WGC Dell Technologies Match Play and Hero Indian Open – Betting Preview

Both Jazz and Kieffer returned the each way money last week but things could have been even better as they were poised in 3rd place entering the final round. Hend holed two monster putts on his front 9 though and after a couple of other huge tree breaks it never really looked like anything but his day.

On the PGA Tour all the picks did terribly and missed the cut so we won’t dwell on that…..

This week we have 3 events to look at where I’ve got at least one bet in each, the WGC Match Play, Hero Indian Open and the PGA Tour alternate event in the Dominican.

2019 pts advised = 132

2019 pts returned = 142.75

ROI =8.14%


WGC Match Play

The WGC Match Play is settled into the new format now and that’s what 64 of the world’s best face again at Austin Country Club in Texas. They have been drawn into 16 groups of 4 with only the group winners advancing to the last 16 knockout stages over the weekend. They will each play one match a day from Wednesday to Friday so please note the early start this week. The course was designed by Pete Dye and the par 72 course sits at 7169 yards and is rather spectacular to the eye. It is a parkland course set along sprawling hills giving rise to elevation changes and undulating fairways very akin to some British links courses. There are also a lot of deep, menacing bunkers that give it a further links appearance. There are some driveable par 4s as well as 4 relatively short par 5s.

Whenever a course has elevation changes then distance control becomes absolutely paramount. As we have come to expect from Pete Dye designs (Sawgrass, RBC Heritage, Whistling Straits, PGA West), the greens are relatively small and they are undulating and tiered. Accurate approach shots will be required to find the correct portion of the green to allow a makeable birdie putt. But there will be many flags that simply have to be avoided with run-offs and green side bunkers aplenty. There are several examples of very aggressive players who play well in match play but similarly steady players that keep mistakes to a minimum can also thrive in the format. Just like stroke-play there are often different ways to succeed on a course but from what we have seen in the three editions in Austin so far, aggression and power are very advantageous indeed.

If we look at the three winners to date in Austin then something very obvious stands out (Bubba, DJ and Day). They are all elite bombers who were enjoying very good seasons and had all won that year already. They had all won majors and multiple WGC events. Despite the somewhat fortuitous nature of match play golf none of the winners were even close to a surprise. The new format may also have something to do with that but I’m not looking too far down the market for my main bets and I’m keeping with the same profile that has succeeded in the previous 3 events.

Genesis Open - Round Three

I suppose the obvious place to start would be with the two favourites Rory McIlroy and Dustin Johnson. Two of the most powerful players on Tour, both have won this year, both are in great form and both have won this title before. Yet despite my wish to stay at the head of the market I don’t think I quite want to be backing them at just 10/1 in this type of event where 4 of your best rounds guarantees nothing. You would also surely get a better price just backing him to win each match and then reloading the returns (not that simple as 3 group wins not required but hey ho). It isn’t quite the crap shoot some will suggest but a difficult group and one poor round can still send you home on Friday. Instead I’m going for the next player in “strokes gained: total” and that is Justin Thomas at a more appealing 20.0 win only on the exchange. He doesn’t quite have that 2019 win but he fits the profile perfectly apart from that. He isn’t having his best season with the driver, only ranking 38th in strokes gained: off the tee, but that has been met with yet further improvement in his iron game as he currently sits 4th on Tour in strokes gained: approaches. Thomas also ranks 10th in scrambling and 1st in par 5 scoring. That is a very strong combination if he brings his A game to Austin this week. In his early career he didn’t particularly stand out as someone who thrived in match play but we have to re-evaluate that given the heights he hit in 2018. Not only did he make the semi-finals here, losing only to the winner, but he refused to wilt in Paris at the Ryder Cup. While his team-mates were spraying the ball everywhere at Le Golf National, Thomas stood up and showed how adaptable he has become by taking 4pts from 5. I think the new Thomas that we have seen over the last 2 years is one that will be a formidable match play opponent for years to come and he looks to have a great chance of grabbing his second WGC this week.

