WGC Match Play – Betting preview

Apologies to any regular readers as Cheltenham took up most of my time last week so I didn’t get a chance to have a look too closely at the golf. I did manage to watch the final round though and McIlroy was extremely impressive. I don’t think I’ve ever seen him putt that well and it couldn’t have come at a better time for him with just over 2 weeks to go before the Masters. It really couldn’t be set up any better with the majority of the game’s best players all in fine form. Before then we still have the 2nd WGC of the season with the match play event in Texas

2018 pts advised = 103pts

2018 pts returned = 92.69pts

ROI = -10%

WGC Match Play

The WGC Match Play is back at Austin Country Club for a third year and we are now into the fourth edition of the round-robin group format. Some players have enjoyed the move away from straight knockout while others aren’t quite as taken and again there are a few of the world’s best missing here; Rose, Fowler, Koepka and Stenson all sit out of a tournament that still hosts 64 of the world’s top ranked 70 players. Unfortunately that still means no Tiger who has only managed to get to no. 105 despite his recent form in elite fields.


The course was designed by Pete Dye and the par 72 course sits at 7169 yards while being rather spectacular to the eye. It is a parkland course set along sprawling hills giving rise to some elevation changes and undulating fairways very akin to some British links courses. There are also a lot of deep, menacing bunkers that give it a further links appearance. While the fairways appear to be of average width they will certainly not feel that way standing on the tee. There are many hidden tee shots where the players are forced to carry valleys or shape the ball around trees. The numerous dog legs and elevation changes will also bring about some blind approaches and it appears that accuracy will be important this week with the irons. Whenever a course has elevation changes then distance control becomes absolutely paramount. As we have come to expect from Pete Dye designs (Sawgrass, RBC Heritage, Whistling Straits, PGA West), the greens are relatively small and they are undulating and tiered. Accurate approach shots will be required to find the correct portion of the green to allow a makeable birdie putt. But there will be many flags that simply have to be avoided with run-offs and green side bunkers aplenty. There are several examples of very aggressive players who play well in match play but similarly steady players that keep mistakes to a minimum can also thrive in the format.  The greens are TifEagle bermuda which was also in use last week at Bay Hill.

Just like stroke-play there are often different ways to succeed on a course but from what we have seen in the two editions in Austin so far, aggression and power are very advantageous indeed. When we look at the 2 winners to date at Austin Country Club (Dustin Johnson and Jason Day) there are a few things that jump out. Firstly they are two of the best players in the world, who were both on extremely hot winning runs at the time, each playing the best golf of their career. Secondly, they are two of the biggest hitters in the game and they used that length to dominate their matches on the relatively short course, attacking the flags and driving the greens wherever possible. Thirdly, they both had plenty of form on Pete Dye courses, particularly Whistling Straits where Day won his PGA and DJ should have won his in 2010. Johnson had also already won around Dye’s Crooked Stick course in 2016 while Day would go on to win the Players Championship at Sawgrass just 2 months later.


It is that profile of the two winners that led me to my main bet this week and that is Jon Rahm. I’d expect him to be popular this week so I’ve tried to post this a little earlier than usual to try to get a good price but it’s also worth noting that it is a Wednesday start this week in Texas. Rahm is another powerhouse off the tee and he is probably the only player that can compete with DJ and McIlroy in terms of power and “strokes gained: off the tee”. Rahm has already won this year in February but perhaps the most interesting thing about that win with regards to this week is where he got his win. It was at the Careerbuilder Challenge which involves two rounds at Pete Dye’s PGA West Course and also involves bermuda greens. Rahm’s form has tailed off a little since that win but he has still finished inside the top 30 on all 4 starts. There has been quite a bit of discussion about Rahm already this week as he apparently hit a 59 in a practice round at Austin Country Club on Monday (Note: sounds like it wasn’t actually at Austin CC after all). We also know he can do that in competition as he made the final last year only to lose 1 up to a red-hot Dustin Johnson. He has shown already in his short career that he thrives on the same sort of courses as both Johnson and Day so he looks the absolute standout candidate to follow them as winners of the WGC Match Play. With a win this calendar year and already having won on a Dye design he is also a great trends pick and looks like the best bet in Texas this week. But an extra little sweetener is that the form of those at the head of the market has resulted in recency bias probably giving us a price that is perhaps two or three ticks bigger than it should be. Obviously anything can happen in match play but in recent times this event has gone to one of the very best players so let’s have a confident each way bet on the world number 3 at 14/1.

I didn’t want to get too involved in this prior to the draw but there are two others that I quite like and I’m going to have a small bet on them both and hope they are all in different groups. As annoying as Paul Casey is, a confident PC in a match play tournament is a massive threat and he will be absolutely buzzing coming into this event after finally getting his 2nd PGA Tour win. We know he won’t be in the slightest bit phased by taking on the big names here and with his match play pedigree he could go deep in this tournament. Last year he won all three of his group games but lost to an inspired Tanihara in the first knockout match. Given how cocky Casey is you wonder whether he gave Tanihara the respect he deserved last year and I don’t think we will see him make the same mistake again this year. Casey is a two-time runner-up in this event while he has also won the European Tour’s Volvo Match Play event. He also has a very decent Ryder Cup record having won 56% of his available points. He doesn’t have a win around a Pete Dye course but he has been runner-up at both Crooked Stick and TPC River HIghlands. Worth a nice back up ew bet at 22/1.

