The Players Championship and Qatar Masters – Betting Preview

A shocker of a week last week as nobody even came close to returns with everyone struggling with the conditions. This week we welcome the European Tour back with the Qatar Masters but it’s a fairly poor field as we have The Players Championship over in Florida at TPC Sawgrass and as ever it has attracted the best field of the season. George Coetzee is playing in Qatar however and that’s really all I need to know!

2021 pts advised = 93.50

2021 pts returned = 53.73

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The Players Championship

The Players Championship brings up a year since Covid cancelled its first golf event and what a difficult year it has been for everyone. However this week’s tournament brings with it a degree of hope as restrictions in the UK lift and over in the US we are seeing more and more fans present each week.

Whether those fans will see a typical Players Championship I’m not sure. The spectacle in May was superb as the course generally played fairly hard and fast and put a premium on the more traditional aspects of finding fairways and greens. With the switch to March in 2019 everything was a bit softer and therefore it all appeared a bit easier as the greens were more receptive so staying out of the rough was less important. Scrambling around the greens wasn’t nearly as treacherous either with a lot of the bite having been removed. It would perhaps be a little premature to assume that will be the new norm at Sawgrass especially with how firm Bay Hill’s greens got over last weekend but part of me appreciates that things might be changing here and so I’ve tried to focus on players that should handle it however it plays.

That leads me to my main bet from the head of the market and that’s Jon Rahm after he was pushed out to 16/1 this week. I was a little bit unsure at 14/1 but 16/1 with 10 places looks too good to pass up. I’m in danger of getting into trouble with Rahm where the big events are concerned at the prices he is now available, however I’m going to stick with him one more week and in all reality the Masters too…..maybe the US Open. He has shown enough since his switch to Callaway that he is getting back to his best and while the putter isn’t too hot it’s never that much better than warm with Rahm anyway. Rahm’s long game has been in superb order for quite some time now particularly off the tee where he has established himself as arguably the best driver in the game. While some of these figures are from his previous equipment he has played 5 events with the new clubs and 3 with the old. He ranks 4th in strokes gained: tee to green, 3rd in total driving and 13th in GIR. His big win is surely coming sooner rather than later and I expect him to get it this year so I’m stubbornly having 2.5pts ew at a venue that should suit his new, more controlled long game and his sharp short game.

The first bet I placed this week was when I saw Martin Laird’s name atop the ball-striking stats for the 2021 season on the PGA Tour (now 4th after they were updated for Bay Hill). Finding fairways and greens has long since been a prerequisite for success at Sawgrass and odds of 300/1 just seemed too big. Laird has a previous runner up finish and a 5th here from back in 2012 and 2013 respectively but he was a winner again back in October. His form has certainly dropped off a little but his long game numbers still can’t be too bad before he sits in such a lofty position in the stats. There are definitely enough things in his favour to have a small bet at 300/1 with 10 places. Maybe a top 30 bet too at 5/1.

The man who now leads those ball striking stats is Joaquin Niemann who has been having a fantastic year doing everything but win. It is Niemann’s debut here which will make it extremely hard for him to win but he’s not a true debutant as he did play the first round last year shooting a 73 when in very poor form. He arrives this year in great form though having made his last 12 cuts and managing top 45 finishes in all of those events. This included two runner up finishes, a 3rd place and a 6th place and he has gained shots in all 4 departments on 3 of his last 5 starts which shows the all round consistency that he has found already at a young age. He is already a winner on Tour with his 2019 Greenbrier success and The Old White TPC course presents a similar enough test to Sawgrass (but a fair bit easier) and form always correlates nicely with the easier Pete Dye courses. Whether he will properly take to Sawgrass we don’t really know but I just can’t get away from how his long game sets up for the test. As I said at the start he leads the Tour for ball-striking which comprises of 2nd in total driving and 13th in GIR however these still stack up in the modern strokes gained metrics as he is 11th off the tee, 11th tee to green and 48th in approaches. Now with that good a long game you might expect his short game to be poor before he hasn’t won yet this year but that’s not the case. He ranks 43rd around the green and 66th in putting so the consistent all around game is evident in his finishes and his stats and that is perhaps why he is just 50/1 this week. But I still quite like his chances of a good showing so he rates a solid enough each way bet.

I will probably regret this but I have backed Lee Westwood having decided that I can see the potential story of him contending on Sunday here after a brilliant weekend at Bay Hill. Westwood fits the profile of slightly left field winner with a brilliant long game that we used to see at Sawgrass. But what I really liked about last weekend wasn’t his approach game as we know how good that can be. It was his holing out from inside 10ft as he got every putt to the hole and to my mind holed all of them bar one down the stretch. He also ranked 2nd in the field for approaches and 1st tee-to-green as he gained over 2 strokes in every department. He has never done that before looking at all his available shot link events so his all round game looks to have arrived at the perfect time for Sawgrass. Westwood has 4 top 10s here and now that he is scrambling better than ever he should really have a good week. The 70/1 won’t be for everyone but he shouldn’t be dismissed here just because of his age. Throughout his career he has thrived on championship courses and he is as fit as ever so he looks a good each way bet to do so again this week. The 150 on the Exchange also stands out as huge for those who would rather go down that route at double the odds.