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Instead of having a few big each way picks I’m having another win only from the top in the shape of big Jon Rahm. His form has taken a huge upturn in the last month having started 2019 rather slowly. He does have a win this season but just not a PGA Tour recognised event despite the Hero World Challenge being an elite field. Rahm also showed his suitability to the course on his debut when he marched to the final only to find DJ just too good. I imagine expectations would have been very high last year for the cocky Spaniard so a group stage exit might have given him a reminder that you can’t get everything your own way in Match Play. His numbers have also been improving and he ranks 2nd in strokes gained: off the tee which is crucial. If he brings the approach game that we saw at Sawgrass then I’d expect another strong showing like 2017.

It is surely a matter of time before he starts winning big titles and these days the ideal preparation for winning a major seems to be winning a WGC. With a reasonable group he should make it through to the knockout stage and nobody in the field would relish playing him head to head this week. Both Rahm and Thomas are in the tough half of the draw and on paper would face DJ and Rory in the semi finals respectively. But there will be chances to hedge if we make it that far and I’d give them a good shot at winning those matches anyway.

Backing outsiders in this can very quickly go wrong and Abraham Ancer might just lose his first match to Paul Casey to all but lose the bet. But at odds of 125/1 with 8 places he surely makes the last 8 more than just once in 26 attempts from this group. Therefore I think we are getting a very solid each way price but I also think he will be suited to a match play event in Texas. You don’t win an Australian Open without having both a strong short game and ability to play in the wind. Both those attributes will help him this week and if he can avoid defeat to Casey he might just play his way into this Tournament. Ancer is a long enough driver of the ball but he is also accurate and ranks 23rd in strokes gained: off the tee. That is always valuable at Austin Country Club and he was last seen finishing 12th on another Dye course at Sawgrass. He ranks 29th in scrambling and 44th in strokes gained: approaches for the season. He doesn’t have much match play experience of any note but that hasn’t stopped a few debutants running deep in this event before. Worth a little go in the hope Casey maybe isn’t fully wound up on Wednesday after his Valspar win on Sunday.

Benny An was on my short list for this but was then given a pretty awful draw alongside both Tommy Fleetwood and Louis Oosthuizen. However the way An has been playing, particularly scrambling, I think he maybe still has a chance. Fleetwood has been putting probably as poorly as An himself so that match will be interesting on the greens. Oosthuizen finished runner-up to Casey at the weekend but he only hit 6 of his greens in regulation on Sunday and he wasn’t much better through the week. Oosty will have to improve his approach play if he wants to get out of a group that features 3  tee-to-green machines. If Benny can hole a few putts (I know, fat chance of that!) then I think he can get more competitive than his price suggests. He sits 11th in strokes gained: off the tee, 50th in approaches and he is 2nd around the green. Small stakes each way at 100/1 and cross our fingers!


Hero Indian Open

The DLF Golf and Country Club in Delhi is probably about as quirky and trappy a course as we will see in professional golf and therefore punters have learned it’s not an event to waste that much time on. The propensity for event ruining bad bounces off a rock means that fortune certainly plays its part more than it does at other events. Although that shouldn’t detract too much from the two very deserving winners the course has thrown up.

With all this in mind then the best angle in is probably to play a couple of bigger prices. However there aren’t too many that I like the look of so instead I’ve decided to go with two in form players that owe me nothing after returning the place money last week. Both Sharma and SSP arrived in decent form so with good GIR numbers last week, Jazz Janewattananond and Max Kieffer appeal again. They are both fairly horrible prices at first look, especially for 2 players chasing their first ET win. But we have to be flexible on a week like this where the field strength isn’t great and Jorge Campillo is among the favourites. If I wasn’t playing with last week’s profit I could maybe pass but both should enjoy this test and they showed that last week with Kieffer ranking 2nd in GIR and Jazz 1st in driving accuracy. Jazz actually also came 3rd for putting despite missing practically everything on Sunday. His whole game really is in great shape and given he didn’t look like he was scared to win I make him the man to beat this week. Take Kieffer as a solid each way back-up plan again.


