Festive Greetings and a quick 2018 recap

I’d like to take this chance to thank everyone who has read my blog throughout 2018 and hopefully you managed to enjoy a few winners along the way. I know from when I started out that perhaps the best way to finding winners in golf tournaments is to read as many different previews as you can and absorb as much information as you can with regards to how others analyse each event and indeed each golfer. So even if you aren’t following the bets I’ve broken some of the results down so that people can see which areas I ight be doing better in.

Whether I’d have done this if I didn’t make it back into profit or not I don’t know, but I think it’s important to keep an accurate account of your results at all times. I know there are plenty in sports “tipping” that don’t but it’s only fair to those that you expect to take your advice. The 2018 results look like this;

2018 pts advised = 508.50

2018 pts returns = 519.74

Profit = 11.24 pts

ROI = 2.21%


 

Total bets = 297

Outright wins = 6

(Odds of 66/1, 50/1, 70/1, 150/1, 12/1, 25/1)

Total each way place wins = 21

Total place only wins = 6 (from 37 bets placed – 55pts advised, 56.42 returned)

Average points per bet = 1.71

Average odds of winning outrights = 63.17

Average stakes on winning outrights = 0.71pt ew

 

There probably isn’t as much to take from that as I’d hoped but the one thing I have noticed is that I probably need to be a little more confident when I fancy someone at bigger odds. Only having 0.71pts each way on the winners has probably diluted the returns this year. Maybe I have to review my staking plans in 2019 with a view to maximising profits.

2019 looks to be a very exciting year given the large number of elite level golfers that threw their cap in the ring in 2018. The major venues look as good as any year I remember with the US Open heading to the iconic Pebble Beach, The Open leaving mainland UK for the first time at the brilliant Royal Portrush and the US PGA making its first May appearance at the brutal Bethpage Black course.

With all that to look forward to I’m going to whet the appetite a little with my first advised bet of 2019 and have 16 x 0.0625pt ew cross folds across the 4 majors with 2 picks in each. These are as much a piece of fun as anything and will only total 2pts yet they can get very exciting if you make it past Augusta with the winner!

Masters – Jon Rahm (18/1) and Jordan Spieth (11/1)

US PGA – Brooks Koepka (14/1) and Patrick Reed (40/1)

US Open – Dustin Johnson (11/1) and Jason Day (20/1)

The Open – Rickie Fowler (18/1) and Eddie Pepperell (100/1)

 

Ranging from 41,039/1 to 1,652,258/1. All Skybet and all 1/4 odds 5 places. 16 x 0.0625pts ew = 2pts total.

 

Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year!

globe tree

 

 

 

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Alfred Dunhill Championship and Indonesian Masters – A few bets

A poor week last week with almost everyone proving a disappointment. Van Zyl again played well in spells but Champ and Kisner had an absolute shocker in the Shootout. Stakes were returned on Van Rooyen as he withdrew before the first tee on Thursday morning.

I was going to leave it this week as I was low on time but then I noticed that the blog was back in the negative by 5pts for 2018. So while I haven’t managed a full preview for either event, I have a couple of bets in a (desperate!?) attempt to get back in to the black for the year.

2018 pts advised =- 500.50

2018 pts returned = 495.74

ROI = -0.95%


Alfred Dunhill Championship

Louis and Charl head the betting here after winning and finishing 3rd last week respectively. Seems perfectly fair and I’d expect one of them to win, with preference probably for Schwartzel given his unrivalled course form (3 wins and several other top 10s). I think Louis will probably have peaked last week and having finally won the South African Open I’m sure he will be on auto-pilot this week. The reverse forecast is more than likely to give you a run through the weekend though and he played some excellent golf last week and they are a class above here.

David Drysdale looks a little over priced here given his course form. His results at Leopard Creek read 11-8-6-11-25-mc-8-mc-29-28-25. He withdrew last week after an opening 73 on the easy layout and then a double bogey on the 3rd hole of his 2nd round. I can’t find any information on his injury so I’m going to assume he was just saving himself for Leopard Creek. I’ll have a very small play each way on the outright as we know he has struggled to win his whole career. I’m also going to have a bet on a Top 20 finish, something that he has managed on his last 4 visits. I’m staking this with a view to finishing the year in profit should he oblige.


Indonesian Masters

Justin Rose and Henrik Stenson should really have this covered between them given the drop in class to the next best player. I did consider backing them both combined at 2.1 but there are probably just about enough young, unexposed talents in the field to put me off. I’d expect it to give you a run for your money all week at the absolute worst but I’m not going to put it up given it’s such a short price. I’m surprised it’s not odds on to be honest but the unknown potential in the field maybe make it just about right.

