Hero World Challenge, Mauritius Open and Australian PGA – Betting Preview

Aaron Rai brilliantly led from start to finish in Hong Kong to give us a much-needed 66/1 winner. I couldn’t quite believe how well he played particularly over the weekend with such a quality chasing pack. It was an impressive way to get his first win in such a famous event with Fitzpatrick, Fleetwood, Garcia and Cabrera-Bello all in behind and each one with no excuses.

Denmark nabbed a share of 4th place in the World Cup to give us a very small return and the blog is back in profit for 2018! But only just. It gives us some money to play with this week though as again we have multiple tournaments from around the world. Looking at how many of the fancied runners placed last week and how close the treble came to landing the each way money, I’ll be considering similar bets again this week.

2018 pts advised= 483.50

2018 pts returned = 495.73

ROI = 2.53%


Hero World Challenge

With the whole field of 18 men ranging in price from just 8/1 to 40/1 this has the feeling of being an absolute minefield where any of the players could legitimately win. Even the very head of the market is extremely tight with 8 golfers sitting between 8/1 and 12/1. The sensible outcome of a quick look at the event would be “no bet” but that’s not a whole lot of fun and probably not what anyone wants to hear! So we may as well have a deeper look and see if we can find anything of interest.

The Albany Golf Course in the Bahamas hosts for the 4th year in a row now so we have 3 years of event form to pour over. Unfortunately another negative is that there are no stats for any of those given it isn’t an official PGA Tour event. So all we can really go on is the type of player that has won here and what makes the course suitable, together with having a look to see if there is a trend with motivation for all the event winners. An end of season December jolly to the Bahamas doesn’t stand out as one of the most important events to be winning so plenty of the field will be enjoying it for exactly what it is. Several of the field however will be looking to lay down a marker for 2019 having had a poor year on Tour by their standards.

If we look at the 3 winners at Albany, Hideki Matsuyama, Rickie Fowler and Bubba Watson, there appears to be some sort of link with TPC Scottsdale and the Phoenix Open. Matsuyama has won the Phoenix Open twice, Fowler lost in a play-off to Matsuyama and also finished runner-up in 2010 while Bubba finished runner-up in 2014 and 2015. The courses perhaps aren’t all that similar but on both courses the winner tends to have performed very well on the Par 5s. That makes sense at Albany with five of the longer holes but Scottsdale only has 3. Further similarities might be that both sets of greens have a tifeagle bermuda base and run rather fast for regular PGA Tour surfaces so they reward well struck approach shots, something that Fowler, Matsuyama and Bubba excel at when on their game. They are also both courses where driving distance is a big advantage.

This has thrown up my only bet in the event and that is this year’s Phoenix Open winner Gary Woodland. He is a big hitter having ranked 7th in driving distance last year and few play the Par 5s better on a regular basis. This year so far he ranks 14th in par 5 scoring average while his rankings the last 3 years read 9-24-7. Woodland also arrives in decent form with a run of 5-2-10 prior to a 41st at the Mayakoba last time out. He closed that with a 65 on Sunday however and he will be relishing his first start here in the Bahamas after a 2 week break. Woodland has already shown in his career that he is comfortable playing outside the US with a strong record in Malaysia’s CIMB Classic as well as a World Cup win in China alongside Matt Kuchar.  Both those events take place in the last quarter of the year too so he clearly still has motivation at this time of year. It won’t be easy to win in this field but at least we are getting a nice price about someone who should enjoy the test and can easily contend at this elite level.

While Fowler is a very short price and surely can’t be considered for singles, his record at the course makes him a very solid pick for accumulator bets this week.