Finally I quite like the look of Richy Werenski after a strong showing last week on another difficult Florida course. I thought he had maybe played his hand too recently to still get a good price but the 175/1 looks fair enough despite probably being a lot shorter than he was last week. However he has played nicely on both his visits here posting a 23rd and a 47th. Last week he recorded his 2nd best ever strokes gained tee to green number and with his normally reliable short game I think we should take notice. If Sawgrass does play at all hard and fast Werenksi looks better equipped to handle it right now than his price suggests. I’ll also have a top 30 bet at 4/1.

I was very close to adding Matt Fitzpatrick at 45/1 but for some reason his form here really isn’t great yet. I would expect that to change but maybe not in this new March slot. I’ll be watching him closely in-play. Cameron Smith got more than a 2nd look too but I’m not ready to forgive the splish-splashing around that he did over the weekend at the WGC Workday, certainly not around another water heavy layout like Sawgrass.

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Qatar Masters

I was amazed to see George Coetzee priced up as big as 28/1 in places for this so I backed him straight away. His form in Qatar is superb and he has been unlucky not to have won this event already as the figures read 7-2-8-MC-7-12-5-2-35. Although we switched venue last year the new one proved to be more of the same as it’s another wide open course with large landing areas and big greens. This puts a premium on power and putting and that’s what this erratic driver is all about as he is one of the best putters around on grainy greens. He is even in good form having made his last 5 cuts and on his last start he was 10th in a very deep field on another exposed desert course in Saudi. With George it’s never a given how things will go but he is becoming better at playing well when expected to when conditions suit, which was apparent when he won the Portugal Masters in September. He has been cut to 25/1 but that still looks too big as I’d have him around 20/1 in this weak a field where only Thomas Pieters looks a threat if Coetzee does bring his A game. I’m going 2pts ew on Georgie boy who owes the blog nothing even after backing him 6 or 7 times a year!

I might add another bet or two on Wednesday once I get a proper look at it.

Summary of bets

Players Championship

Jon Rahm – 2.5pts ew at 16/1

Joaquin Niemann – 1pt ew @ 50/1

Lee Westwood – 0.75pts ew @ 70/1 and 1.5pts Top 20 @ 4/1

Martin Laird – 0.5pts ew @ 300/1 and 1pt Top 30 @ 5/1

Richy Werenski – 0.5pts ew @ 175/1 and 1pt Top 30 @ 4/1

All outrights 1/5 odds 10 places either Skybet or Betfair and Top 20/30s are Betfair

Qatar Masters

George Coetzee – 2pts ew @ 25/1 (1/5 odds 7 places general)

Weekly points advised = 18pts

Arnold Palmer Invitational and Qatar Masters – Betting Preview

A grim week last week as conditions were terrible in Oman with severe winds and we got a fairly random looking leaderboard. Over at the Honda the picks fared a little better and both Kang and Varner III were inside the top 25 going into the final round. The excitement didn’t last long though as they were both over par early on for their final round and things carried on in that vein.

2019 pts advised = 102

2019 pts returned = 110.33

ROI = 8.17%

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Arnold Palmer

Very little time this week so just the picks.

I pretty much back Henrik Stenson here every year so despite indifferent form I think the normally reliable Swede looks huge at 55/1 with 8 places. His recent form at Bay Hill is sublime and it is almost the perfect course for him. It is all about tee-to-green and there were no more consistent golfers in that department from 2013 to 2018. This showed in his results here which read 4-MC-3-2-5-8 in that period. He has missed three of his last 4 cuts but hopefully that was just shaking off some rust. Another missed cut may well be on the way but I have to back him at this price, especially with Tiger having withdrawn now. His results coming in prior to his 4th here last year were MC-60 so seeing Bay Hill again should bring about an improvement again.

I wanted to back Patrick Cantlay here but for some reason he isn’t playing again despite it being an absolutely perfect track for him. Another relentless tee to green player who can struggle on the greens is Benny An and I think he looks like a great piece of value at 80/1 with 8 places. An has been playing very solidly for a while now and he hasn’t missed a PGA Tour cut since June. His Bay Hill form is very good reading 14-49-36 but I can see further improvement this year as his long game numbers are even better than usual. He has ranked in the top 20 the last 3 years for strokes gained: tee to green but this year sits in his best position of 11th having gained an average of 1.455 strokes per round tee to green. The putter will probably mis-fire again this week but Bay Hill is a course where poor putters can go well on fairly straight-forward greens, certainly compared to PGA National last week. They will be a lot slower and the event is going to surely be decided by the long game rather than putting.

Adam Hadwin’s stats don’t suggest he is performing all that well this year but he has made his last 7 cuts with the highlight being a runner-up finish at the Desert Classic. He skipped this last year but was 6th in 2016 when he led the field in total driving and ball striking as well as scrambling. Ranks 18th in par 5 scoring this year which is a definite plus point as the long holes are crucial at Bay Hill. Looks a shade of value at 80/1 considering the silly price he was going off a month ago.