Instead I’m going to have a rock-solid each way double on Rose and Schwartzel. Rose has won on his only appearance at the course and Schwartzel has placed 9 times from 14 at Leopard Creek. If they both place then we still double our money taking 1/4 odds and 5 places with the best prices, 7/4 and 15/2 respectively. The win portion is 179/8 or 23.38 decimal.

Happy holidays to all readers and I’ll be back for the Tournament of Champions in the New Year. Hopefully we can find an early Christmas present in the meantime…..come on David!


Summary of bets

Alfred Dunhill Championship

David Drysdale – 0.5pts ew @ 100/1 (1/5 odds 7 places)

David Drysdale – 3pts Top 20 @ 7/2

Other bets

Justin Rose and Charl Schwartzel – 2pts ew double @ 4.13 place and 23.38 win

(bet365)

 

Weekly pts advised = 8pts

 

@theGreek82

QBE Shootout and South Africa Open – Betting Preview

Jaco Van Zyl made his odds of 80/1 look very silly on Thursday morning and when he had the lead I thought we would be in for a contending performance but either his wrist flared up or his rustiness kicked in as his Friday and Saturday rounds took him completely out of the reckoning. Sordet got agonisingly close to a place as he finished 11th but I was still happy with the bet as I think he was over priced given his form and knowledge of the course.

Woodland did the opposite to Van Zyl in the Bahamas and improved through Friday and Saturday after a poor start. But after getting himself into the places prior to the final round he played very poorly on Sunday to fall down the leaderboard. So there were no returns for the week and in order to attempt to stay in profit I might add a couple of more solid place bets this week. Just the two events this week with another novelty team event in the US, the QBE Shootout while a mammoth field (200+) takes to the Sunshine Tour in the South African Open.

2018 pts advised = 491.50

2018 pts returned = 495.74

ROI = 0.86%


QBE Shootout

This was formerly known as the Franklin Templeton Shootout and has been an end of a season, unofficial event for quite some time with the first event taking place as far back as 1989. The host course is Tiburon GC in Naples, Florida and the field is only made up of twelve 2-man teams. Several of the players are repeat offenders lining up every year for an enjoyable, laid back birdie fest. Steve Stricker, Matt Kuchar, Harris English and Sean O’Hair have all had plenty of success in the event. It’s not an event that I would normally get too involved in but without any bigger events this week I’ve had a look and have found an angle that has given me two bets.

The course was designed by Greg Norman so I had a look at results at his two other regular stops on the schedule; TPC San Antonio (Valero Texas Open) and El Cameleon GC (Mayakoba/OHL Classic). The results were interesting and there seems to be quite a strong correlation with several of the same names popping up. Kuchar and English have won here twice and finished second twice and both men are Mayakoba winners. Charley Hoffman and Sean O’Hair are two with good records here and TPC San Antonio and there are several others.

Kevin Kisner

Cameron Champ finished 10th at the Mayakoba after contending again two weeks after his win. He is yet to play TPC San Antonio but as both courses seem to reward long and straight driving, I’m sure he will take to it in April. The recipe for success is very much solid ball-striking with a red-hot putter. Last year Stricker and O’ Hair combined for a 57 in the first round scramble format and if you don’t go low you may as well go home! Champ’s putting has been immense so far in the 2019 season so he will enjoy the low-scoring nature while he was an amateur as recently as 2017, which means he will have plenty of recent experience playing team golf. Kevin Kisner has a very solid record playing on the South-east coast and he has experience of the course too having teed it up the last two years. He is also a deadly putter, especially on bermuda greens. Playing with the powerful Champ, Kisner will be able to put his accurate short to mid-irons to better use around here than he might playing off his own drives. Two of the three rounds will involve moving to the best tee-shot and I think that makes this combination potentially very useful indeed. Given Champ’s recent form they aren’t much of a price but we need to remember this is only a 12-runner event. I’ll play them win only I think in the hope they contend and then I can look at laying stakes back rather than betting each way.

Andrew Landry won around TPC San Antonio for the blog in April at a big price so doesn’t really owe me anything. Here he is playing with one of the best putters the PGA Tour has seen this century in Luke Donald. I’m going to overlook current form of the former World No. 1 and instead have a little nibble on one of the rank outsiders. Their combined lack of length might just do for them here in a format that should in theory reward aggressive power. However Steve Stricker won here last year while Kuchar is a two-time winner and Snedeker has also had his hands on the trophy. None of those three are the longest hitters and usually rely on short iron accuracy and putting, which this team should be all about. I’m going to have a small each way bet for an added interest.