Kiradech Aphibarnrat owes us nothing after winning the Perth Super 6s in February but he is playing some of the best golf of his career right now. He has won again since then when playing back on the Asia Tour and he also recorded his best WGC finish to date in Mexico where he was T5th. With all his travelling I’m not too worried about his missed cut at Bay Hill last week and he will be fully prepared having made the shorter journey from Florida. With two match play titles already we know he enjoys the format where he can be his ultra aggressive self knowing that he has the short game to back it up should he find trouble. That can be demoralising for opponents in the match play format and two years ago the only game he didn’t win in the group stages was against DJ, only exiting after a further play-off hole against the world no. 1. In most editions of this event we see a slightly left-field European Tour player make good progress and with the way Kiradech is playing that could easily be him this week. (Aphibarnrat has now been drawn in the same group as Jon Rahm, typical!! Anyway for those who don’t think it makes any sense backing them both just leave Aphi out or lower the stakes even more, I’ve stupidly backed them both already)

Adding one more Group stage bet for a further interest. With the form that Casey and McIlroy are in together with their confidence levels and match play pedigree, I expect them to come flying out of the blocks and win all 3 matches. Matt Fitzpatrick and Brian Harman are potential banana skins but I think the double looks rock solid at around 4.35.

Corales Puntacana Championship

I’ve not spent a great deal of time on this but I do like to follow players that have gone well in similar tournaments before when the PGA Tour leaves mainland U.S. The Web.com has several tournaments on their schedule down in both Central and South America. This week the location is the Dominican Republic which lies opposite Puerto Rico to the west and the course is stunning. It’s a cliff side resort course and it doesn’t look too dissimilar to the likes of Pebble Beach, Cypress Point and Kapalua. The course has been used twice before on the Web.com with Dominic Bozelli winning in 2016 and Nate Lashley in 2017. Neither man lines up this week however.

The course is a Tom Fazio design and being by the sea it is obviously very exposed. The fairways look wide enough and the rough isn’t overly penal either which suggests that when the wind blows the course can be testing enough. That looks further highlighted by a lack of green side bunkers and most of the greens appear to have an open route in allowing the more imaginative players to flight the ball down and run the ball in should the wind blow. There is a lot of sand in play off the tee however with many fairway bunkers and also sandy waste areas. The greens are sea paspalum as is often found in PGA Tournaments played in climates closer to the equator.

Graeme McDowell looks the absolute standout bet to me here this week and it’s no surprise that the early 33s disappeared fast. GMac should absolutely love conditions at Corales Golf Club with some of his finest results having been recorded on similar set-ups. He won his 2010 U.S. Open around Pebble Beach while he has also won the OHL Classic which played on sea paspalum down in Mexico on another resort course by the sea. He also has 4 top 10s around Fazio’s PGA National course and his home U.S. course, Lake Nona, is another Fazio design. The only thing that might go against him this week is the length of the course but at his best McDowell is miles better than the majority of these and if he plays well I’d expect him to push on over the weekend and show everyone that he really belongs in Austin this week.

I did look at a few of the Web.com players who are used to the climate and the sea paspalum but ultimately we don’t really know how a lot of them will fare here so instead I have gone with the historical class angle. We often see older PGA winners finding some form again at the alternate events, most recently Aaron Baddeley when winning the Barbasol Championship in 2016 and before that Geoff Ogilvy at the 2014 Barracuda Championship. Notice that they were both multiple PGA Tour winners and they are both Australian. Stuart Appleby is a little older than both at 46 years old but his last top 5 on the PGA Tour happened to arrive at an alternate event last July. So given he has such strong form at Kapalua, where he won three times in a row from 2004-2006, it seems fair to think his form could pick up again on another exposed resort course. Appleby was always a strong wind player and he had a fine Open Championship record. It could be complete coincidence but I’d wager it is more likely the spike in confidence that such players get from not having any of the current elite players in the field. That makes them believe they can win again and at odds of 200/1 I’m happy to believe too, at least until Thursday night!

Summary of Bets

WGC Match Play

Jon Rahm – 2pts ew @ 14/1

Paul Casey – 1pt ew @ 22/1

Kiradech Aphibarnrat – 0.5pt ew @ 80/1

Group Winner Double – McIlroy Group 6 + Casey Group 10 – 2pts @ 4.35


Graeme McDowell – 1pt ew @ 25/1 (1/4 odds 5 places)

Stuart Appleby – 0.5pt ew @ 200/1 (1/5 odds 7 places)



Weekly pts advised = 12pts





Valspar Championship and Hero Indian Open – Preview

Georgie boy’s win very nearly took the blog into profit for 2018 and if the European Tour picks were good, my WGC Mexico picks were equally as bad. To be fair to Dufner, Luiten and Chappell, none of them played terribly but scoring was too low for three players who are better suited to a proper championship layout. I’ll be keeping all three in mind for the likes of Augusta and Shinnecock though later in the year.

Erik Van Rooyen nearly gave us even more returns in Pretoria but again he disappointed on Sunday. One thing worth noting though was how brilliant he was tee-to-green for 63 holes before his putting woes seemed to frustrate him so much they effected the rest of his game. Every time the camera cut to him he seemed to either be in the centre of the fairway 40 yards in front of his playing partners or on the green with a 20ft putt. EVR is definitely worth following through 2018 on ball-striking courses.

