Ryder Cup Preview

Brooks Koepka started his first round well before having an absolute shocker from then on. I’m not sure what was up with him but the price was still wrong for me. His form looks a little worrying for the US team though as he was spraying it everywhere and he won’t get away with that at Le Golf National this week. Schauffele played well but came up 1 shot shy of the places.

In Europe all 4 picks took it in turn to get into contention on different days but all 4 also managed to finish at least one round with a double bogey. It was particularly annoying as they showed their suitability to the course the rest of the time but perhaps just got too greedy and aggressive at the wrong time.

On to Ryder Cup week though which isn’t always a fantastic betting event but you can normally find some fun bets to help add to the excitement of the best sporting event on the planet. Not a week for getting heavily involved stake wise.

2018 pts advised = 441

2018 pts returned = 413.18

ROI = – 6.3%


Ryder Cup

It’s always tricky to find an exciting or different betting angle for a Ryder Cup as there are only so many bets that can be had and lots of them are so obvious that nobody needs them pointed out! For starters Patrick Reed has played 2 Ryder Cups and he has top scored for the US team (3.5pts) on both occasions while coming 2nd in the overall points scoring. Ian Poulter has played 5 Ryder Cups and finished 1st (or 1st equal) in both the Europe and Overall markets on 3 of those. That’s quite a remarkable return even for a player who everyone knows to be a proper Ryder Cup legend. If we look at both their Ryder Cup win records then Poulter is 72.22% whereas Reed is on an even better mark of 77.78%. If we compare these with figures for other experienced Ryder Cuppers we can see how much they stand out. Excluding Koepka who has just played 1 event, the 13 players to have played in 2 or more events all post records between 16% and 63%. Even legends of the game like Woods (43.94%), Mickelson (47.78%) and McIlroy (57.89%) all teeter either side of the 50% mark. This can be taken lots of ways but to me it tells us what fine margins are involved in so many matches in this format and over time they can turn out to basically be a toss of a coin. But to put up numbers like Reed and Poulter it takes something a bit special and they are clearly at their best when lining up in this format. There is just something in their mentality that gives them that little bit extra when playing in match play. So despite Reed’s loss of form and Poulter’s advancing years we can still expect them to have good weeks, the only downside to perhaps betting on them is that they might not play enough matches. US have such an embarrassment of riches that should Reed not play well on Friday he might find himself only playing 3 matches whereas Poulter at 42 yrs old is unlikely to play more than 3 and certainly not 5. This means backing them in either the team market or overall market puts us potentially on the back foot from the word go.

Normally it would make sense to try to decide which players you think might feature in all 5 games. Looking back at the last 8 events, the top European points scorer has played 5 matches on 6 occasions with the other 2 having played 4 matches (one of those years was Celtic Manor where 4 was the maximum due to weather). The US top scorer has played in 5 matches on 4 occasions with the other 4 having played in just 4. Together that gives us 10/16 having played 5 matches but this improves to 12/16 having played the maximum number when we factor in Celtic Manor.

The top overall points scorer market is interesting as it has gone to a European in 7 of the last 8 events while the other one was a tie. You could look at that one of two ways; assume a US player is due the win or decide to stick with what looks to be a fairly solid trend.

With the overall quality improving almost every year and the 2018 event looking like the strongest ever on paper, it doesn’t look as necessary this year for the captains to have to play any of the big guns in 5 matches. However that is offset somewhat by the number of rookies playing; 5 in Team Europe and 3 in Team US. The picture is no less muddy!

This is basically all just a long-winded way of me saying that we want to be picking proven match play exponents who are highly likely to play a minimum of 4 matches. Again, this is quite obvious so a lot of the process in finding who that might be depends on who we think the captains will play together and who is suited to the fiddly Le Golf National course.

