US Open 2021 – Bets

I don’t have a lot of time for writing much here this week so it’s mainly going to be the bets. Will update profit and loss after US Open.

This week we head in to the 3rd major of the year and back to Torrey Pines for the first time since Tiger’s famous 2008 play-off win against Rocco Mediate. We do see the course every February though for 3 rounds of the Farmers Insurance Open.

Torrey South is a brute of a course (7685 yards) that rewards elite tee to green golf. It’s long and narrow with fairly thick rough even in February and on top of that these are some of the smallest and firmest greens on Tour. All these details are likely to be accentuated by a summer US Open slot. The greens are the tricky poa annua while the rough is the lesser seen quirky kikuyu grass so experience of the course or similar grasses should be advantageous.

I’ve tried not to over complicate matters and mainly looked at elite tee to green golfers who have some positive results either at Torrey or similar west coast poa annua greens like Riviera or Pebble Beach. Stats like total driving and strokes gained: tee to green will be crucial and given the thick rough and length of the course any approach stats from 175-225 yards are worth a look together with approaches from the rough as everyone will miss plenty of these narrow fairways. Therefore those who are accomplished at taking their medicine and just finding any portion of the green from the rough will fare better than those who are more aggressive over 4 tough rounds at Torrey.

A lot will be said about Jon Rahm this week as the Covid-recovering favourite and as many people will dismiss him at the odds as will back him. It will come as no surprise to anyone that he’s my main bet this week and at the odds he probably should just be a win bet. Although such is his consistency I’m going to play the outright on the Exchange and also have a stakes saver top 10 bet. Rahm is a winner around the course, sits 2nd on Tour tee-to-green, 6th for GIR over 200 yards and also has the most top 10s this year despite his equipment change. It’s testament to his raw ability that he has managed to switch so seamlessly and while he isn’t yet a winner this season that is unquestionably just a case of bad luck having been 6 shots clear at Memorial before his positive Covid test. Quite simply he is the man to beat and he has been banging on the door in majors for the last 3 years. I think his time has finally come and while the price definitely won’t be for everyone I’d hate to miss out so I’m happy enough with the 11.0 on the Exchange

Next up is local lad Patrick Cantlay who has looked a major winner in waiting such is his love of long difficult championship courses. Cantlay is two places below Rahm tee to green in 4th and he was the man who took advantage of Rahm’s misfortune at Muirfield Village. That was a ball-striking clinic from the would be front 3 and we could well see the same names on top of the leaderboard again come Sunday. Although Morikawa’s lack of power puts me off him a little this week. Despite ranking 4th tee to green that’s mainly the result of him being a golfer with no real weakness. He is very good at everything and manages his game well so any mistake he makes tend to be a bogey rather than a double and therefore his game is ideal for a 72 hole US Open grind. It’s surprising then that he’s yet to post a top 10 in the US Open but that’s surely just a matter of time and given his form I really like his chances of doing that this week.

Tony Finau’s form at Torrey together with his long game consistency make him a bet at 28/1. Despite him not having won for 5 years few would be too surprised if he ran out a comfortable US Open winner around a course like this where his 5-15ft putting shouldn’t be as important as a regular week. Again referring to the PGA Tour strokes gained: tee to green Finau sits another two spots further down from Cantlay in 6th position. He did everything but win earlier in the season and with Finau it’s not a case of can he win again it’s when will he win again. He was runner-up here in February and I’d expect another contending performance this week at a fair each way price.

Finally my only outsider is Sam Burns again after he was forced to withdraw at the US PGA when fancied to go well. A US Open test isn’t perhaps as ideal as a US PGA this early in Burns career but it’s the west coast factor together with his odds of 80/1 that means I can’t leave him out. Burns led the field at Riviera a merry dance for 2 rounds earlier in the year and after a wobble he still came back strong to finish T2nd on the Sunday. This was proof to me of what sort of course Burns thrives on and the stats back up the suitability of a long and difficult championship course. He sits 42nd on Tour tee-to-green which is solid but he is 10th in GIR over 200 yards, 4th in rough proximity from 175-200 yards and leads the Tour in approaches over 200 yards from the rough. These all scream Torrey Pines to me but he isn’t the best around the greens so it’s not a given that he fully takes to the scrambling task this week but he does tend to chip better from proper rough rather than tightly mown run-offs. He is also putting very well this year and he has finished 40th, 49th and then 18th on his last three Torrey starts. That 18th this year could have been a lot better too as he sat T3rd going into the final round where he struggled with a 75. There is a slight worry that he still isn’t fully fit after his PGA withdrawal but he teed it up and played 4 rounds at Memorial so I’m hoping he is fit and if that’s the case there were few players in better form ahead of the PGA so he could be a little over priced at 80/1.

