round last week where I really fancied him to go well. But at 150/1 I think he is worth another go as he ranked 7th for total driving, 8th for GIR and closed with rounds of 68-69-67. It was just a poor start and a cold putter that prevented him contending and I’m hoping a trip to SA and the grainy putting greens might sort the latter out. He already has three placed efforts in the country so should go well now he is returning as a European Tour winner.

Summary of bets

OHL Classic

Chesson Hadley – 1pt ew @ 22/1

Kevin Chappell – 1pt ew @ 30/1

Andrew Putnam – 0.5pt ew @ 250/1 and 1pt Top 20 @ 8/1

Kyle Thompson – 0.25pt ew @ 500/1 and 0.5pt Top 20 @ 20/1

Nedbank Challenge

Matt Fitzpatrick – 1.5pts ew @ 18/1

Paul Waring – 0.5pt ew @ 175/1

Romain Wattel – 0.5pt ew @ 150/1


Weekly pts advised = 12pts

2017 pts advised = 518pts