Mauritius Open

This is the 4th edition of the Mauritius Open since it had European Tour status but with it moving every 2nd year it is just the 2nd at the Four Seasons Golf Club at Anahita. It is a long Ernie Els designed course that can play to some 7500 yards if required and the fairways are very wide. The challenge tends to be the greens as they are rather undulating with lots of run-offs, hillocks, bunkers and even stone dykes protecting them! Els always enjoyed the imagination required around links courses so it is to be expected that he would replicate that test around his greens. 2016 winner Wang and runner-up Rahman both got up and down brilliantly all week to rank 5th and 3rd in scrambling. The course is also right by the sea so if the wind blows as it did in 2016 there will be plenty greens being missed. Therefore solid approach play and a sharp short game look to be the route to success at the Four Season GC.

Last year’s winner Dylan Frittelli (Heritage GC) returns to defend as a 10/1 favourite and that tells you quite a lot about the calibre of the field. Frittelli is a very exciting prospect but he isn’t someone who deserves to be backed to win a golf tournament at those odds. To be honest the same could be said about most of those at the top of the market with Mattias Schwab the 3rd favourite at around 22/1. Not only has he not won on Tour but he hasn’t even really properly contended in an event despite his lofty reputation and a consistent season. Bernd Wiesberger returns after some 6 months out through injury so he can probably be left out on grounds of being a little rusty. George Coetzee would normally be included in the blog on a week like this especially at 25/1 but he hasn’t had the best of years and only finished 27th here in 2016 when in better form. Again this had me looking further down the market to find some each way interest where a place will pay more than a Frittelli win. That makes a lot of sense in an event like this and I have found three nice looking bets.

Jaco Van Zyl was one of the first names to jump out at me this week. Partly because he has hardly played this year due to a wrist injury but also due to his good record at both of the other courses which Wang has won at; the Trophee Hassan and the Qatar Masters. Van Zyl was 2nd in Qatar just this year while he also has a runner-up and a 3rd at the Trophee Hassan. At his best the South African journeyman is a supremely consistent ball-striker with an effortlessly smooth swing. But he seems to always get in the way of himself when it comes to winning, be it mentally or poor putting when it matters. However 2018 has very much been the year of both the overdue win and the comeback win. Van Zyl is a 14 time winner on the Sunshine Tour so he is definitely more comfortable in these parts and at exactly the same age as Charles Howell III and Richard McEvoy, he could well take inspiration from their success. He made his first start since wrist surgery in August but to limited success. However he stopped a run of missed cuts last time out when finished 10th on the Sunshine Tour. He has had another month off to rest his wrist further since then so I’m hoping he is ready to go this week. He was 12th here in 2016 and if he is anywhere close to full fitness then he looks a fantastic bet at 80/1.

Clement Sordet was another of the first names on the short list purely because he is listed on the European Tour website as being based at the other Mauritius host course the Heritage Club. So I figured he must spend a fair bit of time down on the island and has probably played this course quite a few times. But my confidence was boosted when I realised he finished 8th at Q-School to gain a full European Tour card last month. I figured he must be in decent form but then Ben Coley pointed out in his preview that Sordet and Langasque actually won a PR doubles event at this course over the weekend. So the Frenchman is clearly very comfortable down here and probably even has his own place. He isn’t a player I know a whole lot about just yet but he is a 4-time winner on the Challenge Tour and he came 16th at Walton Heath which was a very strong field on a tough layout.  Looking at his stats he is pretty capable in most departments but doesn’t always manage to put the whole game together on any given week. In a more relaxed environment without a Tour card to worry about this could be a big week for him.

Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano has been in the golfing wilderness for the last 4 or 5 years, losing his game at almost exactly the same time he left for the PGA Tour. It is what most golfers on the European Tour will dream of ultimately and it was a shame how things worked out for the likeable Spaniard. He had just begun to assert himself as a European Tour heavyweight when he upped sticks so having lost his playing rights in the US he will be keen to make a mark back on the European Tour. He has had mixed results so far in the 7 events since he returned but the pick of the bunch was his 5th at Valderrama last month. It is always a difficult course with a winning score in line with Wang’s -6 score here in 2016. Gonzo has always been a brilliant ball-striker and wind player but was sometimes let down by his short game. So it is particularly interesting that he leads the Tour in scrambling over the last 3 months. I’m expecting a decent week for a player who has never finished outside the top 26 on his four trips to Africa.