Total 2018 pts advised = 92pts

Total 2018 pts returned = 89.94pts

ROI = -2.2%

Valspar Championship

Ran out of time for much in the way of course details this week. It’s tree-lined, narrow, about 7300 yards long and requires accuracy and a good putting touch. Bombers don’t usually carry much of an advantage and the course is quite testing, rewarding those who enjoy a more technical test. The greens are bermuda and the course is in Tampa Bay, Florida. Canadian Adam Hadwin defends and Jordan Spieth and Rory McIlroy head a relatively strong field. For those wishing to dig a little deeper, I’m sure I covered the Copperhead course in better detail last year.

Webb Simpson looks my idea of the best bet here this week and I’ve been looking for a chance to back him since his putting improved somewhere back to its best. When Webb first came on Tour he was a very strong putter with his long, anchored putter but the ban really ruined his game. This year however he sits 6th in strokes gained: putting and he has had two Top 5s this year already. They both came on bermuda greens (Sony Open and Honda Classic) and there is no question that he performs better away from poa annua as his 4 wins have been split between bermuda and bentgrass greens. So he will relish the return to the surface and to an event where he recorded 4 consecutive Top 20s between 2010 and 2013, the best of which being a runner-up finish in 2011. He then struggled for a few years but you usually have to putt well to compete on the Copperhead course so his resurgence with the short stick should see another contending performance. He also ranks 37th in strokes gained: approaches which is another key indicator for the course. So often we have seen a major winner triumph here given the championship nature of the course and a fairly high winning score (average of -11). Webb ticks that box with his 2012 U.S. Open win and a quick look at that leaderboard gave me extra confidence that he should play well this week. Five Valspar champions recorded a Top 20 around Olympic Club that week and both courses are visually similar and provide the same sort of test where birdies have to be earned. There is still some 45/1 around which I think looks a fantastic each way bet but he is more of a general 40/1 now.  That’s a bit of a shame but he is still very much worth a bet, especially with Sky Bet’s 8 places on offer this week.

Luke List may well not have recovered from his play-off defeat to Justin Thomas yet but there was so much to like about his game at the Honda. If he can take the positives out of that performance then he looks a very fair price at 55/1. The shot tracker visuals for List’s approaches were absolutely amazing such were the height of his irons and his 100% commitment to his slight draw. This meant he was taking the ball in well over water on several holes under huge amounts of pressure on the back 9. Yet he delivered with the large majority and this was a player in complete control of golf ball. With his power he won’t even need to get the driver out too much around Innisbrook and if he can stay in play off the tee then there is no reason that he won’t enjoy another good week. His form isn’t fantastic around Innisbrook but he was 26th last year and with way his irons are performing  he should certainly improve on that.

There isn’t really much else that I fancy here but I think Gary Woodland looks over priced considering he won just 4 starts ago. Woodland won this back in 2011 so we know it suits and the power packed American has been putting brilliantly of late, particularly on his favoured bermuda greens. There isn’t much more to say really, I expect that win to propel Woodland to the sort of level that everyone expected when he first appeared on Tour and that could well mean multiple wins in a year. I’m more than happy to back him at 40/1 while in form at a course where he has already won. (there might even still be some 50/1 around with a few of the smaller bookies


Hero Indian Open

Link to The Golf Family preview;


Summary of Bets

Valspar Championship

Webb Simpson – 1pt ew @ 40/1 (1/5 odds 8 places Sky Bet)

Luke List – 1pt ew @ 55/1 (1/5 odds 6 places)

Gary Woodland – 1pt ew @ 40/1 (1/5 odds 8 places Sky Bet)

Hero Indian Open

Scott Jamieson – 1pt ew @ 33/1 (1/5 odds 6 places)

Ashun Wu – 0.75pt ew @ 125/1 (1/5 odds 6 places)

Renato Paratore – 0.75pt ew @ 66/1 (1/5 odds 6 places)


Weekly pts advised = 11pts

Total 2018 pts advised = 103pts



WGC Mexico and Tshwane Open – Betting Preview

A disappointing Sunday meant there were no returns last week. Louis Oosthuizen and Joakim Lagergren were both perfectly placed just inside the Top 10 but both played very underwhelming rounds after I started to get a little bit excited late on Saturday evening.

That leaves the points as follows as we reach the first World Golf Championship of the year;

Total 2018 pts advised = 79pts

Total 2018 pts returned = 55.94pts

ROI = -29%

WGC Mexico

With T***p’s Doral course now firmly in the past, Mexico takes centre stage as Chapultepec GC hosts the WGC Mexico Championship for the second year. With any new course comes a lot of second guessing of how it will play and despite it’s narrow, tree-lined nature, Dustin Johnson came out on top of a leaderboard which included some of the longest drivers in the game. There is certainly an element of back to the drawing board about this year’s renewal then but at least we have 4 rounds of competitive golf to help us this year.

The 7330 yard, par 71 course was designed by two Scottish brothers, Willie and Alex Smith from Carnoustie, around the time when Scots were very much the talking point of US golf in the early 1900s. Donald Ross was at the fore front of that and he himself had links to Carnoustie with the first 3 club professionals at his East Lake design all hailing from the Angus town. Indeed the first of those was Alex Smith himself. This suggested to me last year that they probably shared a lot of Ross’ design philosophy and the course does look rather like some of his designs in the US like East Lake and Sedgefield.

