I don’t have a lot of time for writing much here this week so it’s mainly going to be the bets. Will update profit and loss after US Open.
This week we head in to the 3rd major of the year and back to Torrey Pines for the first time since Tiger’s famous 2008 play-off win against Rocco Mediate. We do see the course every February though for 3 rounds of the Farmers Insurance Open.
Torrey South is a brute of a course (7685 yards) that rewards elite tee to green golf. It’s long and narrow with fairly thick rough even in February and on top of that these are some of the smallest and firmest greens on Tour. All these details are likely to be accentuated by a summer US Open slot. The greens are the tricky poa annua while the rough is the lesser seen quirky kikuyu grass so experience of the course or similar grasses should be advantageous.
I’ve tried not to over complicate matters and mainly looked at elite tee to green golfers who have some positive results either at Torrey or similar west coast poa annua greens like Riviera or Pebble Beach. Stats like total driving and strokes gained: tee to green will be crucial and given the thick rough and length of the course any approach stats from 175-225 yards are worth a look together with approaches from the rough as everyone will miss plenty of these narrow fairways. Therefore those who are accomplished at taking their medicine and just finding any portion of the green from the rough will fare better than those who are more aggressive over 4 tough rounds at Torrey.
A lot will be said about Jon Rahm this week as the Covid-recovering favourite and as many people will dismiss him at the odds as will back him. It will come as no surprise to anyone that he’s my main bet this week and at the odds he probably should just be a win bet. Although such is his consistency I’m going to play the outright on the Exchange and also have a stakes saver top 10 bet. Rahm is a winner around the course, sits 2nd on Tour tee-to-green, 6th for GIR over 200 yards and also has the most top 10s this year despite his equipment change. It’s testament to his raw ability that he has managed to switch so seamlessly and while he isn’t yet a winner this season that is unquestionably just a case of bad luck having been 6 shots clear at Memorial before his positive Covid test. Quite simply he is the man to beat and he has been banging on the door in majors for the last 3 years. I think his time has finally come and while the price definitely won’t be for everyone I’d hate to miss out so I’m happy enough with the 11.0 on the Exchange
Next up is local lad Patrick Cantlay who has looked a major winner in waiting such is his love of long difficult championship courses. Cantlay is two places below Rahm tee to green in 4th and he was the man who took advantage of Rahm’s misfortune at Muirfield Village. That was a ball-striking clinic from the would be front 3 and we could well see the same names on top of the leaderboard again come Sunday. Although Morikawa’s lack of power puts me off him a little this week. Despite ranking 4th tee to green that’s mainly the result of him being a golfer with no real weakness. He is very good at everything and manages his game well so any mistake he makes tend to be a bogey rather than a double and therefore his game is ideal for a 72 hole US Open grind. It’s surprising then that he’s yet to post a top 10 in the US Open but that’s surely just a matter of time and given his form I really like his chances of doing that this week.
Tony Finau’s form at Torrey together with his long game consistency make him a bet at 28/1. Despite him not having won for 5 years few would be too surprised if he ran out a comfortable US Open winner around a course like this where his 5-15ft putting shouldn’t be as important as a regular week. Again referring to the PGA Tour strokes gained: tee to green Finau sits another two spots further down from Cantlay in 6th position. He did everything but win earlier in the season and with Finau it’s not a case of can he win again it’s when will he win again. He was runner-up here in February and I’d expect another contending performance this week at a fair each way price.
Finally my only outsider is Sam Burns again after he was forced to withdraw at the US PGA when fancied to go well. A US Open test isn’t perhaps as ideal as a US PGA this early in Burns career but it’s the west coast factor together with his odds of 80/1 that means I can’t leave him out. Burns led the field at Riviera a merry dance for 2 rounds earlier in the year and after a wobble he still came back strong to finish T2nd on the Sunday. This was proof to me of what sort of course Burns thrives on and the stats back up the suitability of a long and difficult championship course. He sits 42nd on Tour tee-to-green which is solid but he is 10th in GIR over 200 yards, 4th in rough proximity from 175-200 yards and leads the Tour in approaches over 200 yards from the rough. These all scream Torrey Pines to me but he isn’t the best around the greens so it’s not a given that he fully takes to the scrambling task this week but he does tend to chip better from proper rough rather than tightly mown run-offs. He is also putting very well this year and he has finished 40th, 49th and then 18th on his last three Torrey starts. That 18th this year could have been a lot better too as he sat T3rd going into the final round where he struggled with a 75. There is a slight worry that he still isn’t fully fit after his PGA withdrawal but he teed it up and played 4 rounds at Memorial so I’m hoping he is fit and if that’s the case there were few players in better form ahead of the PGA so he could be a little over priced at 80/1.