Australian PGA

We noticed last week just how much the cream rises to the top of the leaderboard in events at this time of the year and nobody needs me to tell them that Cameron Smith, Marc Leishman and Royal Pine course horse Harold Varner III are three solid favourites in Australia this week. I will probably look at including all 3 in some fun accumulators this week but they don’t really appeal as singles given it is quite hard to pick between them. Smith and Leishman both played brilliantly last week in Melbourne while Harold Varner III arrives in very solid form and boasts course figures of 2-1-6.

So it’s just the one each way bet and that is last year’s play-off loser Jordan Zunic. He is a young Aussie still based on the PGA of Australasia Tour but he showed what he is capable of in this company last year when he put his home Tour knowledge to good use. He led the field that week in putting so he obviously enjoys the greens here. Zunic also won along the road in Brisbane just three weeks ago so he looks a little bit over priced here at 66/1.

I wanted to have another go at an each way treble here and I’m liking Harold Varner III and Rickie Fowler given they both have rock solid course form and are both playing well. But there is no such pick at the top of the market in Mauritius. So instead I’m going to take a leap of faith that Bernd Wiesberger might just be fit enough to contend here. At his best he would probably be a 9/1 favourite in this field so I’m going take that potential value and cross my fingers.


Summary of bets

Hero World Challenge

Gary Woodland – 1pt ew @ 33/1 (1/5 odds 4 places)

Mauritius Open

Jaco Van Zyl – 0.75pt ew @ 80/1 (1/5 odds 6 places general)

Clement Sordet – 0.75pt ew @ 80/1 (1/5 odds 6 places Sky bet)

Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano – 0.75pt ew @ 66/1 (1/5 odds 6 places)

Australian PGA

Jordan Zunic – 0.75pt ew @ 66/1 (1/5 odds 6 places Sky bet)

Other bets

Rickie Fowler, Harold Varner III and Bernd Wiesberger – 0.5pts ew treble @ 2519/1

Weekly pts advised = 9pts

 

@theGreek82

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World Cup of Golf and Hong Kong Open – Betting Preview

Dean Burmester saved the day last week as he landed both the Top 10 and Top 20 bets to make up for some average outright picks, particularly on the PGA Tour. It takes its Christmas break now but there are still enough lower key events on the go to keep the more obsessive golf punters happy. The World Cup of Golf takes place down in Australia on the Melbourne sandbelt while the Hong Kong Open is being held as usual at Hong Kong Golf Club in Fanling. With just a few weeks left of the golfing year a winner is very much needed to finish the year in profit.

Total 2018 pts advised: 475.50

Total 2018 pts returned: 431.93

ROI = -9.16%


World Cup of Golf

The World Cup of Golf has never really lived up to what the name suggests it should be, but there is no question that moving it to the Melbourne sandbelt has boosted its draw for the pros. This week we are at the Metropolitan Golf Club and it is generally considered to be one of the best conditioned courses in Australia, which in itself is saying something. Thorbjorn Olesen and Soren Kjeldsen return to defend their title that they won 2 years ago at Kingston Heath. The format is the same with 28 two-man teams lining up for four rounds of team stroke-play. They will play two rounds of foursomes and two rounds of better ball.

The course is a typical sandbelt one with hard and fast conditions and large greens that are well protected by tightly mown run-offs and imaginative bunkering. It is exposed to any potential wind and the forecast for the week is for some rain and a moderate breeze. With these courses in Australia often playing like British links courses, scrambling is probably the most important aspect for me. You never see an Open winner who can’t chip and if we look at winners in Australia they all have tidy short games. Hitting greens is always important on difficult championsip courses and it will also be important here. With wide enough fairways I don’t think tee-shots will make or break the week here. With difficult fast greens I’m not sure how many birdie putts we will see so I’d be more interested in looking at those who hole out well rather than those who hole more than their share of 25 footers.