Corales Puntacana Championship

Just the one pick here that interests me in the alternative event and that is Curtis Luck. The event the last couple of years has turned into somewhat of a short game battle and few in the field are better equipped than the young Aussie. He isn’t the best ball-striker in this field by any stretch but with wide open fairways and big, straight-forward paspalum greens, the majority of the field will be finding a high number of greens. He finished 13th last week at the Valspar which was his best finish of the season. He was 3rd in putting and 12th for scrambling. If we see that level of short game again then he should relish this course.


Summary of bets

WGC Match Play

Justin Thomas – 2.5pts win @ 20.0 on Exchange (anything down to 17.0 looks fair)

Jon Rahm – 2pts win @ 20.0 on Exchange (again anything down to 17.0 fine)

Abraham Ancer – 0.75pt ew @ 125/1 (1/5 odds 8 places Betfair/Paddy Power)

Benny An – 0.5pts ew @ 100/1 (1/5 odds 8 places)

Hero Indian Open

Jazz Janewattananond- 1.5pt ew @ 16/1

Max Kieffer – 1pt ew @ 22/1 (both 1/5 odds 7 places)

Corales Puntacana

Curtis Luck – 1pt ew @ 50/1 (1/5 odds 7 places)

 

Weekly points advised = 14pts

 

@theGreek82

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WGC Match Play – Betting preview

Apologies to any regular readers as Cheltenham took up most of my time last week so I didn’t get a chance to have a look too closely at the golf. I did manage to watch the final round though and McIlroy was extremely impressive. I don’t think I’ve ever seen him putt that well and it couldn’t have come at a better time for him with just over 2 weeks to go before the Masters. It really couldn’t be set up any better with the majority of the game’s best players all in fine form. Before then we still have the 2nd WGC of the season with the match play event in Texas

2018 pts advised = 103pts

2018 pts returned = 92.69pts

ROI = -10%


WGC Match Play

The WGC Match Play is back at Austin Country Club for a third year and we are now into the fourth edition of the round-robin group format. Some players have enjoyed the move away from straight knockout while others aren’t quite as taken and again there are a few of the world’s best missing here; Rose, Fowler, Koepka and Stenson all sit out of a tournament that still hosts 64 of the world’s top ranked 70 players. Unfortunately that still means no Tiger who has only managed to get to no. 105 despite his recent form in elite fields.

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The course was designed by Pete Dye and the par 72 course sits at 7169 yards while being rather spectacular to the eye. It is a parkland course set along sprawling hills giving rise to some elevation changes and undulating fairways very akin to some British links courses. There are also a lot of deep, menacing bunkers that give it a further links appearance. While the fairways appear to be of average width they will certainly not feel that way standing on the tee. There are many hidden tee shots where the players are forced to carry valleys or shape the ball around trees. The numerous dog legs and elevation changes will also bring about some blind approaches and it appears that accuracy will be important this week with the irons. Whenever a course has elevation changes then distance control becomes absolutely paramount. As we have come to expect from Pete Dye designs (Sawgrass, RBC Heritage, Whistling Straits, PGA West), the greens are relatively small and they are undulating and tiered. Accurate approach shots will be required to find the correct portion of the green to allow a makeable birdie putt. But there will be many flags that simply have to be avoided with run-offs and green side bunkers aplenty. There are several examples of very aggressive players who play well in match play but similarly steady players that keep mistakes to a minimum can also thrive in the format.  The greens are TifEagle bermuda which was also in use last week at Bay Hill.