So perhaps it was surprising to see so many big hitters on the leaderboard and only 2 of the top 10 ranked inside the top 10 for driving accuracy. In turn four of the five longest hitters of the week finished inside the top 10. Now with a WGC event it isn’t always too reliable to focus 100% on driving distance stats as they are often only measured on a couple of holes. But Johnson still managed to hit 72% (5th) of his greens in regulation despite only finding 58% of his fairways (49th).

This is an increasing trend that we are seeing on the PGA Tour, especially at championship courses where you expect there to be penalties for missing the fairway. The big hitters like DJ, Jason Day and Rahm are often letting rip across completely different driving lines in order to get the ball as close to the hole as possible. Their logic being that they can get the ball as close to the flag from 150 yards away in the rough as most of the shorter hitters can from 200 yards in the fairway. I don’t think one tournament is enough to claim that is how Chaplultepec might play going forward, especially as they may well have grown the rough a little this year, but I certainly don’t think it is going to be a course where the more strategic plotters hold any sort of advantage. Last year the greens ran at about 13″ on the stimpmeter and time and time again we see the best way of stopping the ball on slick greens is with as much loft as possible. The bulk of those on the leaderboard all have towering ball flights and that looks worth considering this week. It’s a shame Luke List isn’t in the field as the trajectory of his irons last week was a thing of beauty on Shot Tracker!

All of the top 10 ranked inside the top 33 for putting (75 in the field) with DJ himself ranking 5th. Ability to putt on fast poa annua greens will be crucial this week so those who put up good short stick numbers on the California swing may be worth looking at (Torrey Pines, Pebble Beach and Riviera all have poa annua greens). DJ had previously won at both Pebble and Riviera while his U.S. Open win was on the lightening quick poa annua greens of Oakmont.

Every year at the first WGC of the season despite everyone clambering to over analyse the course (see above!) the most important factor is current form. It’s still very early in the season and not everyone is fully wound up yet. Indeed 4 of the last 5 winners of this were winning for the second time in that calendar year and if we look more closely at last year’s leaderboard, 4 of the top 6 had already won in 2017.

In summary, it appears that while the big hitters may well have an advantage on the shortish course, there is more than one way to play Chapultepec. However it’s not a course where anyone will be expecting to find their game if they have been struggling in recent weeks. Above course suitability and any specific attributes, current form looks to be the main angle in to Mexico this week.



My main fancy in Mexico is a fairly speculative one on first look but yet given he won his last tournament, Joost Luiten perhaps shouldn’t be the outsider that the market makes him at 125/1*. Luiten was last seen getting the better of Ryder Cup player Chris Wood in Oman two weeks ago and unusually he putted very well. It is normally tee-to-green supremacy that we associate with Luiten and it was that part of his game that was on show at Chapultepec last year as he ranked 1st in drving accuracy and 1st in GIR. I’m hoping that his recent improvement with the putter combined with how well suited he was to the course, can bring about a contending performance. One of his main strengths is distance control and with the course being at altitude and featuring lots of elevation changes, committing to a number will be important.

He has already shown he can win in the hotter climates with titles in Oman and Malaysia and with 8 professional titles he is very capable in contention. Obviously this is a big step up but the odds of 125/1 take that into consideration and I like his chances of playing well and possibly grabbing a place. I’m also going to have a Top 20 bet at a very tempting 3/1 to cover him playing well but falling away in the heat of a battle against the world’s best.

It looks very likely that one of the top 5 or 6 in the market will win in Mexico this week but good luck trying to decide who might come out on stop and its worth considering that while it’s always nice to find a winner, (especially in a WGC) if we look at odds of around 66/1 and up then we are getting better odds for a place than we are for any of the front 5 in the market to win. So with that in mind I’m plumping for another couple of each way prices.

Jason Dufner was my main tip last year and I think he is worth persisting with here after a respectable 23rd where he just couldn’t make enough birdies and only three players made less bogeys. He is in decent form, 17-36-18-11 and hasn’t missed a cut since July. As ever his long game stats are strong and they look a good fit for the challenge at Chapultepec, he is doing everything well, but nothing outstanding at the moment. He is currently 40th in proximity to the hole and 18th in scoring relative to par from 200 yards while we know he can be deadly with his wedge game. With some players in this odds bracket you question whether they can win in an elite field like this but Dufner is a major winner with another 4 PGA Tour titles. He also had a solid record around the bombers track at Doral and one of the best things from a punting point of view is that he is equally at home on those types of courses as he is on a tighter, tree-lined track. Given we only really have one tournament to look at I think it might pay to side with an adaptable sort like Dufner and he goes in the staking plan at 80/1.

Kevin Chappell finished well down the field last year and I’m not too sure why. It seems like he should relish the test of distance control and accuracy tee-to-green. Chappell has a good record at Riviera and Augusta while his only PGA Tour win to date was at TPC San Antonio which is ball strikers course with a premium on accurate approach play. He has actually started the season a lot better than he normally does and he looks worth a go at a decent each way price. Last year he arrived with his 2017 results reading MC-48-75-MC whereas this year they read 20-8-31-6-21, with the 8th place finish coming on the poa annua greens at Pebble Beach. In two of those events he also ranked 1st in the all-round ranking which tells us his whole game is in good shape and he should be primed for an assault on a championship layout like this.