With Reed and Poulter looking up against it I’ve tried to think of a player who most fits their sort of determined mentality, has a good all-round game and can produce clutch short game magic when required. Tyrrell Hatton has a match play record of 71% and while all the team matches have been in low-grade events he has played in 2 WGC Match Play events and boasts a 57% record there. Thomas Pieters landed the spoils as a rookie at Hazeltine with 4 points from 5 and while Hatton isn’t as visually impressive as the Belgian you would be hard pushed to suggest he wasn’t as good a player. Hatton is a brutally good putter and if he can find the pace of the slower greens on Friday he might just hit the ground running like Reed did at Gleneagles on his debut. He has won the Alfred Dunhill Links the last two years and they always feature softer, slower links greens in October so despite him preferring slick, perfect greens I expect him to handle these without much fuss.

With him being a rookie there is a strong chance he will only play 3 or 4 matches but you would have said the same about Pieters until he forged his partnership with McIlroy. It looks like Hatton will probably be paired with Poulter and they could be a formidable pairing, thriving off each other’s energy. The other possibility for me is Tommy Fleetwood but it would be quite bold to stick 2 rookies together. Either way I think he looks over priced in both the Top European and Overall markets so I’m going to have a small interest on both. This could all come crumbling down early on Friday if he misses the morning session but I think his odds more than reflect that so I’m happy to take a chance that he is given enough matches to allow the bets to at least have a run.

While Sergio Garcia is undoubtedly a huge presence in the team off the course there is no way he was picked just for that. Garcia is a foursomes dream and especially on a course like Le Golf National where the fairway has to be found. Garcia shot the lowest round since 2010 there when he fired a Saturday 64 just 3 months ago. Garcia has a 70% foursomes record and his 61% in the fourballs isn’t too shabby either. With 5 rookies on the team I wouldn’t be surprised to see Garcia given the chance to play his way into the event on Friday morning in the first session. He will be a perfect partner for any rookie and boasts 3 1/2 points from 5 in RC team matches when playing with a rookie. If we are going on the practice groups then he may well play with Alex Noren and that could be a dream combo around LGN with Noren a former winner and his often deadly putting would compliment Garcia’s long game assurance. Of course he might play terribly on Friday and sit out Saturday completely but you can often throw the form book out the window at the Ryder Cup especially where a relentless ball striker like Garcia is concerned and I think he is a little over priced in the Top European market at 12/1.

I’m keen for a top US play but I’m struggling with anything beyond the obvious and there doesn’t appear to be any clear value to me. Rickie Fowler might just be about the best bet though when we consider all the factors. He keeps the ball in play more than many of his team mates and he has multiple pairing options given his popularity and all-round game. He played well enough at the Tour Championship and I think he will be looking to sign off a disappointing season in style. Fowler doesn’t have the best of records to date in the Ryder Cup (40.9%) but I think that could change this week. He should play 4 of the matches and that gives him a decent chance should he get off to a good start on Friday.

Looking at the Ryder Cup Outright market itself it’s not a market that I would want to get terribly involved in as you are working with very short prices on something that is almost a coin flip. That would definitely have me leaning to Europe at 2.38 on Betfair and I may yet get involved if they go north towards 2.50 but it’s not something to be particularly confident about. I think the course suitability for Europe negates the stronger US team and I’m expecting a very tight event again. While Europe have won 10 of the matches to US’ 8 matches (with 1 tie) they are usually tight affairs. In 10 of the 19 matches neither team has scored more than 15 points and if we total up the points since it became Europe v USA then the competitive nature of the event is only highlighted further as Europe lead by just 269 to 263. I’m definitely getting the draw onside and if last week had been a bit more succesful I’d maybe have had 3 or 4 attempts at the score but I don’t really want to be backing against Europe so I’ll take the 14.5-13.5 score line in Europe’s favour too. I’ll be backing both these on the exchange hoping that a tight affair allows some trading out options.

I’ll finish with a fun requestabet that looks like it could have some legs. Skybet priced the following up at 13/2 for me and there’s a lot to like about that price.

Europe +2.5, Hatton Over 1.5pts, Watson Under 1.5pts, Rose Over 2.5pts.