I backed Correy Conners earlier in the season off the back of his stellar long game stats and I’m taking a chance again here at 350/1. It’s a big number on a course like this for a player who sits 10th in strokes gained: tee to green. It is often famine or feast with the Canadian as he has 7 missed cuts in his last 10 starts but also a 2nd and 3rd. Being a Florida resident I’m hoping that a return to the area and to bermuda greens can possibly result in a going week for him at a big number.

 

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Qatar Masters

Qatar follows on from Oman last week and the skill-set will be very similar although I’d expect winds to be less severe. If you like a good wind player with solid links form who perhaps didn’t fare that well in Oman i wouldn’t be too disheartened however. There was a big draw bias which massively disadvantaged those who had to play 45 minutes of their 2nd rounds in quite brutal winds. Many players lost 4 or 5 shots during that spell which scuppered their chances and in several cases brought about a missed cut when going ok up to that point.

I’ve gone with a couple of my favourites again here and also kept faith with two from last week. Regular readers may well be getting bored of seeing these names but I’m stubborn if nothing else!

George Coetzee didn’t have to play in the worst of the wind last week but he chucked in a triple bogey on his last hole on Friday to fall to +3 and couldn’t recover in the breeze on Saturday. That was his first look at the course though and returning to Qatar I’m going to fire again. He has course form of 8-MC-7-12-5-2-35 and I really don’t see this slump of his continuing now that he has been injury free again for several months. He led the field in putting here last year just like he did in 2013 and 2014. He absolutely loves these grainy greens and with plenty room off the tee hopefully a good putting week will have him back at the right end of the leaderboard.

Erik Van Rooyen showed glimpses of a return to form in MExico and he makes a lot of appeal here at 60/1 with 7 places. I’ve written plenty of times in the last year that I expect him to win soon and he suggested last summer that it could well be on a links course. He was excellent for 3 rounds at Carnoustie on his way to finishing 17th on his major debut. Qatar has long been a good indicator for Carnoustie and I think it looks the ideal place for him to get his season back on track. It’s his second look at the course having opened 68-66 last year but he faded away on the weekend perhaps getting a nosebleed having not had much experience of being on a European Tour leaderboard. He is far more experienced this year and will be looking to push on from Mexico’s 36th place finish.

Zander Lombard stays on the team this week and completes my all South African line-up. That’s no bad thing though as they have accounted for 6 of the 22 wins at Doha GC. The reasoning is much the same as last week despite him not getting involved on a course that should have suited. Qatar should perhaps be even more suitable and again he has that Carnoustie form when he opened 67-71 at The Open to sit 6th at half way. Having watched his short game several times this season he is another South African that looks set to start winning on links courses at some point. His touch around the greens is brilliant and with wind forecast that will be crucial. He also ranks 8th in strokes gained: tee to green. I’m giving him a pass given the extreme conditions in Oman and will give him one more go at 66/1 with 7 places.

 

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Summary of bets

Arnold Palmer

Benny An – 1pt ew @ 80/1

Henrik Stenson – 0.75pt ew @ 55/1

Adam Hadwin – 0.5pt ew @ 80/1 – (all 3 1/5 odds 8 places Betfair)

Correy Conners – 0.5pt ew @ 350/1 (1/5 odds 8 places Skybet)

Qatar Masters

George Coetzee – 0.75pt ew @ 66/1 (1/5 odds 6 places)

Erik Van Rooyen – 0.75 pt ew @ 60/1 (1/5 odds 7 places)

Zander Lombard – 0.75pt ew @ 66/1 (1/5 odds 7 places)

 

Weekly points advised = 10pts

Honda Classic and Qatar Masters – Betting Preview

A little short of time this week so no moaning about last week and fairly short previews.

2018 pts advised = 70pts

2018 pts returned = 55.94 pts

ROI = – 20%

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Honda Classic

The PGA Tour heads east to PGA National at Palm Beach, Florida for what is one of the tougher stops on Tour. Pars are pretty good around a course where the wind usually blows and the greens are quite small and very well protected. We will be looking for links players in Europe this week and at a course where Ernie Els, Padraig Harrington, Adam Scott and Rickie Fowler have lifted the trophy, I’ll be looking at similar types here. Ability to hit greens in tough conditions and scramble well when you miss is the order of the day at PGA National. Having said that though Rickie Fowler putted his way to victory last year but a lot of those were completing his up and downs. Scrambling and bogey avoidance should be two good angles in while I’d be wanting evidence that a player can play in the wind and handle bermuda greens before I parted with my cash on the Honda Classic.

Louis Oosthuizen is getting advised this week largely on price but he also hit more greens than everyone else last year as he finished 21st. His first 2 appearances ended up in withdrawals and then he missed the cut on his 3rd so last year suggested he was finding his feet on a course that should suit. Despite the abundance of talent the 2010 Open champion possesses the fact he has never won on U.S. soil can make him difficult to back at his price some weeks on the PGA Tour. However that isn’t the case this week as the opening 80/1 looked a great each way price about him getting his 2018 season properly up and running with a contending performance. Unfortunately that 80/1 disappeared as I was writing this today but I still think the general 66/1 to 70/1 gives us some value if you look at the standard of player around the 50/1 mark this week.