I was considering backing the defending champions here anyway but having just written down what it will take to win here I feel like I have just laid my case out. Olesen and Kjeldsen (Denmark) both have fantastic short games and as two British links winners they have shown they can handle playing the knock down approaches that windy, hard and fast conditions dictate. As well as the win here Olesen won the Perth International at Lake Karrinyup in 2014 and it has similar green complexes to the Metropolitan. Olesen won the GolfSixes this year with Luca Bjerregard further highlighting how much his laid back nature is suited to team golf. While Olesen has had a brilliant 2018 Kjeldsen’s hasn’t hit the same heights. His best finish was 6th at the KLM and he only managed two Top 10s in all. But over the last 3 months he sits 7th in driving accuracy and 5th in GIR so his reliable long game should compliment Olesen’s aggressive approach and we should see them dovetail nicely again. Given we know what they can do together I thought they were a tad over priced with Skybet at 14/1 and I’d definitely have them more in line with the firms who have them at 10/1.

South Africa’s team of Dylan Frittelli and Erik Van Rooyen looks very strong indeed on paper and if they gel together they could go well here. Both hit a very high number of greens on a consistent basis and while neither have been known for their short game, they have both been working hard on that aspect having realised that it was weak compared to their solid ball-striking. Frittelli’s record in Australia is brilliant having finished runner-up in the Australian PGA on his only visit in 2015. The winning score that year was level par and he showed that he can play tough championship layouts well. Van Rooyen had a brilliant first year on Tour even if he couldn’t quite bag the win when on his best run earlier in the year. He finished the year 22nd in stroke average and 38th in the Race To Dubai which is a very good starting point for his career. If we see that long-game assurance that has been present more often than not this year, they might make a pretty good team.


Hong Kong Open

Given the strength of the top 6 in the market it would be quite a surprise to see someone outwith that group lift the trophy in Hong Kong this week. But for the sake of singles I think we can take them on and try to find some each way alternatives. Motivation must be questionable in the likes of Garcia, Fleetwood and Reed while Cabrera-Bello and Fitpatrick simply don’t win enough to be backed at the prices despite their glaring suitability to the course. I will probably chuck the two Spaniards in some fun accas but I’ve found a couple of others that should be suited to the test and have more than enough ability to contend here.

The course is Hong Kong Golf Club and it has hosted since 1959, making it one of the longest running tournaments in the world. The course plays to that historical status as it remains one of the tighter, fiddliest courses in the world and it is very difficult to overpower. The tree-lined nature together with tricky doglegs make this a course where strategy is a must off the tee. Over run it and they will be blocked out from going directly at the green. Miss left or right and they will have very little option but to pitch back out. The plus point for the bigger hitters is that it is perhaps the shortest course used on either of the main Tours at just 6700 yards or so. That allowed the bomber Scott Hend to win here two years ago as he took on plenty of tee shots knowing the shorter holes would give him plenty of wedges. That is not the norm however and we usually see accurate types like last years winner Wade Ormsby or four time winner Miguel Angel Jiminez. Although with small, fast greens that are well protected even the most accurate players will be missing plenty of greens. That means year after year the leaderboard is full of excellent scramblers and that together with tee-to-green accuracy are probably the go to attributes this week.

Aaron Rai probably hasn’t quite had the 2018 season he hoped for coming off a 3-win Challenge Tour season in 2017 but he kept his card and made it to the Tour Championship. He is normally a very accurate operator from tee-to-green but he isn’t a big hitter at all. This course should play to his strengths even if he did miss the cut on his debut last year. That was his first start with a European Tour card so it may have been a daunting week for the young Englishman. With a season under his belt he should be a little more confident and we could see him flourish at the more strategic courses. He did have a bad run of form in the early autumn which threatended to curtail his season but he picked up with a 43rd in Turkey and then an 8th at the Nedbank to qualify for the DP World Tour Championship. He finished the 2018 season ranked 4th in driving accuracy and 7th in GIR so looks the type that should enjoy the test in Fanling and he is a very fair each way price at 66/1.