Europe will just need 13 pts for the handicap part to land while we have covered Hatton already. Everything about the combination Le Golf National and Bubba Watson looks uncomfortable and that was the case when he played there some 5 years ago as he missed the cut in angry fashion. With him arriving in poor form I’d expect him to play no more than 3 matches and with a miserable Ryder Cup singles record of 0 wins from 3 he will up against it to get more than 1 point. Conversely Rose arrives as the hottest player in world golf and will surely play 5 matches. Throw in his 63% RC record and he looks likely to pick up at least 3 points which he has done on 3 of his 4 Ryder Cup appearances to date.

There is definitely a case to be made for betting the top player markets win only to avoid having two bets go wrong on day one.  That is how I’ve done it in the past but this year I’ve swayed on the side of each way given they are all bigger than 10/1.


Summary of bets

Tyrrell Hatton – Top European – 1.25pt ew @ 28/1 (1/4 odds 3 places Skybet)

Tyrrell Hatton – Top Overall – 0.75pt ew @ 50/1 (1/4 odds 4 places)

Sergio Garcia – Top European – 1pt ew @ 12/1 (1/4 odds 3 places)

Rickie Fowler – Top US – 1.25pt ew @ 11/1 (1/4 odds 3 places)

Europe 14-14 US – 1pt @ 13.0 (Betfair Exchange)

Europe 14.5-13.5 – 1pt @ 12.5 (Betfair Exchange)

Above Requestabet – 1.5pt @ 13/2

 

Weekly points advised = 12pts

 

@theGreek82

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2018 Tour Championship and Portugal Masters – Betting Preview

I should be feeling refreshed after a week off the previews but I must admit I’m struggling to care too much about this week with the Ryder Cup looming and that might be the same for anyone finding themselves lagging behind off the pace at East lake this week. Despite my initial ambivalence though I’ve managed to get quite heavily involved!

Two weeks ago Nach Elvira grabbed us a place and that kept the blog creeping ever closer to being back in profit. One good week will turn it all around again…….

2018 pts advised = 424

2018 pts returned = 413.2

ROI = -2.55%


Tour Championship

I must admit despite my love of East Lake I really found it hard to get any excitement for this with Ryder Cup looming next week. To be honest I’m not sure why they have these back to back with the majority of players involved in both events. For some this will be a bit of a nuisance as those languishing down in 25th-30th can’t really have any significant impact on proceedings and would surely rather be in France preparing. For others towards the top of the Fed Ex rankings they will be dreaming of a $12m pay-day on Sunday but to be honest most of the guys wouldn’t even really notice it in their bank accounts. I’m struggling to find any sort of angle in from a motivational point of view and therefore this has all the makings of a damp squib of a tournament where the likes of Bryson, Rose and DJ could find themselves playing their own tournament over the weekend.

But we may as well look at the design as East Lake is a bit of a gem and one of designer Donald Ross’ finest efforts. It is a long and strategic par 70 with dog-legged fairways that wind their way through the trees and around the East Lake itself. The challenge is an all-round one as no aspect of the course is easy. The correct side of the fairways are required in order to again find the right area of the green and all this demands accuracy over power which is so often the case on Ross courses that stand the test of time better than most classical layouts. Rees Jones carried out a redesign in the late 90s to help bring it back to Ross’ original design while also allowing some future proofing. The result has been a course that has the held the Tour ending event ever since 2004 and it still presents a very fair challenge.

Greens in regulation is usually the name of the game at East Lake but as important is leaving the ball below the hole. Most of Ross’ courses have greens that slope back to front meaning that long is no use and distance control is paramount to ensure that you don’t short side yourself. Ball-strikers come to the fore which we can see not only from East Lake leaderboards but at most Donald Ross designs in general. The only other regular stop of his on the PGA Tour is Sedgefield and the form stacks up between the two, even more so now that they both have bermuda greens. Indeed the last two Wyndham winners have both won at East Lake. Other courses used recently include last week’s Aronimink GC, 2014 US Open venue Pinehurst No. 2 and 2013 US PGA host Oak Hill. Before Schauffele last year, the previous 8 Tour Championship winners were all inside the top 35 at Pinehurst while 4 of the top 10 at Oak Hill are now East Lake winners. As Justin Rose proved when he nearly doubled up at Aronimink, Donald Ross form nearly always repeats itself. Indeed that leaderboard wouldn’t be the worst starting place for research ahead of this week where 4 of the top 8 have won here before.