I’ve also had 3 place only bets with the first on Chez Reavie who bounced back to form last time out with a 14th which stopped a run of missed cuts. It was very timely as Reavie has some strong form on tough championship courses in California, particularly at Riviera which also has kikuyu fairways and poa greens. He has contended there on a couple of occasions and is not only an accurate driver but also a very good long iron player, particularly out of the rough (18th in rough proximity) and this bodes well for Torrey. He was 7th tee to green last week and if he has turned things around he looks over priced in a number of markets but I’ll play it safe with a top 40.
Louis Oosthuizen has some serious major form as everyone is well aware but he actually hasn’t missed a cut in one since the 2017 Open and has only missed 2 of his last 28 major cuts. His putting problems over the years seem to have been sorted this year so if he swings anything like he is capable of here then he should go well again. He was brought up playing on kikuyu grass while he went very close on the poa greens of Chambers Bay in 2015 and was 7th in his last California US Open in 2019. He has been in the top 30 in 11 of his last 30 majors but with the putter working well we can be greedier and play the top 20 market.
Justin Rose has won around Torrey Pines and won arguably the US Open at Merion which is probably the last time we saw genuinely long rough with narrow fairways. So with his sneaky 2021 major form I wanted to get him onside somehow. He will need to hit the ball a lot better tee to green this week but a top 20 looks very likely for someone who was made for championship courses before his rather ill-fated equipment change. He is around 3.0 on the Exchange and with bookmakers.
1st round leader
Rather than simply side with thosse who have had recent low first round numbers and an early tee time I’ve based my bets on low Thursday rounds in California this week given the slightly unique nature of both the kikuyu and poa annua. Jason Kokrak has been well backed in the outright market but I’m not sure I’d be terribly confident of him getting over the line in a major. However flying out of the blocks on Thursday at a course that suits seems hugely possible. Kokrak leads the Tour in first round scoring for 2021 but he has also averaged 69.3 on his last 12 California Thursdays. He won his last start and has top 30s in his last three Torrey appearances. Should go well and with his lowest round coming on Thursday in 6 of his last 8 events there is every chance that happens again so the 50/1 looks fair.
Patrick Reed has an even better recent California Thursday record as he averages 68.4 for his last 9 events. He won around Torrey earlier this year and has a solid US Open record. Again he is fancied to go well this week and his US Open Thursday average is 69.6 which tells us he is comfortable going out and playing well on day one in his national Open. Betfair’s 35/1 with 8 places looks like a solid each way play on Reed from the 1:36pm tee time
Finally I’m going with Scottie Scheffler again in this market having threatened to return the place money at the US PGA. His recent California round 1 scoring is even lower at 67.33 and with top 20s in his last 4 majors he has shown that long championship courses suit him perfectly. Quite how well he will take to this task I’m not sure as he has missed both his Farmers Insurance cuts to date but he seems to thrive in majors and a good opening round looks likely if nothing more beyond that.
Summary of Bets
Jon Rahm – 5pts win @ 11 and 3.5pts Top 10 @ 2.56 (Both Betfair Exchange)
Patrick Cantlay – 2pts ew @ 25/1 (1/5 odds 9 places WH)
Tony Finau – 2pts ew @ 28/1 (1/5 odds 9 places WH)
Sam Burns – 1pt ew @ 80/1 (1/5 odds 10 places Betfair SB)
Chez Reavie – 2pts Top 40 @ 3/1 (general)
Louis Oosthuizen – 2pts Top 20 @ 3.0 (Betfair Ex)
Justin Rose – 2pts Top 20 @ 3.0 (Betfair Ex)
1st round leader
Jason Kokrak – 0.75pts ew @ 50/1
Patrick Reed – 0.75pts ew @ 35/1
Scottie Scheffler – 0.5pts ew @ 50/1 (all 1/5 odds 8 places Betfair)
Weekly points advised = 28
Golf Greek 