I’ve also had 3 place only bets with the first on Chez Reavie who bounced back to form last time out with a 14th which stopped a run of missed cuts. It was very timely as Reavie has some strong form on tough championship courses in California, particularly at Riviera which also has kikuyu fairways and poa greens. He has contended there on a couple of occasions and is not only an accurate driver but also a very good long iron player, particularly out of the rough (18th in rough proximity) and this bodes well for Torrey. He was 7th tee to green last week and if he has turned things around he looks over priced in a number of markets but I’ll play it safe with a top 40.

Louis Oosthuizen has some serious major form as everyone is well aware but he actually hasn’t missed a cut in one since the 2017 Open and has only missed 2 of his last 28 major cuts. His putting problems over the years seem to have been sorted this year so if he swings anything like he is capable of here then he should go well again. He was brought up playing on kikuyu grass while he went very close on the poa greens of Chambers Bay in 2015 and was 7th in his last California US Open in 2019. He has been in the top 30 in 11 of his last 30 majors but with the putter working well we can be greedier and play the top 20 market.

Justin Rose has won around Torrey Pines and won arguably the US Open at Merion which is probably the last time we saw genuinely long rough with narrow fairways. So with his sneaky 2021 major form I wanted to get him onside somehow. He will need to hit the ball a lot better tee to green this week but a top 20 looks very likely for someone who was made for championship courses before his rather ill-fated equipment change. He is around 3.0 on the Exchange and with bookmakers.

1st round leader

Rather than simply side with thosse who have had recent low first round numbers and an early tee time I’ve based my bets on low Thursday rounds in California this week given the slightly unique nature of both the kikuyu and poa annua. Jason Kokrak has been well backed in the outright market but I’m not sure I’d be terribly confident of him getting over the line in a major. However flying out of the blocks on Thursday at a course that suits seems hugely possible. Kokrak leads the Tour in first round scoring for 2021 but he has also averaged 69.3 on his last 12 California Thursdays. He won his last start and has top 30s in his last three Torrey appearances. Should go well and with his lowest round coming on Thursday in 6 of his last 8 events there is every chance that happens again so the 50/1 looks fair.

Patrick Reed has an even better recent California Thursday record as he averages 68.4 for his last 9 events. He won around Torrey earlier this year and has a solid US Open record. Again he is fancied to go well this week and his US Open Thursday average is 69.6 which tells us he is comfortable going out and playing well on day one in his national Open. Betfair’s 35/1 with 8 places looks like a solid each way play on Reed from the 1:36pm tee time

Finally I’m going with Scottie Scheffler again in this market having threatened to return the place money at the US PGA. His recent California round 1 scoring is even lower at 67.33 and with top 20s in his last 4 majors he has shown that long championship courses suit him perfectly. Quite how well he will take to this task I’m not sure as he has missed both his Farmers Insurance cuts to date but he seems to thrive in majors and a good opening round looks likely if nothing more beyond that.

Summary of Bets

Jon Rahm – 5pts win @ 11 and 3.5pts Top 10 @ 2.56 (Both Betfair Exchange)

Patrick Cantlay – 2pts ew @ 25/1 (1/5 odds 9 places WH)

Tony Finau – 2pts ew @ 28/1 (1/5 odds 9 places WH)

Sam Burns – 1pt ew @ 80/1 (1/5 odds 10 places Betfair SB)

Chez Reavie – 2pts Top 40 @ 3/1 (general)

Louis Oosthuizen – 2pts Top 20 @ 3.0 (Betfair Ex)

Justin Rose – 2pts Top 20 @ 3.0 (Betfair Ex)

1st round leader

Jason Kokrak – 0.75pts ew @ 50/1

Patrick Reed – 0.75pts ew @ 35/1

Scottie Scheffler – 0.5pts ew @ 50/1 (all 1/5 odds 8 places Betfair)

Weekly points advised = 28

US Open 2020 – Betting Preview

A great week for the blog as it bagged it’s first outright winner since the return of golf with George Coetzee obliging in Portugal with comfortably the most assured final round of his career. Joakim Lagergren also provided the each money at 100/1 to boost the bank ahead of the 2nd major of the year. As arguably my favourite golfer it was interesting to hear George talk about the good work that his psychologist had been doing with him to help relax in contention. It really was evident over the weekend and I’m hoping his career will go on to even bigger things now that he has got his first win outside of Africa.