Brooks Koepka certainly has a point when he suggests he doesn’t get the credit he deserves and that looks to stand true with the bookmakers this week if nobody else. Koepka is 5th in the betting this week at 14/1 and behind Rose, McIlroy, DJ and JT. In the last two seasons those 4 men have 1 major between them while Brooks has 3. “But Koepka isn’t suited to East Lake!” I hear you shout. Well I’d maybe tend to agree with that but for someone who didn’t like it last year he did rather well by finishing 6th. The only one of those ahead of him here in the betting was JT who finished 2nd to lift the Fed Ex Cup. “But he’s in poor form!” Not really. Koepka signed off his first look at Aronimink with 65-66 over the weekend which followed a 12th and an 8th in the first two play-off events. Of course his previous event before the play-offs was the small matter of his US PGA win. On the season he ranks 10th in bogey avoidance which is always key here and he is 12th in strokes gained: tee to green.

Yet again Koepka is being massively under estimated and 14/1 looks a fantastic price. Koepka has stated himself that he often struggles to focus on some of the regular events, instead needing the intensity of a major to bring about the required concentration. I’d wager that lifting the Tour Championship, Fed Ex Cup and Player of the Year all in one swoop will have Koepka massively focussed heading to Atlanta. To me that makes him possibly the most dangerous player in the field and he really should be a lot closer to Rose in the betting. With it being the final event of the 2018 season I’m keen to secure a profitable season so I’m going in heavy on Brooks to try to take advantage of the value.

Francesco Molinari looks worth a bet here as the course could almost be custom-built for the tee-to-green machine. Find the fairway, hit the green and two-putt for par will do no harm at East Lake especially as things firm up over the weekend. Molinari has held his Open winning form over and was 8th last time out at Aronimink. He will arrive for his Tour Championship debut oozing confidence and decent week with the putter should see him go well. For good measure he was 23rd at Pinehurst in 2014 and 33rd at Oak Hill where he ranked 1st in GIR and 2nd in fairways hit!

Despite nobody having won the Tour Championship twice in a row and only Phil having even won twice at East Lake, I think Xander Schauffele looks to be a nice enough price to do just that. He arrives off the back of a 3rd place finish at Aronimink where he ranked 3rd in the all-round ranking. When all parts of his game are working he usually goes close and in theory winning here on his debut should be a lot harder than winning again this time. His best results this season have again been at difficult championship layouts with a runner-up finish at the Players being followed by another 2nd at Carnoustie. He seems to enjoy a tee to green test and I don’t imagine last year’s performance was a fluke.


Portugal Masters

The Portugal Masters heads to Vilamoura and the Dom Pedro Victoria Golf Course for the 12th time, which gives us a very nice bank of form to look at. The course is a wide open, exposed par 71 where its relative lack of length and minimal rough allow low scoring and very straight forward conditions. Everyone in the field will find themselves hitting in excess of 65% of these huge greens and more often than not that results in a bit of a putting competition. The bombers have the advantage that they can let rip and not be penalised but they will also be able to be more aggressive with their approaches and find the right area of the greens.

Last year’s winner certainly isn’t what you would call a good putter but Bjerregaard gave himself so many looks with his brilliant approaches that he found the pace early on and went on to rank 1st in the greens. He was chased home by Marc Warren who hit 82% of his greens despite ranking 3rd last in fairways hit from those that made the cut. In 2016 Harrington was similarly wayward with both his driving and approaches yet his short game display rolled back the years as he averaged just 25 putts per round. The 2015 winner Andy Sullivan did most things well but perhaps most striking was the fact that he got up and down for par on all 13 occasions where he missed a green.