Tshwane Open

Link to The Golf Family preview


Summary of Bets

WGC Mexico

Joost Luiten – 1pt ew @ 125/1  100/1 (1/5 odds 6 places) and 2pts Top 20 @ 3/1

Jason Dufner – 0.75pt ew @ 80/1 (1/5 odds 6 places)

Kevin Chappell – 0.75pt ew @ 66/1 (1/5 odds 6 places)

Tshwane Open

George Coetzee – 2pts ew @ 12/1

Erik Van Rooyen – 1pt ew @ 28/1


Weekly pts advised = 7pts

Total 2018 pts advised =  87pts



Honda Classic and Qatar Masters – Betting Preview

A little short of time this week so no moaning about last week and fairly short previews.

2018 pts advised = 70pts

2018 pts returned = 55.94 pts

ROI = – 20%

Honda Classic

The PGA Tour heads east to PGA National at Palm Beach, Florida for what is one of the tougher stops on Tour. Pars are pretty good around a course where the wind usually blows and the greens are quite small and very well protected. We will be looking for links players in Europe this week and at a course where Ernie Els, Padraig Harrington, Adam Scott and Rickie Fowler have lifted the trophy, I’ll be looking at similar types here. Ability to hit greens in tough conditions and scramble well when you miss is the order of the day at PGA National. Having said that though Rickie Fowler putted his way to victory last year but a lot of those were completing his up and downs. Scrambling and bogey avoidance should be two good angles in while I’d be wanting evidence that a player can play in the wind and handle bermuda greens before I parted with my cash on the Honda Classic.

Louis Oosthuizen is getting advised this week largely on price but he also hit more greens than everyone else last year as he finished 21st. His first 2 appearances ended up in withdrawals and then he missed the cut on his 3rd so last year suggested he was finding his feet on a course that should suit. Despite the abundance of talent the 2010 Open champion possesses the fact he has never won on U.S. soil can make him difficult to back at his price some weeks on the PGA Tour. However that isn’t the case this week as the opening 80/1 looked a great each way price about him getting his 2018 season properly up and running with a contending performance. Unfortunately that 80/1 disappeared as I was writing this today but I still think the general 66/1 to 70/1 gives us some value if you look at the standard of player around the 50/1 mark this week.

My only other each way pick is another solid links player and after Graeme McDowell played so well last week at Riviera I think he is also a little over-priced at 66/1. McDowell has usually been a very good wind player through-out his career and there is no doubting that he prefers a difficult test of golf with his first win in the U.S. coming at the U.S. Open with a winning score of just level par. He was 12th in both GIR and scrambling last week so hopefully a switch to bermuda greens might bring about a change in fortunes on the greens for GMac. Another major-winner who is priced up alongside a few players who he is simply better than. So lets take advantage of that 66/1 as he surely shouldn’t be any bigger than 50/1 this week at a course where he has 4 Top 10s from his 8 appearances.

Kiradech Aphibarnrat makes a rare appearance in the U.S. this week having not played there since 2016. But he has made the Top 20 on 3 of his 14 appearances and he arrives confident and with his game in good shape. This test should suit him perfectly so I think the stand-out 5/1 on offer with Betfred for a Top 20 should be snapped up. Given several of those appearances in the U.S. were on courses that wouldn’t have suited him I think there is probably a little wiggle room down to 4/1 but no probably no lower than that.


Qatar Masters

Link to The Golf Family preview;


Summary of Bets

Honda Classic

Louis Oosthuizen – 1pt ew @ 66/1

Graeme McDowell – 1pt ew @ 66/1

Kiradech Aphibarnrat – 1pt Top 20 @ 5/1 (Betfred)

Qatar Masters

Alexander Bjork – 1pt ew @ 40/1 (1/5 odds 6 places)

Joakim Lagergren – 0.5pt ew @ 100/1 (1/5 odds 6 places)

Thomas Bjork – 1pt Top 20 @ 6/1


Weekly pts advised = 9pts

Total 2018 pts advised = 79pts



Genesis Open and NBO Oman Open – Betting Preview

We came agonisingly close to the double this week as Mickelson surged through the back 9 on Sunday night after Aphibarnrat obliged earlier in the morning in Australia. Just like 2 years ago when Vaughan Taylor beat Mickelson in to 2nd place, inspired outsider Ted Potter Jnr played a superb round alongside Dustin Johnson to record one of the most remarkable wins of the season so far. I can’t complain though after Aphibarnrat somehow managed to land the World Super 6s event after seemingly being down and out about  six times over the course of the weekend. His class eventually shone through however as he made the up and downs and putts when it mattered as his opponents struggled with their own clutch putting.

Aaron Wise also grabbed a top 20 in California to make it a profitable week for the blog with some 41 pts returned.

Total 2018 pts advised = 59

Total 2018 pts returned = 55.94

ROI = -5%

Genesis Open

The PGA Tour remains in California this week to complete its west coast swing and we’re in L.A. for the glamour that Riviera Golf Club brings. Golf fans are truly spoilt at this time of year with the likes of Torrey Pines, Pebble Beach and now Riviera.