Just like stroke-play there are often different ways to succeed on a course but from what we have seen in the two editions in Austin so far, aggression and power are very advantageous indeed. When we look at the 2 winners to date at Austin Country Club (Dustin Johnson and Jason Day) there are a few things that jump out. Firstly they are two of the best players in the world, who were both on extremely hot winning runs at the time, each playing the best golf of their career. Secondly, they are two of the biggest hitters in the game and they used that length to dominate their matches on the relatively short course, attacking the flags and driving the greens wherever possible. Thirdly, they both had plenty of form on Pete Dye courses, particularly Whistling Straits where Day won his PGA and DJ should have won his in 2010. Johnson had also already won around Dye’s Crooked Stick course in 2016 while Day would go on to win the Players Championship at Sawgrass just 2 months later.

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It is that profile of the two winners that led me to my main bet this week and that is Jon Rahm. I’d expect him to be popular this week so I’ve tried to post this a little earlier than usual to try to get a good price but it’s also worth noting that it is a Wednesday start this week in Texas. Rahm is another powerhouse off the tee and he is probably the only player that can compete with DJ and McIlroy in terms of power and “strokes gained: off the tee”. Rahm has already won this year in February but perhaps the most interesting thing about that win with regards to this week is where he got his win. It was at the Careerbuilder Challenge which involves two rounds at Pete Dye’s PGA West Course and also involves bermuda greens. Rahm’s form has tailed off a little since that win but he has still finished inside the top 30 on all 4 starts. There has been quite a bit of discussion about Rahm already this week as he apparently hit a 59 in a practice round at Austin Country Club on Monday (Note: sounds like it wasn’t actually at Austin CC after all). We also know he can do that in competition as he made the final last year only to lose 1 up to a red-hot Dustin Johnson. He has shown already in his short career that he thrives on the same sort of courses as both Johnson and Day so he looks the absolute standout candidate to follow them as winners of the WGC Match Play. With a win this calendar year and already having won on a Dye design he is also a great trends pick and looks like the best bet in Texas this week. But an extra little sweetener is that the form of those at the head of the market has resulted in recency bias probably giving us a price that is perhaps two or three ticks bigger than it should be. Obviously anything can happen in match play but in recent times this event has gone to one of the very best players so let’s have a confident each way bet on the world number 3 at 14/1.

I didn’t want to get too involved in this prior to the draw but there are two others that I quite like and I’m going to have a small bet on them both and hope they are all in different groups. As annoying as Paul Casey is, a confident PC in a match play tournament is a massive threat and he will be absolutely buzzing coming into this event after finally getting his 2nd PGA Tour win. We know he won’t be in the slightest bit phased by taking on the big names here and with his match play pedigree he could go deep in this tournament. Last year he won all three of his group games but lost to an inspired Tanihara in the first knockout match. Given how cocky Casey is you wonder whether he gave Tanihara the respect he deserved last year and I don’t think we will see him make the same mistake again this year. Casey is a two-time runner-up in this event while he has also won the European Tour’s Volvo Match Play event. He also has a very decent Ryder Cup record having won 56% of his available points. He doesn’t have a win around a Pete Dye course but he has been runner-up at both Crooked Stick and TPC River HIghlands. Worth a nice back up ew bet at 22/1.

Kiradech Aphibarnrat owes us nothing after winning the Perth Super 6s in February but he is playing some of the best golf of his career right now. He has won again since then when playing back on the Asia Tour and he also recorded his best WGC finish to date in Mexico where he was T5th. With all his travelling I’m not too worried about his missed cut at Bay Hill last week and he will be fully prepared having made the shorter journey from Florida. With two match play titles already we know he enjoys the format where he can be his ultra aggressive self knowing that he has the short game to back it up should he find trouble. That can be demoralising for opponents in the match play format and two years ago the only game he didn’t win in the group stages was against DJ, only exiting after a further play-off hole against the world no. 1. In most editions of this event we see a slightly left-field European Tour player make good progress and with the way Kiradech is playing that could easily be him this week. (Aphibarnrat has now been drawn in the same group as Jon Rahm, typical!! Anyway for those who don’t think it makes any sense backing them both just leave Aphi out or lower the stakes even more, I’ve stupidly backed them both already)

Adding one more Group stage bet for a further interest. With the form that Casey and McIlroy are in together with their confidence levels and match play pedigree, I expect them to come flying out of the blocks and win all 3 matches. Matt Fitzpatrick and Brian Harman are potential banana skins but I think the double looks rock solid at around 4.35.