There was a time when Thomas Aiken was the straightest driver on Tour but he has struggled with the big stick the last couple of years which has had a knock on effect on the rest of his game. He remains a very capable player when everthing is working well however and a few weeks ago he played one of the best shots I have seen all season. He found himself directly behind a greenside lake on a 30 degree downward incline and he managed to pitch the ball out to some 8ft or so. It was quite brilliant and was typical of Aiken over the years who is as likely to fluff a chip shot as he is hole one such is his inconsistency. That 10th place finish in Turkey though definitely got my interest so I was very happy to see the 80/1 in this sort of field. He has only played here twice and we have a MC and a 31st which again highlights how streaky he can be. Two of his three wins have come on fiddly tree-lined tracks and having been playing better of late he looks a decent each way price in a field lacking any real depth.

Elsewhere Georgia Hall returns to the LET for her first regular Tour start since her Open win in August. This is a massive drop down in grade but that is reflected in her best price of 7/2. She has solid event form having finished 4th last year and 3rd the year before. The course has changed but that was the same last year and the last event here was won by Mel Reid who putted the lights out. So the course should suit Hall who putts brilliantly these days. It’s no single price but I’m going to throw her in a small stakes treble for a bit of fun. Garcia is surely the man to beat in Hong Kong having just made his debut there last year. With his recent form and suitability to the course he is the standout of the favourites even if he is hard to back at 15/2. Over in Japan the Casio World Open has attracted very little in the way of star names and that leaves two of the Tour’s bigger names at the head of the betting. Japanese star Imahira heads the market but it’s the 2nd favourite and defending champ Seung-Su Han that I prefer at a slightly sportier price. He signed off last week with a 67 for 10th place (1 shot ahead of Koepka) and prior to his win he was 4th in 2016. We should at least get a run out of an each way treble at a best price 496.5/1.


Summary of Bets

World Cup of Golf

Denmark – 1.25pt ew @ 14/1 (1/4 odds 4 places)

South Africa – 1pt ew @ 20/1 (1/4 odds 4 places)

Hong Kong Open

Aaron Rai – 0.75pt ew @ 66/1 (1/5 odds 7 places)

Thomas Aiken – 0.75pt ew @ 80/1 (1/5 odds 7 places)

Other

Georgia Hall, Sergio Garcia and Seug-Su Han – 0.25pt ew treble @ 497.5

Weekly points = 8pts

@theGreek82

RSM Classic and DP World Championship – Betting Preview

Having been on holiday for a couple of weeks in October I missed quite a bit of golf so I was keen to try to get a handle on what was happening again before advising any more bets. I think I’m back up to speed and we have good events on both Tours this week so it feels like a good time to jump back in. There are also a few other decent events as we hit that stretch of the year where it’s fun to play small stake trebles, four-folds and even five folds for the hopeful.

2018 pts advised = 461.50

2018 pts returned = 415.18

ROI = -10%


RSM Classic

The RSM Classic has long been a standing dish for the accurate plodders on the PGA Tour as it is one of the few remaining stops that isn’t over-powered. Both courses at Sea Island are fairly narrow and tree-lined with small, well protected bermuda greens. That combined with the excellent resort facilities make it a must stop for some of the older family orientated pros as they look to take advantage of an event that the young powerhouses normally stay away from. The last two events however have gone the way of young Tour maidens so you shouldn’t be put off if you fancy one of the new crop of Web.com graduates. Every year they come flying out of the blocks in the Fall Series and that has been no different this year with Cameron Champ already notching up his first win. But for my money this event will probably revert back to the norm and I definitely want to be with the more strategic, accurate sorts who have seen the course before in some capacity.