2020 pts advised = 267.5pts

2020 pts returned = 196.39pts

---

US Open

The US Open heads back to Winged Foot, NY for the first time since Geoff Ogilvy’s slightly surprise win in 2006. It brings with it a familiar conundrum for golf punters as we try to suss out whether Winged Foot will remain one of the very few strategic courses that cannot be overpowered by the modern golfer. This has been the case for anywhere between 7 and 20 years I suppose depending on who you ask and we have seen the now normal photos and videos showing deep, lush rough. How much credence to give that is difficult to know but one thing is for sure and that is that power will be an advantage. I suspect driving accuracy will be more important than the last few years given how long the course is at 7477 yards but it won’t be the be-all and end-all. A look through 2006’s leaderboard shows a mix of players but they were all either consistent fairway finders, elite iron players or the best scramblers around. Ogilvy was a great scrambler but certainly wasn’t lacking punch in the tee to green department either, Montgomerie possessed distance control with his irons that was a match for anyone in the world while Furyk was Mr Fairways and Greens throughout his career and Phil Mickelson was simply Phil Mickelson.

With it being a US Open then patience and strategy will of course be key and bogey avoidance will obviously be crucial with birdies at a premium. The green complexes are some of the more difficult the players will ever see on Tour. Not only are many of them raised above the fairways but they also feature big falls from back to front or side to side and have plenty undulations within. These will undoubtedly provide the biggest challenge to the players both in terms of hitting them to give themselves birdie putts under the hole but also in terms of missing in the right areas and long range putting if they do miss their mark. Lag putting is often overlooked at majors but it’s always crucial and with these greens on the larger side at 6,600 square feet that’s another stat worth looking at this week. The course is also a par 70 so with 12 par 4s on the course then par 4 scoring stats will also be noteworthy.

The course is yet another Tillinghast design in the New York area and there are lots of specialists who go well on such courses like Bethpage Black, Ridgewood, Baltusrol. Gill Hanse renovated the layout in 2015 ahead of the US Open returning. The players will be faced with predominantly poa-annua greens and it’s not a surface that everyone has mastered so form on the grass is worth looking at too.

I think the best way to attack this is to find an elite player who is excelling in all three main areas discussed (total driving, approaches and scrambling) and is also prominent in bogey avoidance, par 4 scoring and 3-putt avoidance.

I’ll be honest I found this very difficult indeed given the four main players that I like are all rather short in the betting. I ran a very basic stats model with all the attributes I considered important for Winged Foot around about a month ago. These were total driving, scrambling, GIR, bogey avoidance and par 4 scoring (nothing too fancy) and Webb Simpson came out on top closely followed by Rahm, Xander and Berger. There was then a big jump to the next player so I made these the main 4 on my list. But now they are all trading under 30/1 with Rahm and Schauffelle 2nd and 4rd favourites. It makes it difficult to know what to do as it’s hard to ignore value and I don’t see too much here with Rahm, Xander and Berger and their price is surely correct at the absolute best. However I also really think that these 4 have the game and form right now to all contend. Jeremy Chapman over the last few years had made serious profits from tipping up 3 or 4 of the favourites in events without even knowing the prices ahead of his publication in the Racing and Football Outlook. This feels like a week where that sort of strategy could pay dividends

My confidence in Jon Rahm winning a major this year is the first time I’ve had that feeling since Jason Day won the 2015 US PGA but his price is making things difficult as is the fact that I really, really think he wins the Masters! My recent record in finding major winners has been poor so why not change things up a little and side with the player who I think is the most likely winner in a win only bet? That’s what I’ll do here and have 5pts win only on the Spaniard. He is a short, single figure bookmaker price but I’m not sure that makes him the wrong price at 11.0 on the Exchange. Jordan Spieth went off a similar price ahead of his debut major win at Augusta and there are plenty similarities about their early career trajectories. But while Rahm’s recent major record has been excellent with 6 top 13s in his last 9 majors, Spieth only had one finish that high ahead of winning his major. You could look at that one of two ways, either that Spieth won so early he didn’t manage to accumulate any baggage that we associate with players when they come close and don’t get it done or the other way which I’m choosing. That is that Rahm has properly served his time, particularly in the US based majors and he has adapted his attitude well over the last 2 seasons to be more relaxed and patient in the big events. He has contended several times without really “losing” a major and I see no real evidence for us to think that he is too short a price. Whether readers want to be taking this small a price at a course as difficult as Winged Foot is another matter but I backed him earlier in the season and I’m backing him again this week so therefore I have to include him, however much some might mock the bet. His stats also happen to be superb for Winged Foot and the best they have ever been. He is 2nd in total driving, 18th in GIR, 11th in scrambling, 2nd in bogey avoidance, 5th in par 4 scoring and 4th in 3-putt avoidance. With 2 wins in his last 6 starts and both of those being won with single figures under par he looks primed for his first major win.

