Last week was the 3rd profitable major in a row as DJ and MacIntyre both placed while Webb grabbed a share of the day one lead. That was also enough to get the blog in to profit for the year so I’d thought I’d celebrate by doing another preview this week and promptly removing said profit! Morikawa was an excellent and deserved winner at Royal St. Georges. I’ve seen a fair few comments about how silly it was for people to write him off on a links course but sadly RSG only played somewhat like a links course. Morikawa managed his way round the course brilliantly but personally I thought all the bite had been removed from the course due to the rain they had this summer. That’s not to take anything away from the record breaking winner, just that I’d still be opposing him on a hard and fast links course in future Opens. His short game was excellent but I didn’t see too much carnage around the greens at all as the softer conditions allowed even the poorer short games to be aggressive while the 10.2 stimp meter greens were also quite an equaliser. The best player won and that’s always a good thing but I’ll be marking this year’s Open down as “unseasonally soft and minimal weekend wind” in the notebook.
2021 pts advised = 267.50
2021 pts returned = 275.09
3M Open
On both Tours this week I’ve decided to go down the Morikawa route and back players who might be inspired by his win. Morikawa played on several US Amateur/College teams and I think it’s fair that some established players who played either with him or against him might give themselves a kick up the arse off the back of his showing at the Open.
First up is Doug Ghim and sadly it looks like I’m not alone in my thinking as he has been backed from 66/1 in to around 45/1 and that probably removes any value that might have been there in backing Collin’s pal and 2017 Walker Cup and Arnold Palmer Cup team mate. Not only did they play in these two winning teams together but they both won all their matches at the Walker Cup and have became friends. With Ghim it’s not too daft a pick either as he has some course and improving current form. Ghim was both 18th at the course last year and on his last start at the John Deere. He was 6th tee to green at the John Deere and putted nicely here last year. Yesterday Justin Ray tweeted that only one course on Tour featured more approaches from the 175-200 yard range than TPC Twin Cities and a look at the approach proximity from that range has Ghim sitting in 1st place, further suggesting his game is in ideal condition for the test ahead. He was a very talented amateur and if his mate’s success can give him even a small lift then he might get competitive in a very weak field here.
Maverick McNealy was also on both those teams winning all of his matches at the 2017 Walker Cup too and playing alongside Morikawa in the Arnold Palmer Cup foursomes. McNealy has been threatening to win on Tour for a while with 3 top 5s to his name. He makes his 3M Open debut but he was also 18th at the John Deere on his last start, which was his 4th top 30 in a row. He gained strokes in every department barring off the tee that week but on his two prior starts he was 1st off the tee. I’m hoping that Morikawa inspiration might be enough to put everything together this week and if it is then this poorer field PGA Tour event won’t take a whole lot of winning if DJ doesn’t turn up fully focused.
Finally I’ll take a massive punt on another member of those US teams Norman Xiong. Xiong was as heralded as Morikawa in their early College days. They paired up on the opening day of the 2017 Walker Cup and set a record with their 8 and 7 win being the biggest margin win in Walker Cup history. Things didn’t go to plan as he left College to turn pro and he really struggled on his limited PGA Tour starts. He then dropped down to the Korn Ferry Tour but lost status there and he has been playing on lower grade Tours and hasn’t played a proper pro event since September. From nowhere he shot a 64 in Monday Qualifying to make this week’s field. Now I have no idea how many events he has tried to qualify for but it seems rather convenient that he goes out and does that the day after Morikawa wins the Open. It’s obviously highly likely that he will miss the cut again but I can’t leave him out at 1000/1 with 8 places. I’ll also have a top 40 bet whenever Betfair add him to the market. Should be around the 13/2 – 7/1 mark and that looks like a nice bet. Betfair are being useless so I’ve changed this to the highest number of places I can find – Top 20 with Skybet at 33/1. Can see the T24th finish now….
Cazoo Open
I’m taking a similar approach in Wales but luckily most of the players I’m backing are also in decent form or played well here last year.
Richard Mansell performed well last week at the Open shooting a couple of 69s on his way to a 74th which was a good effort on his major debut. He also played on that losing European Palmer Cup team in 2017. He hasn’t played here before but his best result was a 12th at the Canary Islands Championship where there is similar space off the tee to Celtic Manor. He led the field off the tee there and hopefully this layout should fit his eye with the driver too being another resort type layout with lots of space. With a positive major debut behind him it seems reasonable to thing he will go well again this week.
Connor Syme enjoyed his two weeks in Wales last year posting back to back top 10s. He probably should have won the Celtic Classic so did well to bounce back the next week and play well confirming how much he enjoyed the course. His recent form has been no better than OK but again Syme featured in that 2017 Walker Cup. He can look at that stacked US team and take confidence from the fact that he and Mcbride took Morikawa and Xiong down to the 18th in the foursomes while he also took Scheffler to the 18th in the singles and Scheffler posted yet another top 10 major finish on Sunday. Again everything seems to be in Syme’s favour for a decent week. His odds of 30/1 aren’t fancy due to his course form but it’s not a strong field at all with Wallace the 9/1 favourite.
Matthew Jordan gets in on virtually exactly the same criteria as Syme. He finished strongly on the Sunday of the Wales Open to record a 3rd place finish, his best result on the European Tour. He was 2nd tee to green and seemed to enjoy the ball-striking test. Jordan’s posted top 20s on his last three starts and he was also on that GB and Ireland Walker Cup team. At the risk of going mad on this link I’m happy enough sticking to it as all players have other reasons to be backing them too. Hopefully their Amateur ties to Morikawa could just give them a little spark and with this poor a field in Wales it looks like fine margins will decide who runs out the winner on Sunday.
Nicolai Hojgaard played on the Danish team that won the Eisenhower Trophy in 2018 and in doing so they were the only team to beat Morikawa’s USA team. Nicolai has been in the shadow of his twin brother the last couple of years as Rasmus bagged two European Tour wins. Neither are the most consistent of players yet and he actually missed both cuts here last year. However he generally enjoys a layout without too much trouble off the tee and with his talent the 80/1 looks perfectly fair in this sort of field.
Summary of bets
3M Open
Doug Ghim – 1pt ew @ 45/1 (1/5 odds 8 places Skybet)
Maverick McNealy – 1pt ew 45/1 (Skybet)
Norman Xiong – 0.5pts ew @ 1000/1 (Skybet) and 1pt Top 20 @ 33/1 (Skybet)
Cazoo Open
Connor Syme – 1pt ew @ 30/1
Matthew Jordan – 1pt ew @ 25/1
Richard Mansell – 1pt ew @ 55/1
Nicolai Hojgaard – 0.75pts ew @ 80/1 (all 1/5 odds 7 places Betfair)
Weekly points advised = 13.5pts
Golf Greek 