My only other each way pick is another solid links player and after Graeme McDowell played so well last week at Riviera I think he is also a little over-priced at 66/1. McDowell has usually been a very good wind player through-out his career and there is no doubting that he prefers a difficult test of golf with his first win in the U.S. coming at the U.S. Open with a winning score of just level par. He was 12th in both GIR and scrambling last week so hopefully a switch to bermuda greens might bring about a change in fortunes on the greens for GMac. Another major-winner who is priced up alongside a few players who he is simply better than. So lets take advantage of that 66/1 as he surely shouldn’t be any bigger than 50/1 this week at a course where he has 4 Top 10s from his 8 appearances.

Kiradech Aphibarnrat makes a rare appearance in the U.S. this week having not played there since 2016. But he has made the Top 20 on 3 of his 14 appearances and he arrives confident and with his game in good shape. This test should suit him perfectly so I think the stand-out 5/1 on offer with Betfred for a Top 20 should be snapped up. Given several of those appearances in the U.S. were on courses that wouldn’t have suited him I think there is probably a little wiggle room down to 4/1 but no probably no lower than that.

 

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Qatar Masters

Link to The Golf Family preview;

https://thegolffamily.com/qatar-masters-betting-preview-2/

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Summary of Bets

Honda Classic

Louis Oosthuizen – 1pt ew @ 66/1

Graeme McDowell – 1pt ew @ 66/1

Kiradech Aphibarnrat – 1pt Top 20 @ 5/1 (Betfred)

Qatar Masters

Alexander Bjork – 1pt ew @ 40/1 (1/5 odds 6 places)

Joakim Lagergren – 0.5pt ew @ 100/1 (1/5 odds 6 places)

Thomas Bjork – 1pt Top 20 @ 6/1

 

Weekly pts advised = 9pts

Total 2018 pts advised = 79pts

 

@theGreek82

Farmers Insurance Open and Qatar Masters – Betting Preview

It was a victory for a tee-to-green prowess last week as two of the game’s better ball-strikers both got it done despite their usual struggles on the greens. Unfortunately both players were tipped on the blog a few times last year and in hindsight neither were particulalrly surprising winners.

In the US Hudson Swafford has been playing some brilliant golf tee-to-green but never seemed to make any putts when it counted. He certainly hadn’t thrown any Tournaments away to date and was actually quite impressive down the stretch on Sunday even if he did have a wobble on Saturday.

Tommy Fleetwood was perhaps even more impressive in Abu Dhabi as he held off a host of top-class challengers to finally get his 2^nd win after collecting his maiden victory at Gleneagles in 2013. The Southport man hit 66 out of 72 greens in Abu Dhabi and was giving himself putt after putt. Fleetwood is very similar to Westwood at his peak in that their below average putting is accentuated by their relentless approach play. It can seem like every time you see them on the TV they are missing a putt from 15ft but on some courses that is ok. Others were struggling to find the greens so just hitting them in the correct number was enough to come out on top as others made mistakes around him.

There were no returns last week despite Hatton being the 3rd round leader in Abu Dhabi.

That removes the early profits and 2017 is as follows;

2017 pts advised = 31

2017 pts returned = 29.54

ROI = -4.7%

 

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Farmers Insurance Open

Tiger makes his much anticipated return to the PGA Tour this week and there couldn’t be a more fitting place for him to return than Torrey Pines. He has won this Tournament 7 times along with a US Open in 2008 which was his last major win. It’s anyone’s guess where he will finish but the signs were good in December so hopefully he will go well as it would be great to get to see a fit Tiger Woods compete again in 2017.

They will play two courses this week, with one round on the easier North and one round on the South course prior to the cut. After that it is two more rounds on the South course. The North course has undergone a substantial renovation since last year but with only one round to play and the South course being so much tougher, I’m not going to guess how this will effect things.

The South course is a classic US championsip layout, playing long at some 7600 yards with narrow fairways and fairly slick greens for a non major. The greens are poa annua whereas the new greens on the North are now bentgrass.

Being a coastal track in California, form can tie in well with Pebble Beach and many players go well at both courses.

Last year the wind played a major part in proceedings on the Sunday as Snedeker shot an early 69 only to see all the leaders fall by the wayside. By the time they completed on Monday they had all gone backwards and he came out on top for the 2nd time.

The forecast isn’t for anything like that level of wind but it is usually a factor at some point over the four days.

Previous course form stacks up very well around Torrey Pines and as well as Tiger’s 8 wins there are many others who crop up on the leaderboard again and again.

Both Snedeker and Woods are two of the best at avoiding bogeys so they always fair well on tough courses. That can often be attributed to both strong scrambling skills and good putting.

I’d make bogey avoidance, scrambling, three-putt avoidance and driving distance the key stats this week but course form is perhaps more crucial than anything.

Gary Woodland looks to me like the standout bet this week. At the head of the market we have the old dilemma of whether we want to take single figure prices about Jason Day and Dustin Johnson and I think there are enough reasons to look beyond their class at a tough Championship venue like Torrey Pines. Day still hasn’t quite shown us that he is fully over his back injury and DJ doesn’t have the best of records there despite him normally enjoying tough, coastal layouts. He has also flown back from Abu Dhabi this week and that has to be another negative.

Woodland was in 2^nd place there last year heading into the final round but along with 99% of the field he struggled as the wind got up and made the course extremely difficult.