Xander Schauffele has perhaps given me an even bigger headache than Rahm as I really didn’t like the 12/1 and 14/1 that I was seeing with the best place terms on Monday. However after seeing that he was 16/1 with 9 places at William Hill I had to back him. Xander has contended in all three of his US Open appeances and finished inside the top 6 in all of them. With the way he is playing there isn’t much to suggest that he is under priced here to be honest. He won the 72-hole scoring side of the Tour Championship by 3-shots and while he has a clear love for East Lake, he also has a clear love for US Opens and also hasn’t been outside the top 20 on any of his three New York events to date. Geoff Ogilvy only ever won at the same course twice and that was the Kapalua course in Hawaii where Schauffele has finished 1st and 2nd on his last two appearances and that random titbit only adds to his case. He ranks 15th in total driving, 2nd in scrambling, 10th in GIR, 4th in bogey avoidance and 4th in par 4 scoring. The only slight negative for Xander is the poa-annua greens as he is yet to win on the surface. However he hails from California so will be more than used to them and he ranked 6th on the poa annua of Pebble Beach in last year’s US Open. It often takes punters a while to mentally adjust to golfers readily being availible at shorter prices early in their career but at 16/1 you are getting bigger than 3/1 about him placing which is something he has done in 6 of his 12 career majors and 5 of his last 8. For me that simple argument outweighs the one that suggests he’s too short as he doesn’t win enough and I’m happy to have a chunky each way bet.

I’m definitely backing Webb Simpson as he is forever under rated and the only slight niggle with him is that he has done all his winning on courses below 7400 yards. Other than that Webb finished last season ranked 14th in total driving, 11th in GIR, 12th in scrambling, 1st in bogey avoidance and 1st in par 4 scoring. Now you don’t win the US Open in stats alone but Simpson is a previous winner having landed the 2012 running at Olympic Club. He has also only missed one cut in the event and has had consecutive top 20s since his resurrection in the 2018 season once he finally found an effective new putting grip that allowed him to get his confidence back. He is still 25/1 with Hill’s 9 places and if he was a powerful, fashionable player then he would surely be around 16/1 given he is a proven major winner and has won twice in his last eleven events.

Daniel Berger is a player that I have struggled to get right and I don’t enjoy backing him but he was the 4th rated on my stats model. i just don’t think I can pull the trigger with him though as despite him being in the form of his life he just doesn’t yet have the consistent major pedigree I’d be wanting at 28/1. I may well add him on the Exchange as a cover bet if he drifts to 40 though.

Tyrrell Hatton has 3 major top 10s in the US and two of those have come in the New York/New Jersey area so he clearly likes playing in the area. Hatton got his first PGA Tour win just before the lockdown in a stellar field on a very difficult golf course as he won on a score of -4. He is back on form again having closed his play-off season nicely with a 25th and 16th before grabbing 7th in the Fed Ex at East Lake. Hatton is a player oozing with confidence at the moment and his all-round game should serve him well at Winged Foot. For the 2020 season he was 24th in total driving, 38th in GIR, 10th in par 4 scoring and 19th in bogey avoidance. Throw in the fact that he is one of the best putters in the world and thrives on poa annua and I think we have an excellent bet at 45/1 again with Hill’s 9 places.

Brian Harman is my main outsider and I think he looks rather over priced at 175/1 with Skybet’s 11 places. He performed favourably on my model and was already on my radar for this so I expect him to go well. Harman is a nice and tidy sort that enjoys a US Open test although it was at the lower scoring Erin Hills where he managed his best major result of T2nd. Harman finds plenty of fairways and possesses a very sharp short game so Winged Foot should suit him and he has some competitive experience of the course from the 2004 Amateur where he qualified for the match play section courtesy of an excellent 70 on this week’s West course. He also reminded us recently how well he can go in strong fields on difficult courses when he made a late run at the BMW Championship before finishing 12th. That was his most recent tournament and rounded his season off with form figures of 27-11-12. His stats also look good for this as he wass 9th in scrambling, 14th in par 4 scoring, 15th in 3-putt avoidance and 17th in bogey avoidance. His approach play isn’t always up to this standard but if he brings anything close to his best with his irons then he looks a fantastic each way bet.