Jim Furyk received quite a hard time in the aftermath of the Ryder Cup, most of which was a little harsh. While it will have been a great privilege for the 2003 US Open winner to lead his country, there is no doubt that it will have been a long year with all the commitments involved. Coming off a decent rest it was interesting to see him play so well last week as he shot four rounds in the 60s to finish T6th. I think he will be looking to take advantage of another short, suitable course this week in Georgia. I’m surprised he never won here at his peak as Sea Island very much falls into Furyk’s wheelhouse, along with Harbour Town, East Lake and Copperhead where he has won. His course form is predictably solid though having finished 11th, 3rd and 6th on his only 3 appearances. He averaged 81% of fairways hit and 83% of greens in regulation on those 3 starts so the courses are clearly ones that fit his eye. Those same areas of his game were as strong as ever last week in Mexico where he ranked 1st in driving accuracy and 2nd in GIR. I’m expecting a strong performance and anything around 40/1 looks like a great bet to me.

Roberto Castro will be well worth following on these shorter courses this year. He confirmed that on just his 2nd start of the season where he overcame a poor start to post a 5th place finish at the Sanderson Farms. Castro gained his 2019 Tour card with a solid if unspectacular campaign but it was back in 2013 that he really announced himself with an opening 63 at Sawgrass to lead the Players Championship after day 1. He would finish down the field but it flagged him up as a player to watch on short courses where you have to keep the ball in play. In August of that year he also posted his best major finish of 12th at the US PGA around the ultimate plotters course at Oak Hill. (Jason Dufner, Jim Furyk, Zach Johnson and David Toms were 3 of those ahead of him!) I know there are plenty of people watching him closely this season and I’m expecting his price to be cut here so I tweeted this bet on Monday in the hope of people getting the best price possible. Castro’s event form isn’t great but his last start in Georgia was a 2nd place finish on the Web.com in April. He should be comfortable in the area given he studied at Georgia Tech and their former students have a good record in the state.

Chesson Hadley completes the PGA line-up this week as he remains a player that is hard to get away from when applying a stats based approach. It is surely just a matter of time before he wins again and last year he played the fall series brilliantly, doing everything but win. He has started similarly well again over the last month with a 2nd place in Kuala Lumpur and a 7th place at the Shriners. While his event form also isn’t fantastic he is another Georgia Tech alumni so should feel at home and his current stats match up perfectly for this test providing he is in control of his stock draw off the tee. He is 7th in ball striking and 1st in proximity to the hole and both should help him to another contending performance.


DP World Championship

For several years this was a benefit for the Tour’s best two players, Rory McIlroy and Henrik Stenson. From 2012 to 2015 nobody else got their hands on the trophy as McIlroy’s two wins sandwiched the Swede’s back to back triumphs. While that made it a difficult betting heat with strong single figure favourites, at least it helped to build a profile of what it takes to win around the Earth Course. Elite ball strikers who hit lots of greens and often miss plenty of putts. Despite neither being consistently great putters, they usually putted well here which tells me that perhaps the greens aren’t overly challenging. Matt Fitzpatrick was the next winner in 2016 and while he is normally a decent putter he is another brilliant tee-to-green player. Jon Rahm continued this mould again last year as another world-class iron player who isn’t always assured with the flat stick.

The Earth Course is one of the longer on Tour measuring nearly 7700 yards. It’s a Greg Norman design so perhaps we shouldn’t be surprised by that as he was consistently one of the longest and straightest drivers on Tour before technology changed the landscape.

Eight of the last nine winners had already won that season heading in but with only the top 60 players qualifying that perhaps shouldn’t be a big surprise.

Two of the last seven winners were doing the Dubai double having won the Desert Classic earlier in the year.

Rory McIlroy heads the market here at what would have been an unthinkable price (9/1) two years ago. That is gathering quite a bit of interest and there is no question it looks appealing on first look. However I can’t quite get his recent performances on suitable courses out of my mind. Yes he loves it here but he doesn’t appeal to me as a single bet. Those wishing to cover him could do worse than fire him in to some accumulators as the golfing world reaches silly season with multiple events.