Corales Puntacana Championship

I’ve not spent a great deal of time on this but I do like to follow players that have gone well in similar tournaments before when the PGA Tour leaves mainland U.S. The Web.com has several tournaments on their schedule down in both Central and South America. This week the location is the Dominican Republic which lies opposite Puerto Rico to the west and the course is stunning. It’s a cliff side resort course and it doesn’t look too dissimilar to the likes of Pebble Beach, Cypress Point and Kapalua. The course has been used twice before on the Web.com with Dominic Bozelli winning in 2016 and Nate Lashley in 2017. Neither man lines up this week however.

The course is a Tom Fazio design and being by the sea it is obviously very exposed. The fairways look wide enough and the rough isn’t overly penal either which suggests that when the wind blows the course can be testing enough. That looks further highlighted by a lack of green side bunkers and most of the greens appear to have an open route in allowing the more imaginative players to flight the ball down and run the ball in should the wind blow. There is a lot of sand in play off the tee however with many fairway bunkers and also sandy waste areas. The greens are sea paspalum as is often found in PGA Tournaments played in climates closer to the equator.

Graeme McDowell looks the absolute standout bet to me here this week and it’s no surprise that the early 33s disappeared fast. GMac should absolutely love conditions at Corales Golf Club with some of his finest results having been recorded on similar set-ups. He won his 2010 U.S. Open around Pebble Beach while he has also won the OHL Classic which played on sea paspalum down in Mexico on another resort course by the sea. He also has 4 top 10s around Fazio’s PGA National course and his home U.S. course, Lake Nona, is another Fazio design. The only thing that might go against him this week is the length of the course but at his best McDowell is miles better than the majority of these and if he plays well I’d expect him to push on over the weekend and show everyone that he really belongs in Austin this week.

I did look at a few of the Web.com players who are used to the climate and the sea paspalum but ultimately we don’t really know how a lot of them will fare here so instead I have gone with the historical class angle. We often see older PGA winners finding some form again at the alternate events, most recently Aaron Baddeley when winning the Barbasol Championship in 2016 and before that Geoff Ogilvy at the 2014 Barracuda Championship. Notice that they were both multiple PGA Tour winners and they are both Australian. Stuart Appleby is a little older than both at 46 years old but his last top 5 on the PGA Tour happened to arrive at an alternate event last July. So given he has such strong form at Kapalua, where he won three times in a row from 2004-2006, it seems fair to think his form could pick up again on another exposed resort course. Appleby was always a strong wind player and he had a fine Open Championship record. It could be complete coincidence but I’d wager it is more likely the spike in confidence that such players get from not having any of the current elite players in the field. That makes them believe they can win again and at odds of 200/1 I’m happy to believe too, at least until Thursday night!


Summary of Bets

WGC Match Play

Jon Rahm – 2pts ew @ 14/1

Paul Casey – 1pt ew @ 22/1

Kiradech Aphibarnrat – 0.5pt ew @ 80/1

Group Winner Double – McIlroy Group 6 + Casey Group 10 – 2pts @ 4.35

Corales

Graeme McDowell – 1pt ew @ 25/1 (1/4 odds 5 places)

Stuart Appleby – 0.5pt ew @ 200/1 (1/5 odds 7 places)

 

 

Weekly pts advised = 12pts

@theGreek82

 

 

WGC Dell Matchplay – Betting Preview

Henriks Stenson gave plenty of punters a surprise by playing terribly around Bay Hill last week and he missed the cut. I didn’t see much of the action but with his course and current form it was very unlike the ultra-consistent Swede. That lost us 7 points though nevertheless and unfortunately it’s a rather tough looking betting heat again this week with the WGC Match Play. I have also had a quick look at the alternate event in Puerto Rico.