South African Open

The Sunshine Tour have decided to merge the Joburg Open and the South Africa Open into one. As someone who enjoys all the events in SA I’m not really sure why they have done this. But the important thing for punters is the courses at Randpark GC have been used before in 1995, 2000 and last year in the Joburg Open. There is also some Sunshine Tour Pro-Am event form from 2009 and 2010. There are two courses, the Bushwillow and the Firethorn. Bushwillow is the shortest of the two and doesn’t appear too challenging while Firethorn is a bit tougher standing over 7500 yards. Both courses are fairly typical of the sorts we see in South Africa with tree-lined yet wide fairways and difficult green complexes and well placed bunkering. Despite last year’s low winning score of -23, it can be a challenging course and I’d expect them to have things set up a little tougher to keep the scoring below -20. The field consists of some 240 players across the two courses with loads of young South Africans dreaming of making their mark in their national Open.

Erik Van Rooyen is my main pick here, yet again, and having finished runner-up at the course last year it is rather an obvious one. He has been tipped several times this year on what has been a brilliantly consistent rookie season. He has racked up 5 top 10s, a major debut top 20 and has done almost everything but win. But we are in profit on EVR after two places despite putting him up 6 times (11pts advised with 25pts returned). His form has tailed off a little but his last 4 starts were very strong fields so a return home should sort that out. One of his two professional wins came in another Joburg suburb which tells us he is comfortable in the city. The low scoring nature might have been an issue for an average putter but it didn’t hold him back last year as he ranked 1st in GIR hitting a ridiculous 90%. When you are doing that there isn’t so much pressure on the putting and I don’t think I can leave him out here. Hopefully he can cap an impressive first year on Tour with that elusive win!

Jaco Van Zyl makes the team again despite those annoying middle rounds in Mauritius. He was coming off a decent lay-off and he still finished 23rd with an opening 65 and a closing 66. Only the winner fired two lower rounds in the week. It wasn’t enough to shift his odds though and we can get 80/1 again with a run under his belt. I’ve got to go in again despite everyone knowing how hard he is to get over the line. As we said last week though he is a 14-time winner in SA with 3 of those in the Joburg area. He also has some sneaky form at the course having finished 2nd and 6th in the two Pro-am events in 2009 and 2010. If it was just rust last week then 80/1 is a great price for a player of his talent in a fairly basic field even if it is a 240 man one.

I’m also going to have to give Clement Sordet another run out after playing so well last week. As well as finishing 11th he put up the 2nd best combined GIR and scrambling numbers in the field, ranking 3rd in GIR and 11th in scrambling. Missed the cut last year but is improving all the time and looks worth another go while he remains at a solid each way price of 80/1.

Herman Loubser is still just 19 and has very little experience of European Tour events. What he does have however is an abundance of experience of both courses this week. He won his first amateur title on the Bushwillow course in 2015 while he caddied for a friend who won a match play event at the Firethorn in 2016. He said himself that this gave him valuable knowledge of both courses and helped him feel comfortable there. We’re not done there yet though as he would go on to win the 2017 Sunshine Tour Q-School at Randpark to gain his full card. Unfortunately he would miss the cut here last year at the Joburg Open but that was his first ever European Tour start so he would have been nervous enough and yet he still shot an opening 68. I’m expecting a better performance this time around as he hasn’t missed a cut in his last 6 Sunshine Tour starts, returning 5 Top 25s. Whether he will prove good enough to nab a Top 20 I don’t know but I think the ew and top 20 odds could give us a little value given how well he knows the course. Very speculative but worth a go at the prices.


Summary of bets

QBE Shootout

Kisner + Champ = 3pts win @ 11/2

Landry + Donald – 0.75pt ew @ 28/1 (1/5 odds 4 places)
South Africa Open

Erik Van Rooyen – 1.25pts ew @ 28/1 (1/5 odds 7 places)

Jaco Van Zyl – 0.75pt ew @ 80/1 (1/5 odds 7 places Skybet)

Clement Sordet – 0.75pt ew @ 80/1 (1/5 odds 7 places Skybet)

Herman Loubser – 0.25pt ew @ 500/1 (1/5 odds 7 places) and 1pt Top 20 @ 20/1

Weekly pts advised = 11.5pts

@ttheGreek82