A case could be made for the other 5 market principals but Rahm has only been seen once since an average Ryder Cup and he could only finish 22nd in the HSBC. Garcia is in brilliant form but at 10/1 I’d want to know that he wasn’t dwelling on last week’s loss. Fleetwood will probably play well but he just doesn’t win enough to side with at 11/1 at a course where he has never bettered 9th in 5 attempts. This all takes me down the market a little and to one of the most in form players in the European game.

Hao Tong Li will probably be quite popular this week despite not being the greatest of prices. Such is his level of current form and talent it would be no surprise to see him win a title this big. He has been knocking on the door heavily over the last month (5-2-11-9-5) and he has already shown his fondness of playing in Dubai when beating McIlroy head to head to win the Dubai Desert Classic. His event form is improving having finished 30th on his debut and then 13th last year. The Earth course should suit him perfectly with a bit of room off the tee for the sometimes erratic but powerful driver. His iron play has been excellent recently and that is usually what separates the field here. Li is so good that when he is putting well he should contend every week at this level and that explains the short odds as the bookmakers know what he is all about. His touch on and around the greens has been superb lately as he has been seen holing out lots of chips in recent weeks. On his last two starts he has ranked 2nd in the all-round ranking confirming just how well every part of his game is operating. With question marks about several around him in the market I see no reason why he can’t lift this title to cap off a career year for one of the most promising youngsters in the game.

Henrik Stenson hasn’t been seen since the Ryder Cup so there are both health and rust issues regarding his game. But they are more than factored into his price and to be frank that’s what has drawn me to the Swede this week. The fact that we can back him here at 25/1 is too good an opportunity to pass up for me. It’s not like he has played poorly this year either he has just suffered heavily from his elbow injury. He still ranked 1st on the PGA Tour in GIR, 4th in strokes gained: approaches and 8th in strokes gained: tee to green so his tee-to-green game has been as superb as ever when he has played. He laughed off those injury concerns at the Ryder Cup winning all 3 of his matches and he has had minor surgery since then which will hopefully have sorted the problem out. Lack of competitive golf is certainly a worry especially as he has to find his swing again after the surgery but this is one of his favourite courses and he will surely have been preparing to give it his best shot this week. I’d be annoyed at myself to miss out at this price so I must have a small bet on him.

Dean Burmester looks over priced in all the markets here this week given his course and current form. He was 11th last week where his whole game was in great shape bar his normally reliable putter. The powerful South African came 4th here last year on his debut and while I’d be surprised to see him come out on top this week I think he has a good chance of landing some place bets so I’ll play him in both the top 10 and top 20 markets.

Elsewhere I’ll be playing some fun small stakes accumulators across the 5 big events this week. The Dunlop Phoenix will surely be a shoot-out between Koepka and Matsuyama while Matt Kuchar looks the man to beat in the Australian Open. He said himself how well he was swinging it during last week’s win and there are few players in the world more suited to the hard and fast sandbelt courses in Australia. I’d be surprised if he doesn’t contend despite the jet-lag and emotions from last week.


Summary of Bets

RSM Classic

Jim Furyk – 1pt ew @ 40/1 (1/5 odds 7 places)

Roberto Castro – 0.75pt ew @ 100/1 (1/5 odds 7 places Betfair Sportsbook)

Chesson Hadley – 1pt ew @ 35/1 (1/5 odds 7 places Betfair Sportsbook)
DP World Championship

Hao Tong Li – 2pts ew @ 20/1 (1/5 odds 5 places Betfair Sportsbook)

Henrik Stenson – 1pt ew @ 25/1 (1/4 odds 5 places)

Dean Burmester – 1pt Top 10 @ 9/1 and 1.5pts Top 20 @ 7/2

Weekly points advised = 14pts

2018 pts advised = 475.50pts

@theGreek82