Total 2017 pts advised = 129

Total 2017 pts returned = 77.66

ROI =  -39.8%


WGC Match Play

The WGC Match Play is back at Austin Country Club for a second year and we are now into the third edition of the round-robin group format. While proving popular with most players and indeed sponsors, there are some that preferred the old set-up as Stenson stays away for the second year running having not enjoyed the format change in 2014. He isn’t the only big player missing though as Adam Scott, Rickie Fowler and Justin Rose join him in skipping the event this year but we still have 64 of the world’s best 69 players gathered.

The course sits at 7169 yards and from last year’s coverage it looks truly spectacular. It is a parkland course set along sprawling hills giving rise to some elevation changes and undulating fairways very akin to some British links courses. There are also a lot of deep,menacing bunkers that give it a further links appearance. While the fairways appear to be of average width they will certainly not feel that way standing on the tee. There are many hidden tee shots where the players are forced to carry valleys or shape the ball around trees. The numerous dog legs and elevation changes will also bring about some blind approaches and it appears that accuracy will be important this week. Whenever a course has elevation changes then distance control becomes absolutely paramount. Players will have to trust their yardages and commit to them in order to find both the right areas of the fairways and indeed the greens. As we have come to expect from a Pete Dye design (Sawgrass, RBC Heritage, Whistling Straits), the greens are relatively small and they are undulating and tiered. Accurate approach shots will be required to find the correct portion of the green to allow a makeable birdie putt. But there will be many flags that simply have to be avoided with run-offs and green side bunkers aplenty. There are lots of aggressive players that fare well in match play golf but this week I think it will very much need to be controlled aggression rather than firing at every single flag. Although it must be noted how many holes can be overpowered on the layout. The very first hole is a drivable Par 4 for the longest in the field and just like at Dove Mountain, length off the tee certainly helps in Austin.

So I’m looking for someone who hits plenty of fairways and greens but isn’t afraid to attack pins when the chance is there. They must also have a solid match play pedigree, be that from the World Match Play or strong showings in The Ryder Cup, Presidents Cup or perhaps The European Tour’s own match play events. With this being a Pete Dye design I’d certainly like them to have some form at his courses and perhaps also be a decent exponent of links golf. Form on similar TifEagle bermuda greens will also be useful and luckily that was in use last week at Bay Hill.

Regular readers will know I’m a huge fan of Patrick Reed but I was surprised to see that I haven’t actually backed him to win this year yet. In fact the last time I think I tipped him was at the Ryder Cup when he handled the pressure brilliantly to deliver 3 1/2 pts as top US player. That was his 2nd top scoring Ryder Cup in just his 2nd event. That is quite a record and on both occasions he won his singles match, famously defeating McIlroy last year and also taking care of in-form Henrik Stenson in 2014. On his only Presidents Cup appearance he halved his singles match with Louis Oosthuizen. He is yet to properly set the WGC Match Play on fire but I’m sure that is only a matter of time. In 2014 he won his first game against Graeme Delaet but lost out to George Coetzee on the 3rd play-off hole. In 2015 the first time that they brought in the group stages, he won 2 and lost 1 which meant he was going home. Last year in his home state though was his best showing yet, winning all 3 of his group games only to meet Dustin Johnson in the knockout rounds where he went down 3&2.

So if we look at his professional match play golf in elite competition it makes for very impressive reading. He has played 12 matches and won 8 1/2 of them giving him a winning record of 70.83%. I would imagine only Jason Day can boast those sort of figures and while he should always be respected, Reed is twice the price here. We have seen over recent years how crucial scrambling skills can be in match play and there are few better around the greens than Reed. Even if his long game isn’t up to its best then his short game and strong mentality will make him very hard to beat this week.