This helps confirm what we know about the Dom Pedro course and it is the sort of skill set required at similar events like the Qatar Masters and the Alfred Dunhill Links. There are many repeat offenders on those leaderboards and they are worth a look at to potentially help with angles in this week.

With just 4 regular season events left many of the players will find themselves looking at the Race To Dubai rankings to see what is required of them. This will differ greatly across the field as some simply look to secure their 2019 card while others aim to break into or consolidate their position in the top 60. Then of course we have the top tier of players who will be looking to take advantage of 10 of the 12 Ryder Cup players being absent as they jostle for position at the top of the rankings. The whole narrative begins to make for an interesting event, even if eyes are already being drawn to France and Le Golf National. This motivation angle has helped me find some attractive looking bets as those trading under 20/1 all look short enough to me. With as many as 8 places being paid this week I think there is definitely some each way value to be had.

There is simply no way for me to avoid backing my main man George Coetzee here at 50/1. Putting an indifferent summer aside it looks a massive price when we consider he was 7th here last year. Last week in Holland Coetzee was back to letting rip off the tee as he ranked 1st in driving distance. This is an aspect of his game that has been up and down as he has tried to find a balance between accuracy and distance off the tee. That won’t matter too much in Vilamoura as you can pretty much hit it sideways off the tee and still have a chance of finding the green. Coetzee will then be aggressive enough with his short irons to go flag-hunting and very few in the field putt better on these grainy types of greens. Coetzee is currently outside the top 60 on the Race To Dubai so he knows he has to finish the season strongly. Despite that position of 66th though he still ranks 9th in putts per round and 42nd in scrambling. If he has a decent week with the approach play I’d expect another contending performance on a course where his results read 7-31-21-6-3.

ryan_fox_photo_getty_images_577c1be068

My next bet is another repeat offender and one that I definitely want to be onboard for when he gets his first win. For Ryan Fox it is very much a matter of time and he fits a similar profile to last year’s winner Lucas Bjerregaard. Both had been posting plenty of top 10s and contending in very strong European Tour fields throughout the year. Fox was extremely unlucky not to win in Ireland when Knox scuppered him with consecutive 40ft putts on the 18th hole. The wider links fairways allowed Fox to let rip and he ranked 3rd in GIR for the week. Indeed Fox ranks 20th for the season in GIR and despite his missed cut here last year he should really be perfectly suited to the exposed course. I’m in danger of backing him at restrictive prices but I have to give him another go on a layout like this. Fox ranks 11th on the Race To Dubai rankings and the only man above him in this field is favourite Olesen. That suggests maybe 33/1 isn’t too bad at all with 8 places as he looks to break into the top 10.

I couldn’t decide between Jordan Smith and Nino Bertasio for a 3rd pick so instead I’ve added them both. Smith showed a glimpse of his 2017 form again last week as he ranked 10th at the KLM Open. That was another trending performance as he had been 36th in Czech Republic before a 20th place finish in Denmark. Smith ranked 1st in the all-round ranking last week and while this is his debut at the course he has a 6th at the Qatar Masters where form always ties in nicely with the Vilamoura course. He looks a very solid each way prospect at 50/1.

Bertasio was 12th here last year and that makes sense as you would expect him to enjoy the extra space off the tee. He was tipped to go well last week in KLM but he didn’t hit enough fairways or greens. Both of those will be considerably easier to hit this week with wide open fairways and big undulating greens. Bertasio is a deadly putter who will thrive on the well maintained grainy surfaces and enjoy the difficult lag-putting from distance. As ever he is in a lofty position in most of the short stick stats; 15th in putts per round, 12th in one putts and 29th in strokes gained: putting. He will be confident of improving on last year’s result and is worth a small each way play at 80/1.