Henrik Stenson seems to be the forgotten man this week and the only real reason for that is that he has just played twice since the return of golf with the former Open champion rightly prioritising other aspects of his life in these tricky times. I don’t think that is any reason for a US Open specialist like Stenson to be priced up at 110/1 and that price alone means I had to include him. Stenson has 9 top 30s from just 13 US Opens with 4 top 10s and 2 of those arriving in the last 2 runnings showing that if anything he relishes the event more than anything as he gets older. At his peak there are few better equipped to deal with Winged Foot such is his distance control and scrambling ability. We don’t know how he is playing ultimately but at 110/1 for a player of his calibre with 11 places you don’t need to and he will surely have been practising a lot in the 6 weeks since his US PGA missed cut. As a potential added course link bonus he was 7th at Baltusrol in 2016, 2nd at Gill Hanse’s Olympic course in Brazil and has form figures of 8-3-13 at Hanse’s Castle Stuart which features some difficult green complexes.

Finally a small, speculative play on Michael Thompson at 250/1 with Skybet. Far and away Thompson’s best major result was 2nd behind Simpson at Olympic Club and he tends to play well on similar courses. His win this summer was actually on a layout measuring over 7400 yards which suggests he can play well on longer courses, something that wasn’t always the case. His long game has gone back down hill again since that win but he has the right mentality for this sort of test and he should relish his first US Open since 2013. Thompson also played here in the 2004 US Amateur and shot a 71 in the stroke-play qualifying.

First Round Leader

Thomas Pieters has only played the two events at Celtic Manor since the restart but he was excellent at both and probably only lost the Celtic Classic thanks to one bad hole. I watched a fair bit of the coverage and some of his chips around the green were out of this world. His temperament and often wayward driving don’t make him an obvious US Open candidate and that has borne out in his two missed cuts in the event to date. However he was 2nd in total driving on his last start and he leads the European Tour in strokes gained: tee to green for the season so I wanted to side with him somehow. His two opening rounds since the restart have been 64-69 while 3 from 5 before the break were also in the 60s. Pieters hasn’t done much lately in the majors but he does have a US PGA 6th from 2018 where he opened with a 67 and a 4th at the Masters in 2017. It’s always risky with Pieters but at 100/1 he looks a nice bet to get off to a quick start on Thursday (or one of the least slow starts!)

Before the Fed Ex started heating up Kevin Kisner was flying out of the blocks on Thursday with a run of 67-69-65 before firing opening 72s at the BMW and Tour Championship. He ranks 31st in round 1 scoring and he’s no stranger to the day 1 leaderboard at a major having already shot a couple of PGA opening 67s, an Open 66 and a US Open 71 at Chambers Bay in difficult conditions. He also shot a 70 here in Championship conditions in the 2004 US Amateur. He finished the 2020 season in 16th for scrambling and he loves to grind out a score so should adapt quicker to most on Thursday and looks a solid each way bet at 70/1.

Patrick Reed loves Tillinghast courses, loves the New York area and often goes well on day 1 in these sort of events. He shot an opening 66 in his win at Bethpage Black and another Thursday 66 in his win at Liberty National across in New Jersey. I gave him full consideration for the outright but with Reed you aren’t always guaranteed that he will find enough fairways for 4 days in a row. But he hit plenty on his last start so he should be able to hold that over for the first round at least before things perhaps tighten up as the week progresses. I like Skybet’s 45/1 with 6 places for him here..

Also a quick word for Jason Kelly’s superb Fantasy Golf Major Sweep game that he runs on his website for every major. You can get a lot of fun for your £20 team entry with some very good prizes and I’d fully recommend it to anyone who doesn’t already play.

http://www.jasonkellygolf.com/Major%20Sweeps/

Summary of bets

Jon Rahm – 5pts win @ 11 on Betfair Exchange

Xander Schauffelle – 3pts ew @ 16/1 (1/5 odds 9 places William Hill)

Webb Simpson – 2pts ew @ 25/1 (WH)

Tyrrell Hatton – 1pt ew @ 45/1 (WH)

Brian Harman – 0.5pts ew @ 175/1 (1/5 odds 11 places Skybet) and 2pts Top 30 @ 3/1 (Betfair)

Henrik Stenson – 0.5pts ew @ 110/1 (1/5 odds 11 places Skybet) and 1pt Top 20 @ 5/1

Michael Thompson – 0.5pts ew @ 250/1 (Skybet)

1st round leader bets

Thomas Pieters – 0.5pts ew @ 100/1 (1/5 odds 7 places Betfair)

Kevin Kisner – 0.5pts ew @ 70/1 (1/5 odds 7 places Betfair)

Patrick Reed – 0.5pts ew @ 45/1 (1/5 odds 6 places Skybet)

Weekly points advised = 26pts