He is an immense talent and has been with Butch Harmon for some time now. At his peak he doesn’t have any real weakness and given Harmon’s track record I would assume they will be leaving no stone unturned in trying to maximise Woodland’s unquestionable talent. His substantial length off the tee will always help him on tough Championship layouts and despite the fairways being narrow at Torrey Pines, history tells us that it pays to get as close to the green as possible. The last five winners have ranked 48th, 1st, 24th, 2nd and 1st for driving distance and that 48th was Snedeker last year which may be a little skewed by the brutal wind.

The greens are slick and it will certainly pay to attack them with as much loft as possible. Jimmy Walker proved this around another championship layout at Baltusrol when winning the US PGA Championship in August. He missed more fairways than most but such was his ability to find the greens with his short irons, he was still able to putt his way to victory.

Woodland is by no means anywhere near as good a putter as Walker but like Walker he generally goes better on Poa Annua greens. That is what he will face on 3 of his rounds this week and hopefully that will bring about the improvement needed on the greens. Last time out at the Sony his game was in fantastic shape as he finished in 6^th place. He ranked 4^th for GIR and 9^th for scrambling which helped him finish 2nd in the all-round ranking.  All this was continuing where he left off in 2016 as he made it to the Tour Championship where he finished 10^th and he rounded the year off with a 2^nd place at the OHL Classic. He hit more greens than anyone that week and ranked 1^st in the all-round. For the 2017 season he currently sits 18th in bogey avoidance and 22nd in scrambling.

It’s clear this is a player whose game has been firing on all cylinders for some time now and that was exactly the case with Hudson Swafford last week who finished up the 2016 season ranked 10^th in the all-round ranking. Gary Woodland finished in 23^rd and it can be a very good indication of future winners.  They have both maintained that into 2017 as they rank 16^th and 29^th respectively.

To me Gary Woodland’s game is in the perfect place to tackle Torrey Pines. There won’t be as many putts holed so he won’t have to all of a sudden start putting the lights out. A small improvement on a more suitable surface should see him go close.

There are a few other decent outright each way prices but I’ve sided with John Huh this week. He is a very solid player who enjoys tougher tests of golf. He finished 8th in this last year while ranking 2nd in total accuracy.

While he hasn’t exactly flown out of the blocks in 2017, prior to last week’s missed cut he did have back to back 27th place finishes. He currently ranks 15th in scrambling and 31st in bogey avoidance and at 150/1 I think he looks over priced thanks to last week’s missed cut.

Another player who I can’t leave out at 200/1 is Cameron Smith. He showed at the 2015 US Open at Chambers Bay how much enjoys a proper test of golf as he finished 4th in his very first Major. He has had some mixed results but always looks more comfortable where par is a good score. He also missed the cut last week but he should be suited far more to this test and before the Christmas break he signed off with a runner-up finish in the Australian Open and a 15th in the Australian PGA. He has missed the cut on both his appearances here but I’m still convinced it should suit him so he is worth a small play.
The final bet is a rather left field Top 20 bet on New Zealander Steve Alker. He is a bit of a journey man but has shown a liking for windy courses in the past when he finished 19th at The Open in 2012 around Royal Lytham. Having gained his 2017 Tour card he has performed ok so far and finished 25th last week at the CareerBuilder. It’s entirely possible that Torrey Pines will be too long for him but if conditions do become difficult he looks over priced for a Top 20 at 20/1 in places.

 

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Qatar Masters

The Qatar Masters is played around Doha Golf Club and it is an exposed course that has historically been a course where good links players prosper. The course correlates well with Gleneagles, The Portugal Masters, Alfred Dunhill Links and The Open itself.

I don’t really like the front of the market with so many of the players that will probably play well all looking too short. So instead I’m going to play three longer prices to small stakes but include a bigger bet on a them in the place markets.

First up is the Challenge Tour graduate Alexander Bjork who finished 7^th on the Road to Oman to gain his 2017 card. During that successful campaign the highlight was winning the Le Vaudreuil Golf Challenge in France in July.

He hasn’t played Qatar before, in fact he has only made 6 European Tour starts but that hasn’t held him back so far. He missed the cut on his first start when playing at the Madeira Open in 2014 but in his next 5 starts he didn’t finish worse than 45^th. Indeed 4 of them have been this season and he arrives with form figures of 17-45-7-13 which stands up against most of this field.

He did visit the Emirates twice last year on Challenge Tour duty finishing 32^nd in U.A.E before confirming his card by placing 7^th in the NBO Golf Classic Grand Final in Oman.

Most Swedish players tend to enjoy links courses due to being familiar with playing on exposed, windy courses. I’m hoping that will be the case with Bjork and so far in his career he already has an 8^th place finish in Scotland at Aviemore which is an exposed course not too dissimilar to Gleneagles.

In his four starts so far he has struggled to put all aspects of his game together in any one week but he led the field in South Africa in GIR and was 3^rd in fairways hit. He followed that up by ranking 11^th in scrambling and 29^th in total putting last week in Abu Dhabi.

He is flying under the radar a little and I think subsequently we are getting quite a good price about someone with his form figures. He looks to have a great chance of another Top 20 even if he can’t contend.