Summary of Bets

Tour Championship

Brooks Koepka – 3pts ew @ 14/1 (1/5 odds 5 places general)

Francesco Molinari – 1pt ew @ 25/1 (1/5 odds 5 places)

Xander Schauffele – 1pt ew @ 33/1 (1/5 odd 5 places)

Portugal Masters

George Coetzee – 1.25pt ew @ 45/1 (1/5 odds 8 places Skybet)

Ryan Fox – 1pt ew @ 33/1 (Skybet)

Jordan Smith – 0.75 pt ew @ 45/1 (Skybet)

Nino Bertasio – 0.5pt ew @ 80/1 (Skybet)

 

Weekly points advised – 17pts

 

@theGreek82

2018 Omega European Masters and BMW Championship – Betting Preview

Erik Van Rooyen grabbed us a full place with a brilliant closing round of -7 but it could have been so much better. He failed to birdie both the par 5s on the back 9 as well as the driveable par 4 so while it was a great round it was a bit gutting that he missed out on the play-off by 1 shot. I was hoping there would be more returns on the PGA Tour with Fleetwood sitting 4th at the half way stage. But he played fairly poorly on Sunday and Monday to let us down again. I’m starting to think for all his talent that he might just be falling into the Rickie Fowler category of being regularly under priced due to his popularity.

This week on the PGA Tour we have the penultimate Play-Off event in Pennsylvania while the European Tour takes its traditional September visit to Switzerland.

2018 advised points = 412

2018 points returned = 404.5

ROI = -1.8%


European Masters

This week for some reason I thought there was a week’s break on the PGA Tour so I spent most of my time on the European Tour. But unfortunately I’ve not had time for much of a write up for either after noticing the BMW Championship was actually this week.

The Tour heads to Switzerland and the world-famous Crans resort where the pros enjoy one of the more relaxing stops on Tour. The course is a tree-lined fiddly one where keeping it in play off the tee is crucial to allow full visibility of the flags. From there it often resembles a wedge off as there are so many short holes. With fiddly greens though the aggressive flag-hunters will miss some of these and a look through the stats tells us that most winners here scramble brilliantly.

Erik Van Rooyen has to stay in the team after last week. He simply has to win sometime soon as the level of golf he is playing is quite brilliant for a rookie. On another tree-lined layout his accurate game will help him and from the limited action available last week his short game looked to be quite solid too. He ranked 26th in scrambling and 12th in putting which backs that up. Every year it’s all about hitting greens at Crans and Van Rooyen ranks 4th on the European Tour in GIR but that’s good enough for 1st in this field. If the short game improvement remains around the fiddly course then he surely contends yet again.

Ryan Fox is another player like EVR who has played some brilliant golf in 2018 and his win has to be on the horizon. He missed a few events over the last month that looked custom-built for him so he must have needed the rest for whatever reason. Crans doesn’t immediately stand out as a venue that will suit the bomber but you would have said the same about dual-runner up Scott Hend. The course is short enough that they can get the ball in play with an iron on the tighter holes and demolish some of the more forgiving ones. Fox’s short to mid irons have been very impressive this year and he ranks 14th in GIR and 5th in strokes gained: tee to green. He finished 9th here last year and is still improving. He should hopefully pepper these flags with his wedges so if he has a decent week with the putter then he could get that maiden win.

I was surprised to see Alexander Bjork leading the ET in strokes gained: approaches for the season and that pretty much made him an auto pick at 50/1. Everyone knows how brilliant a short game he has but his iron play isn’t always what it needs to be to contend. He is coming in off two missed cuts but they were at the US PGA and then the Nordea Masters in his homeland which brings about extra pressure. He has had a rest since and will be confident of improving on his debut finish of 16th last year. That was all about his putting though and with the approach play improvement we have seen this year then he might go even better.

Nacho Elvira is another who has been threatening to win but for a longer period than Van Rooyen or Fox. He came the closest yet at his home Open earlier this year when he led Jon Rahm briefly down the stretch. He finished 3rd and hasn’t really contended since but his results have been OK with just 2 missed cuts. He comes in off two consecutive top 25s and last week in Denmark he ranked 2nd for GIR. His course results are 59-MC-20 with the 20th coming last year when I backed him at a similar price. With his iron-play in great shape I think he should go well here again.