Riviera is a lush green course with sprawling up and down fairways running through parkland and huge elevation changes between tee and green. Despite there usually being plenty of thick kikuyu rough, driving accuracy isn’t as important as it once was. The poa annua greens are slick and tricky, again surrounded by thick rough or run-offs. The bigger hitters have enjoyed an advantage in recent years as they can attack many of the flags with a wedge or a 9-iron. The trees can certainly block players out from the green but many of the par 4s have a side where it is ok to miss and you will see a lot of the bombers hit their slinging draws or power fades around the subtle dog-legs to give them the preferred angle in. While you don’t absolutely have to be long at Riviera, if you aren’t, you need to be accurate through the bag with your irons and very capable around the greens. Last week’s scrambling stats are worth a look at given the very defined rough around the small greens at Pebble Beach. The challenge will be similar this week again chipping onto slick, sloping, poa annua greens.

It’s a course that has very strong links with both Augusta and Glen Abbey (host of the RBC Canadian Open) and that is a route I have gone down the last few years. It found me Chez Reavie at 250/1 in 2016 who would go on to finish one shot out of the places in 7th. I had been hoping for a decent price on him this week but he is well and truly exposed now after consecutive 2nd places. Both courses are not only visually similar but require much the same skill-set and there are players that thrive on all three. Distance off the tee, GIR and scrambling  are probably the most crucial stats to look at this week.

RBC Canadian Open - Final Round

I’m going down the value route this week with a couple of very big prices. Jonny Vegas has won the last two Canadian Opens at Glen Abbey and that combined with his 15th here last year makes him very interesting. Vegas is the sort of player who should thrive at Riviera with his length off the tee, high ball flight and a great chipping touch around the greens. He simply looks massively over priced here after an over reaction to a missed cut at Torrey Pines. Prior to that he was 11th at the CareerBuilder and 7th at the Tournament of Champions. Vegas isn’t always the most accurate of drivers so Torrey Pines doesn’t really suit his game off the tee. As we mentioned Riviera is more accommodating with missed fairways so I’m going to focus on his previous tournaments, his solid finish to the 2017 season and the fact he shot 3 rounds in the 60s here last year. Looks a great each way price at 125/1


Charley Hoffman goes well on all of these courses and is another player who the bookies have very quickly forgotten about. For a period in 2017 Hoffmann was the form player on Tour outside the bigger names and while he hasn’t been at his best so far in 2017 he shouldn’t be dismissed at tracks like Riviera. He lost in a play-off last summer at Glen Abbey and looked like he might win the Masters for a couple of days. In fact his Augusta record in general is very good as he has made the top 30 in all four appearances. Hoffman also has some solid form in the bank at at Riviera having finished 4th last year and he has made 9 of his 11 cuts at the venue.

So far this year he ranks 35th in strokes gained: off the tee and 65th in strokes gained: approaches to the green while he has only missed one of his last 22 cuts. He withdrew last week at Pebble but I’m hoping it was just precautionary and if he is fit then 100/1 is huge. I really like the price but given he might not be fully fit I will reduce stakes slightly to 0.75pts ew.

Luke List has the game for Riviera being one of the biggest hitters on Tour but he also has an excellent touch around the greens. It’s his iron play that can often let him down but he has been playing very well lately with a 12th at Torrey Pines and a 26th in Phoenix. List currently sits 9th in strokes gained: off the tee and in those last two events he ranked 6th and 7th in GIR. List has played Riviera twice with mixed results, he missed the cut last year while in dire form but was 20th the year before on his debut. With his tee-to-green game in fine fettle this looks a great course for him where putting isn’t usually as important as hitting greens.

Kevin Chappell’s price has gone a little this week but as regular backer of his I do like his chances this week. His driver has been on fire this year so far and if he makes a good start I may look to get him onside in-play. If Mickelson wins you might not hear from me for a while but at 22/1 he is a little easier to overlook this week.

NBO Oman Open

Link to The Golf Family preview


Summary of Bets

Genesis Open

Jonny Vegas – 1pt ew @ 125/1 (1/5 odds 7 places Skybet and others)

Charley Hoffman – 0.75pt ew @ 100/1 (1/4 odds 5 places Bet365)

Luke List – 0.75pt ew @ 125/1 (1/5 odds 7 places Skybet and others)

NBO Oman Open

Alexander Bjork – 1.25pt ew @ 50/1 (1/5 odds 6 places)

Pablo Larrazabal – 1.25pt ew @ 40/1 (1/5 odds 6 places)

David Drysdale – 1pt Top 20 @ 9/1


Weekly pts advised = 11pts

Total 2018 pts advised = 70pts


AT & T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and World Super 6 – Betting Preview

Before the final round on Sunday on the PGA Tour I said to myself anyone but Woodland or Reavie. Reavie is one of my regular plays and he has been trending towards a win for some time while Woodland was my main tip last week and has been one of the Tour’s best performers without a win over the last couple of years. I suppose I should be taking confidence from it as it shows I’m doing something right but with only small returns again this week it isn’t easy to be so pragmatic! Hadley played well and nabbed us some diluted returns at 100/1 but it was a losing week on the whole.

This week the Tour is back on the west coast for the Pebble Beach Pro-Am event while the European Tour heads down under for the rather gimmicky World Super 6s event.