A little low on time to cover the others here so it will be brief.

Benjamin Herbert has played well here twice before finishing 20th last year and 10th in 2015. He has a game very well suited to a links challenge and he also fisnished 10th at the Portugal Masters which ties in well with Doha Golf Course.

He has been threatening to win on The European Tour but hasn’t quite contended down the stretch yet. His prolific career on the Challenge Tour tells he isn’t afraid to win though and he remains a player worth watching through out 2017.

Chris Paisley finished his 2016 season very well with a 3rd place finish in Italy and a 5th place at the Portugal Masters.

He has missed both his Qatar Masters cuts to date but he looked a far more confident player last year and has a 12th place finish at the Alfred Dunhill Links which is another tournament that links well with Qatar. He warmed up nicely last week finishing 29th in Abu Dhabi where he putted very well. That well help him around the Doha course where putting is always crucial.

As a final little point, Paisley was part of the same Walker Cup team as Fleetwood in 2009 so hopefully he may take some extra motivation from Fleetwood’s win last week.

I’m also going to have a Top 10 double on last week’s two winners as they should both enjoy their respective tests and I don’t see winning as any sort of reason to halt their brilliant form.

 
                          Summary of Bets

Farmers Insurance Open

Gary Woodland – 1pt ew @ 40/1

John Huh – 0.5pt ew @ 150/1

Cameron Smith – 0.5pt ew @ 200/1

Steve Alker – Top 20 – 1pt @ 20/1

Qatar Masters

Alexander Bjork – 0.5pt ew @ 100/1 and 1pt Top 20 @ 3/1

Benjamin Hebert – 0.5pt ew @ 80/1 and 1pt Top 20 @ 3/1

Chris Paisley 0.5pt ew @ 200/1 and 1pt Top 20 @ 8/1

Hudson Swafford and Tommy Fleetwood – 1pt Top 10 double @ 19.25 

Weekly pts advised – 12pts

Total pts advised – 43

@theGreek82 

Farmers Insurance Open and Qatar Masters – Betting Preview

Apparently Einstein once said that “Insanity was doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results”
While I’m not going to suggest that Rory Mcilroy or I are in anyway mad, I was certainly questioning my decision to back him to win his elusive first Abu Dhabi Championsip when I woke up and looked at the leader board on Sunday morning. This was the 7th time he had finished in the top 3 and while the course is largely perfect for him, it appears there is always just about enough rust in his game to prevent him winning first time out in the new season. Notably and perhaps worryingly for most other golfers on Tour, both Mcilroy and Spieth probably played to about 75% last week, holed virtually nothing between them and still managed to find themselves in the top 5 on Sunday afternoon. While Fowler may well have held them off anyway such is his talent, there aren’t many players in world golf that can remain so competitive when not playing to towards their best golf.

In the US things were heartbreaking as Lingmerth lost in a play-off to Jason Dufner. After leading all the way Dufner was passed by Lingmerth at the 16th and they were level again when Dufner pulled his tee shot on the 17th green. It went long and off the island green but somehow stopped on the rocks. That looked to be it but his ball also managed to find an excellent lie and Dufner stabbed out a chip that very nearly dropped.

So they went to a playoff and this time Dufner showed great strength of character to lay up out of the bunker face and then stick a wedge to 12ft. After Lingmerth missed his putt to win, Dufner still had to make his to continue. He fired it in the back of the cup and on the next hole Lingmerth pulled his approach into the water and that was that.

I can’t be too upset about the week though as his 2nd place together with Mcilroy’s 3rd and An’s 5th brought returns of 32.8pts which leaves the overall totals as follows.

Total pts advised – 365.50
Total pts returned – 493.36
ROI – 35%

It also brings 2016 into profit with a 5% ROI for the calendar year so far!

This week the PGA Tour continues its west coast swing and heads south west to San Diego while The European Tour hits the middle stop in its own Middle East swing, the Qatar Masters.

 

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Farmers Insurance Open

At Torrey Pines this week we have several high profile former winners teeing it up, namely Jason Day (who defends), Brandt Snedeker and Phil Mickelson. It sets up to be a great week as we have the first hard test of 2016. The last three weeks have all been relative birdie-fests but the last two runnings of this were both won on -9 and when we consider that the South Course here is a Championship layout then we can see why that is the case. Tiger Woods won this seven times and he also took home the 2008 US Open from Torrey Pines with a finishing score of -1.

As well as the South Course each player will have a knock around the easier North Course on Thursday or Friday before the South hosts those that survive the cut on the weekend. In addition to being suited to the tougher South course, if a player wants to contend this week it is important that they adapt also to the North course and record a low score.

The rough can be quite penal around the South course but the fairways aren’t overly narrow so wayward driving isn’t normally a disadvantage but on tough layouts it’s always easier to hold fast greens with loft and spin working in your favour. As ever that is going to be made easier by being nearer the greens and in the fairway, so long, straight driving certainly won’t hurt.

With fast, undulating green complexes it will not only be hard to hold the greens but also to get the ball to stop near the flags. Accurate approach play will perhaps be the most important attribute this week. While strong putting is always crucial on these tricky poa annua greens, it will be more about saving par this week than making a barrel load of birdies so scrambling looks to be the 2nd most crucial.