BMW Championship

I’m taking a break from backing the consistent, season long tee-to-green machines this week despite Matsuyama and Finau placing one week too late in Boston. This probably means Fleetwood or Cantlay will go on to win but they were nowhere near good enough last week so why should it be different on another classical ball-strikers course this week.

The course is Aronimink and its an out-and-out Donald Ross design. It hosted the AT&T National in 2010 and 2011 but hasn’t been seen since. It is a 7230 yard par 70 and on both those occasions it played tough enough for a regular PGA tour stop with Justin Rose winning in 2010 on -10 and Nick Watney reaching -13 a year later.

Nick Watney has only won 5 times on the PGA Tour with Justin Rose having won 9 times. But they still have 3 common courses on which they have won. As well as Aronimink they both won the WGC Cadillac at Doral and both won the Zurich Classic at TPC Louisiana. Cameron Smith won the new team event at the Zurich Classic last year for his first PGA Tour win and he looked back to his best when finishing 3rd last week. Watney and Rose both ranked 1st in the all-round ranking when they won at Aronimink and last week Smith was 3rd in the ARR. The list of winners at TPC Louisiana has more Donald Ross experts beyond just Rose and Watney and form at his courses always carries over. Despite not being a Ross design, the link looks solid and I think we can expect Smith to continue his fine play this week. We have seen plenty of younger, hungry players play well throughout the play-offs in recent years and Smith might be the man this year.

Pat Perez withdrew after 54 holes last week as his wife was due to give birth. He is now a proud father of a baby girl and he looks massively over priced with Paddy Power here if he does tee it up. That’s before we even consider the nappy factor! Perez has been playing steady enough since he contended at the Open in July, missing just the one cut when playing out of his comfort zone in Germany. Perez was runner-up at the Zurich with Jason Dufner this year and one of his wins came at the CIMB Classic where Watney has won and Overton (two 3rd places at Aronomink) has finished runner-up. If it plays too long then Perez may struggle but driving distance certainly wasn’t too crucial in 2011 with KJ Choi finishing 2nd so Perez should have enough short to mid irons to be able to compete. He at least has a good knowledge of the course as he made the cut in both 2010 and 2011.

Kevin Kisner has always struck me as someone who should thrive on Donald Ross courses and he did just that last year. He came 10th at Sedgefield before finishing 3rd at East Lake in the Tour Championship. Throw in a runner-up finish at TPC Louisiana and I think he looks massively over price here at 100/1. Kisner has had a couple of slower weeks possibly struggling with the pressure of trying to make the Ryder Cup team. There will still be a little bit of that but with 3 picks already announced he probably realises there are a few ahead of him in the pecking order. That will hopefully allow him to refocus and return to the form we saw in the summer where he came 2nd at the Open and 12th at the US PGA. That surely warrants him being a shorter price in just a 70 man field.

It’s a slightly different strategy this week with a few outsiders but we have seen plenty of unheralded players go well deep into the play-offs so a slight change might just pay dividends.


Summary of Bets

European Masters

Erik van Rooyen – 1.25pt ew @ 40/1 (1/5 odds 7 places)

Ryan Fox – 1.25pt ew @ 30/1 (1/5 odds 6 places)

Alexander Bjork – 1pt ew @ 50/1 (1/5 odds 7 places)

Nacho Elvira – 0.5pt ew @ 66/1 (1/5 odds 7 places)

BMW Championship

Cameron Smith – 1pt ew @ 50/1 (1/5 odds 6 places)

Pat Perez – 0.5pt ew @ 300/1 (1/5 odds 7 places Paddy Power)

Kevin Kisner – 0.5pt ew @ 100/1 (1/5 odds 6 places)

 

Weekly pts = 12pts

 

@theGreek82