2018 pts advised = 47.50pts

2018 pts returned = 14.25pts


AT & T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

The PGA Tour is back in California this week for it’s first pro-am event of the year. The tournament takes place across 3 different courses in the area, Spyglass Hill, Monterey Peninsula and the iconic Pebble Beach Links. While all three are located in the same area, their characteristics do differ sligthly but the focus should be on Pebble where those making the cut will play the final round. It is an open, links style course with its main defence being its small poa annua greens which can be hard to hit and difficult to putt on for those who aren’t accomplished on the surface. If the wind doesn’t blow then scoring can be fairly easy with the course set up to allow amateurs to enjoy their week. It’s also never as hard and fast in February as we see when hosting the U.S. Open in June so there is a chance to be aggressive with the irons when the wind doesn’t blow.


All three courses are relatively short at under 7000 yards and driving accuracy doesn’t usually matter too much in this event with most of the rough minimal. While the other two courses have bigger greens the focus is still on hitting them with Spyglass featuring several elevation changes, making distance control difficult. It is also tree-lined with any wind a little harder to judge. Monterey is usually the easiest of the three courses so players will need their putter to perform whichever day they tee it up there.

Unlike when the U.S. Open pitches up at Pebble Beach, the low scoring nature of a pro-am event means you want to side with a player capable of making lots of birdies. The winners regularly hit plenty of greens but if the wind blows then the small greens will be missed on Sunday making scrambling vital. Those are the 3 main attributes to focus on this week in addition to a fondness for poa annua greens.


Two years ago Phil Mickelson should really have won this event as he failed to make a straight-forward up and down at the 18th to force a play-off with Vaughan Taylor who had holed everything down his back 9. I was on Phil that year and after what he showed over the weekend at Scottsdale, he looks to be close to finally getting the next W which he has been chasing since lifting the Claret Jug in 2013. It is madness to think that a player of Mickelson’s ability hasn’t won in 4 1/2 years but it speaks volumes to the strength of the PGA Tour in recent times. Despite him being 47 now it’s certainly not age that is holding him back as he is still long off the tee and there is no hesitancy whatsoever on the greens. He just hasn’t been playing well enough on a consistent basis. But he has been quoted as saying he has found something with the driver this season (I know, we have been there before!) and he hit more fairways than he missed in Phoenix which is usually about as good as it gets with Mickelson. He also ranked 1st in scrambling and 9th in putting which are always crucial  in this event with easy pin locations yet often strong winds at Pebble Beach resulting in missed greens.

I’m sure he will win again on Tour and if he does it is likely to be at one of his favourite courses. Phil is a 4 time winner around Pebble Beach and looks primed to go close again. The big five in the market means there are some fancy each way prices around for some very good players. Rather than try and pick between DJ and Spieth I have decided to avoid all the favourites.


I can’t seem to get away from Branden Grace this week despite this being his debut at Pebble Beach. Everything else looks to be in his favour. Grace’s record on U.S. championship courses with poa annua greens over the last two or three years is practically second to none. Grace finished 4th at Chambers Bay, 3rd at Whistling Straits, 5th at Oakmont and 4th at Baltusrol. The first two of those also being exposed links courses just like Pebble Beach. Grace has won the European Tour equivalent event, the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, which is also a pro-am format played across 3 different courses. Grace shot an all-time major record with his 62 around Birkdale last July. Five of the last six winners at Royal Birkdale have won around Pebble Beach and of the four major tournaments I listed above where Grace shone, three of those winners are also winners at Pebble Beach. One further link to suggest suitability is the location of his solo PGA Tour win, Harbour Town. It is also a coastal course with small greens just like Pebble and there are plenty of dual winners over the years but most recently Brandt Snedeker and Graeme Mcdowell have won at both venues.

The course looks absolutely ideal for him and I think he too looks a great each way price given his pedigree in similar conditions.

Matt Kuchar should be respected this week but rather than take a 3rd player from the front of the market I’m going to add an outsider for a small each way bet and also Top 20. PGA Tour rookie Aaron Wise is a player with a very good reputation and big things are expected from him this year after his first professional win on the Web.com Tour last year. Wise is an Oregon native so is comfortable on the west coast and he has already won on poa annua greens when he took the NCAA title in 2016 in his home state at Eugene Country Club. It has a been a fairly slow start to his season having missed 4 of his 8 cuts but he turned 3 of the other 4 into Top 25s. He sits 18th over the last 3 months in birdie average so I think a low scoring event on the west coast could be the ideal time to get behind this deadly putter. We can take advantage of his low profile 2018 by getting very juicy odds of 200/1.

World Super 6s

Link below to The Golf Family preview


Summary of Bets

Pebble Beach

Phil Mickelson – 1pts ew @ 33/1 (1/4 odds 5 places general)

Branden Grace – 1pt ew @ 40/1 (1/5 odds 7 places Coral, Boylesports)

Aaron Wise – 0.25 pt ew @ 200/1 (1/5 odds 7 places) & 1pt Top 20 @ 13/2

World Super 6s

Kiradech Aphibarnrat – 0.75pt ew @ 25/1

Jason Scrivener – 0.75pt ew @ 25/1

Alejandro Canizares – 0.5pt ew @ 50/1

Connor Syme – 0.5pt ew @ 150/1 (all 1/4 odds 4 places) and 1pt To Qualify for knockout  @ 13/2 (Skybet)


Weekly pts advised = 11.5pts

2018 pts advised = 59pts



Phoenix Open and Maybank Championship – Betting Preview

We got off the mark last week as Tyrrell Hatton flew through the field on Sunday to land solo 3rd. It promised to be even better than that for a brief spell as he had a 10ft putt to get to -21 at the driveable Par 4 17th. He missed that and then found water on 18 to leave himself 2 shots shy but it was another brilliant desert performance and he rewarded the faith shown in him. Hatton’s consistent play in both desert and links conditions is second to none over the last 18 months and this has to be factored in when assessing his price going forward.