This narrows our search down to long drivers who have great distance control with their irons and can get it up and down when they do get their approach wrong. I also want some current form and previous strong showings at Torrey Pines or at elast on similar poa annua greens elsewhere.

My main pick this week is Phil Mickelson and as I have already covered my reasoning in some detail I will include the link to the Matchbook preview here

https://www.matchbook.com/lounge/event-previews/farmers-insurance-open-2016-01-28

To summise, this is Mickelson’s home town, he finished 3rd last week with a total driving rank of 19th and an all round ranking of 11th. It seems his 3 months of work on his swing has paid off and he is driving it straighter than last year. He has won this tournament twice before and putts well on poa annua greens. I’m hoping if the driving remains straight this week he will contend on a course he knows well.

I can’t quite believe I’m going to do this but I’m going to tip Charles Howell III for the first (and probably the last) time. He is the typical journeyman these days and while he is a two time winner on Tour, we have to go back some 262 PGA Tour starts to 2007 for his last win. I’m not inspiring confidence here at all! But his form so for in the 2016 season is brilliant, 11th-13th-9th-17th-10th. That sort of consistency at least tells us that his game is in good condition and that can be further backed up by the stats. Last week he ranked 5th in total driving, 5th in ball striking, 24th in putting, 15th in scrambling, 15th in GIR and 2nd in the all round ranking. That started to get me interested in Howell III but the final nail in my coffin was that he also finished T5th at Torrey Pines last year. Howell III has always been a player that appeared happy to pick up cheques and finish in the Top 10 without threatening to win. He has certainly made a lot of money through that approach on his 15 years on Tour. But we have seen several players re-evaluate their game in their 30s and subsequently push on to bigger and better things. Matt Kuchar and Jimmy Walker are two hugely talented players who were previously tarred with the same brush as “Chucky 3 sticks”. They are now both multiple winners and Ryder Cup players. While I’m certainly not suggesting Howell has the attitude required to bring his game to that level, I don’t think it’s unreasonable for him to win again and it could be that the switch to PXG clubs is the little boost needed to remind him how much ability he has and to get over the line again. His price isn’t great but it would be even shorter if it was someone more fashionable in possession of his form figures.

While I didn’t plan on picking anyone making their debut, Si-Woo Kim is very hard to get away from this week. Si-Woo qualified for the Tour in 2013 missing all 8 of his cuts but things have certainly improved this season. He is making his 9th 2016 PGA Tour start and while he missed two of those first 3 cuts, he has turned the other 6 into Top 25s with calendar year form of 9th-4th. Not only is he in great form but his stats for the relevant attributes this week are alarmingly good. For his 3 months on Tour he sits 3rd in Total Driving, 3rd in the all-round, 8th in scrambling and 14th in putting. In truth, beyond being another young Asian professional with no apparent weakness to his game, he isn’t someone I know a great deal about. But I did notice that he has already won stateside with victory coming in the Stonebrae Classic, a tournament that has been won by two other players who have already shown a liking for tough, championship layouts in Kevin Chappell and Tony Finau. It’s an outsider pick for sure but 80/1 appears a great price for someone playing so well who on paper at least looks well suited to the course.

 

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Qatar Masters

As the middle east swing continues we hit the middle stop and The Qatar Masters at Doha Golf Club. While all 3 courses on the swing are in the desert and present a very links like test, Doha tends to be more exposed than the other two and subsequently the list of winners is a who’s who of Links golf experts. Branden Grace, Sergio Garcia, Chris Wood, Paul Lawrie, Thomas Bjorn and among those Robert Karlsson. They have all won tournaments on Links courses but also thrive in wind and all have high finishes on proper British links courses be it The Open, The Alfred Dunhill Links or the Irish Open.

The course itself stands at a fairly long 7400 yards and as well as being exposed the fairways are quite wide and forgiving. The greens aren’t the hardest to hit but their protection comes from the weather. If the wind blows as expected then solid ball-strikers who can keep the ball below the high winds will prosper. Once on the green they face bermuda greens again and they are grainy and quite tricky. Quality putters on links type greens go well here and that is backed up by George Coetzee and his strong Doha record of 12-3-2.

It looks like it pays to have been in Abu Dhabi the week before with the last five winners all having played but only averaging a 32nd place finish. Having acclimatised to the conditions appears more important than a strong finish last week but with them facing similar greens this week I’d certainly like to see that they putted ok in Abu Dhabi.

Doha Golf Club is a course that rewards experience of the test and there are  quite a lot of players who have regularly contended there over the years. All the previous five winners had played the year before they won and averaged a finish of 13th so I want players onside that have at least played here once before and preferably had a top 20 last year. A look at the stats alone for those five winners and what it most noticeable is how they did everything well the week they won, ranking 4th-8th-4th-1st and 2nd in the all-round ranking.

Form does tend to carry over across the three events and that is to be expected with both last week’s course and Doha being designed by Peter Harradine so a good showing last week is certainly not a disadnatage but with a Wednesday start they won’t want to be arriving off the back of a contending Sunday.