Louis Oosthuizen really should have fared a little better in the Match Play in Perth last month eventually losing at about the 5th sudden-death hole in the quarter finals. Only eventual winner Brett Rumford played better golf than him and while he should have seen Adam Bland off in the regulation 6 holes he was still extremely impressive on the sudden-death 90 yard play-off hole. Bland had the honour and kept piling the pressure on Louis by knocking it in stiff. But completely unflustered, Louis kept firing it as close if not closer but it was just a matter of time before something gave. It was 5th time lucky for Bland as Oosty hit it in the bunker but it was yet another display of the South African’s ice cool demeanour in match play.

In his earlier years he didn’t have a great record in this competition but the new group-stage format seems to have really turned his fortunes around. In both 2015 and 2016 he won all 3 of his group games and he only lost out to Jim Furyk (QF) and Jason Day (Final) respectively. Indeed he also lost to Jason Day in 2014 when the Aussie was winning it first time round so it usually takes some inspired play to get rid of him.

Year after year we see the saw the same names excelling in this when it was a straight-knockout event and I’d expect to see a similar pattern occur in the new format. In the two editions so far Rory McIlroy and Louis Oosthuizen were the only two men to make both quarter-finals. I think both players will go well again this week but McIlroy is at single figures and Oosthuizen can be backed at 50/1. He is in the same group as Matsuyama which means one of them will be going home early but Matsuyama’s form has tailed off a little and Oosthuizen won’t be phased by Matsuyama’s tee-to-green accuracy.

McIlroy is no doubt the man to beat this week and while you can’t eat value, I think both Oosty and Reed look overpriced in a format they enjoy on a course that suits them. They are drawn to meet in the semi-finals should they both progress and while you normally see people pick from different halves, at least they can both yield returns unlike if they were to meet earlier.

For something a little different I’ve included a match winner treble for Day 1 (Wednesday, its an early start this week!).

Tyrrell Hatton is currently one of the most in-form golfers in the world and while things are bound to take a nose-dive sooner or later, I think the adrenaline of all these big tournaments will keep him going at least through the Masters. Charles Howell’s form hasn’t been great over the last few weeks and he has a poor record in the WGC Matchplay. I think Hatton’s game is better suited to one on one golf and expect him to get off to a good start here.

Ryan Moore made the quarter-finals here last year and arrives in decent form. He knows he will need to win this to have any chance of getting to the knockout stages as he is in the same group as Jordan Spieth. Yuti Ikeda has been in woeful form so far in 2017 missing the cut in both his Asian Tour starts. He would have missed the cut last time out in Mexico too but for it being a 4 round tournament and he finished down the field in 61st. If Moore plays anywhere near his best he should win.

Matt Fitzpatrick faces a tougher task against Kevin Na but he is a far more accomplished player now than this time last year when he was a little steam-rollered by a tough group including Patrick Reed and Phil Mickelson. He finished 7th on his first professional Masters start, made his debut in the Ryder Cup and collected two more European Tour titles. He will be confident of a good showing this week unlike Na whose game isn’t where he wants it to be with form figures of MC-MC-52.


Puerto Rico Open

Danny Lee rounded off last week with the lowest round in the field on Sunday and that highlighted him as a player to watch this week. Unfortunately the bookmakers are also onto him but that finish of 17th arrived after a 22nd the week before and interestingly they were preceded by 5 missed cuts. It looks like Lee has found something again with his game and if thats the case then there aren’t too many in Puerto Rico with more ability. Lee had an excellent Amateur career which culminated in winning the US Amateur and the Johnnie Walker Classic on the European Tour. He has won on the main Tour before at the Greenbrier in 2015 and also finished runner-up at this very tournament in 2014. He looks worth an interest here now he is playing well again.


Summary of bets

WGC Matchplay

Louis Oosthuizen – 1pt ew @ 50/1

Patrick Reed – 1pt ew @ 40/1

Puerto Rico

Danny Lee – 1pt ew @ 30/1

Match winner treble – 2pts @ 5.65 (Hatton, Moore, Na)

Weely pts advised – 8pts

2017 total pts advised – 135pts

@theGreek82