Over in California, Woodland was perfectly placed for a Sunday assault as he was 5th and just 3 shots back. The wind did for him again though just like 2015 and he really doesn’t look to be a great wind player at all. There is no doubt that he loves Torrey Pines South course as his Saturday 66 testified but he doesn’t seem to handle even one round of wind.

This week the PGA Tour moves inland to the desert and the Phoenix Open while the European Tour has a little break from its Middle East swing and heads down to Malaysia for the Maybank Championship.

Total 2018 pts advised = 35.5pts

Total 2018 returns = 9pts

Phoenix Open

In the normally more reserved sport of golf, TPC Scottsdale is the one course that comes closest to typifying U.S. Sports. The course is somewhat famous in the game for it’s stadium seating around the par 3 16th hole and it helps create an atmosphere unlike any seen in regular stroke-play events. That’s not to do the course an injustice however as it is a very serious layout, with pristine conditions and the Phoenix Open usually throws up a classy winner.

Hideki Matsuyama has won the last two events and never finished outside the Top 4. To be honest that tells us everything you need to know about the course. The fairways are wide enough and it pays to have some length off the tee. The greens are on the larger side and in order to fire at the flags, a degree of loft will be required and the control that the fairway allows is also beneficial. TPC Scottsdale is a ball-strikers dream and rewards accurate, aggressive iron play perhaps more than any course I can think of. The greens themselves don’t usually require any brilliance and it is usually all about the law of averages and having more putts inside 15ft than the rest of the field. That is something Matsuyama regularly does when his mid-irons are dialled in and he is as ruthless as anyone on Tour from between 150 and 200 yards out.

With a 12th place finish last week where the putter was behaving, Matsuyama is almost certainly the player to beat and at odds of 10/1 I wouldn’t put anyone off. However with Spieth,  Fowler and Thomas all alongside him in the betting it doesn’t look like a week for a big play on any of the favourites. Instead I’m happy to play some of the healthy each way prices that the strong head of the market has given us.


Kevin Chappell’s long game was sublime last time out at the CareerBuilder and it was his horrible putting that stopped him from winning. He still managed 6th place though and with the greens being a bit of an equaliser here at Scottsdale I think this pure ball-striker looks to have a great chance. His form at the course isn’t fantastic to date but I’m not really sure why. He plays well in desert conditions and this tee-to-green test should be just about perfect for him on paper. Chappell has three missed cuts from 6 appearances and hasn’t beaten 24th yet but there were positives from that best finish in 2013. He fired opening and closing 66s and there were also some good rounds two years later in 2015 where he shot Friday and Saturday 65s to sit in the top 10 going in to Sunday. That’s enough to confirm to me that he can play this course and if we delve a little further into his finishes we see that they were more about his form at the time. Chappell normally takes a little while to get going in the New Year and that 24th finish came on his only effort in Phoenix where he was arriving off a Top 10 already that calendar year. On a ball-strikers course sometimes you just have to pick ball-strikers and that’s exactly what Chappell is, currently ranking 6th in strokes gained: tee to green. The 66/1 looks a big each way price.


Keegan Bradley is another tee-to-green machine and you could make a perfectly good case for him being the most consistently long and accurate driver of the ball in world golf. His approach play isn’t too shabby either and he currently ranks 7th for strokes gained: tee to green. Bradley is a 3 time winner on Tour and also a major winner so given he finished 6th last week and has four top 25s in Phoenix, I’m surprised that we can get 66/1 about him. He has suffered considerably since the anchored putter ban but over the last year or so there have been signs that he is finding a way to get competitive again. We shouldn’t forget that when you strike the ball as well as he does, an average putting week is often all he needs to contend. That will be even more prevalent at TPC Scottsdale and he looks to have a great chance here this week.

I was going to leave it at two bets here this week but then I noticed Chesson Hadley’s price. I watched him closely during the fall series and his form was very good without getting over the line for the win. He has kept that going in 2018 although he has done so a little under the radar as the world’s best players have ousted him from the spotlight. Hadley is currently 10th in strokes gained: tee to green, 6th in strokes gained: approach to green and 29th in strokes gained: putting. All those combined suggest he is on the verge of grabbing his 2nd PGA Tour title. His form at Scottsdale isn’t great but he has taken his game to a new level of consistency recently and he looks a great price at 100/1.

Maybank Championship

Link to The Golf Family preview below;


Summary of Bets

Phoenix Open

Kevin Chappell – 1pt ew @ 66/1 (1/4 odds 5 places general)

Keegan Bradley – 1pt ew @ 66/1 (1/4 odds 5 places general)

Chesson Hadley – 0.5pt ew @ 100/1 (1/5 odds 6 places several)

Maybank Championship

Alex Levy – 2pt ew @ 16/1 (1/4 odds 5 places Ladbrokes)

Jason Scrivener – 0.75pts ew @ 70/1 (1/5 odds 6 places Boylesports)

David Horsey – 0.75 pts ew @ 70/1 (1/5 odds 6 places Skybet)

Weekly pts advised = 12pts

Total pts advised = 47.5pts