The front two in the market are the last two winners of this event and so must be given respect. But they are both single figure prices and neither have done anything recently to suggest that backing them at such prices in European Tour fields is a road to profit. They are both certainly prolific winners but since Grace burst on the scene with a 4 win season in 2012, he hasn’t made winning look as easy and regularly manages to find a Sunday bogey or two to derail his attempts. The same can be said of Garcia in the last few years. There is no question that they are two of the best three players (Oosthuizen) on show here but their short prices set up some value elsewhere in the field. Of the two I’d be be inclined to fall on the side of Grace who has at least played some solid golf so far in 2016 and perhaps wasn’t helped by the weather delays the last two weeks. I think I’d want nearer 12/1 to play him although I did consider him for the each way doubles until I struggled to whittle my shortlist down even without him.

Eddie Pepperell is a player that will be jotted down in many Golf punters’ notebooks with “Links golf” or something similar scribed alongside. Ever since he joined the Tour full-time 3 years ago he has come into his own largely on links type courses. Additionally, he will also be in a lot of notebooks as a potential 1st time winner during the 2016 season. I have had some success with stubbornly backing players that I’m confident will win sooner rather than later, (Weisberger, Coetzee, Fitzpatrick), but the key is trying to do so when their price still holds value. The 66/1 about the young Englishman looks more than fair when we see he finished 4th in this last year. That gives us the course form and he had further links finishes of 5th at the KLM, 4th at the Scottish Open and 2nd at the Irish Open. Those were his only top five finishes last season which further highlights his liking for these conditions.

Has he been playing well of late though? Well last week was his first effort since November and he played ok finishing in 46th place. Prior to Christmas though he signed off with an 8th place in South Africa so last week will have served well to get his game ready for this week and I suspect he has highlighted this as an event that he could win. His stats weren’t great but he did rank 10th in GIR so with a slight improvement in his normally sound putting, on a course he likes, he can play well and maybe find himself on the leaderboard again at the close of play. He hasn’t had any high profile collapses yet as he has never quite manoeuvred himself into a winning position on the weekend. But I think with the confidence that he oozes he won’t shy away from the challenge and his odds might look very favourable come the back 9 on Sunday.

George Coetzee let me down last week for a Top 10 but with 3 starts now since his ankle injury I’m keen to go in again on a player that has course form of 12-2-5. Coetzee loves the middle east swing and his form figures across all three tournaments are equally strong with just one missed cut and 6 top tens. One of the most frustrating aspects of Coetzee’s game is his knack of throwing in a big number with wild tee shots or aggressive play at the wrong time. But interestingly he ranked 10th in Total Driving last week which will definitely help him here and we know all about how well he putts, especially on these greens where has ranked 7th-1st-1st-7th for putting on his four visits to date. If he has managed to straighten up off the tee during his spell out injured it’s also possible that he had time to address other issues that might have been holding him back. So if he can plot his way around the course a little better over the weekend then he we might see him holding aloft his 4th European Tour trophy.

Alex Noren is a player whose talent is unfortunately matched by his misfortune with injuries. Over the last two years he has only played 19 European Tour events but he still managed to secure his 4th career ET win last summer back home in Sweden at the Nordea Masters. It was his second win at the tournament with both coming on two different links layouts. There is no questioning his prowess on Links courses and he has the record to back it up, 3rd place finishes at both the Scottish Open together with a 9th in The Open Championship in addition to his two wins in his homeland. He also loves Doha Golf Club and has finished 12th – 4th the last two years while struggling with injury. At his best he is one of the finest wind golfers on the European Tour so he wont be phased by the forecast winds in Qatar. Noren played well last week and finished in T35th which will have shaken off some of the rust from his 6 months out through a wrist injury. It would be a big ask for him to win again so quickly after returning but with so long out injured he will be determined to make up for lost time in 2016. At a general 66/1 he looks a decent each way price on a course that suits him perfectly.

Johan Carlsson just missed out as a pick this week as I’m not convinced that he is a winner just yet. But he has excellent recent form with a 16th finish last week coming after a 7th in the Joburg Open. Carlsson ranked 15th in the all round ranking and also a very respectable 20th in Total Driving which is pretty good for the wayward Swede. He is another that handles wind well and came 13th here last year after an opening 74. I’m going to add a Top 10 bet on him at

Joost Luiten was also very close but I felt he was a little short in the betting given he missed the cut on his only visit to Doha Golf Club. The reason he came so close though was that he ranked 1st in ball-striking and 2nd in the all round last week. Luiten also has a great long game for links layouts as he hits the ball so straight and true. However I’m not convinced that he will putt well enough this week so while he deserves a mention I’m just about happy to leave him out.

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Summary of Bets

Farmers Insurance Open

Phil Mickelson – 1.5pts ew 22/1

Charles Howell III – 0.5pts ew 50/1

Si-Woo Kim – 0.5pts ew 80/1

Qatar Masters

George Coetzee – 1pt ew 33/1

Eddie Pepperell – 0.75pt ew 66/1

Alex Noren – 0.75pt ew 66/1

Johann Carlsson – 1pt Top 10 at 15/2

0.25pts 3×3 ew doubles – (Mickelson, Howell III, Kim) x (Coetzee, Pepperell, Noren)

 

Weekly pts advised – 15.5

Total pts advised – 381

 

@theGreek82