A total washout last week as Kang got closest but in the end he couldn’t even break the top 20 with a -4 round on Sunday. In Europe Ryan Fox took a share of the lead on day one but he went backwards from there. Results as follows for the year;
2019 pts advised = 493.50
2019 pts returned = 568.82
ROI = 15.26%
Zozo Championship
The PGA Tour stays in Asia this week for its first ever event in Japan, the Zoro Championship at Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club. The course itself hasn’t been used on any Tour for quite some time so it’s a bit of a guessing game. However there are lots of fly-over videos available for every hole and the Skins event between Tiger, McIlroy, Day and Matsuyama was played at the same course on Monday. Ultimately though we only really know what it looks like rather than how it will play so while I’ve found four bets I’m not going to get too carried away stakes wise in case it all goes horribly wrong.
We have a tree-lined layout as is typical of these parts but I didn’t think it looked quite as narrow as some have suggested on Twitter. The rough also looks to be fairly manageable so while keeping the ball in the fairway never hurts on a parkland course, it only measures a little over 7000 yards. On Monday I thought I read somewhere that there was kikuyu fairways here so I used that as a bit of a starting point which took me to Riviera Country Club. The classic Los Angeles tree-lined course actually resembles this course visually. Both have several dog-leg fairways and rough that looks green and thick but has less effect than you would think and bombers typically go well there. Both have smaller green complexes with tiers and it could be difficult to hit the right sections here. So I had already committed before I started doubting tonight where I read about the kikuyu! I can’t seem to find any info now about what type of grass the fairways are although we know the greens are bentgrass. But I quite like the Riviera aspect anyway and two other courses that appear a little similar are TPC River Highlands and Copperhead at Innisbrook which host the Travelers and Valspar respectively.
Bubba Watson loves Riviera, TPC River Highlands, Augusta and Copperhead. He has won twice at those first three and has a 3rd and 4th at the latter. All four have tree-lined fairways while Augusta and River Highlands also have bentgrass greens like we find here in Japan. So for a fairly wild driver Bubba actually has an extremely impressive record on narrow parkland courses. He has had a fairly quiet 6 months and we know he doesn’t travel too well but everyone has their price and he has actually won the HSBC Champions in China at this time of year. I just think Boylesports 100/1 looks massive about Bubba here, particularly as the course is soft and playing longer than normal. Obviously the course could end up playing more claustrophobic off the tee and Bubba’s patience might well be tried too much. But he loves shaping his driver around trees and as long as he can see some sort of picture then he should be ok. It’s speculative but that’s ok at this sort of price in what is essentially really a 70 man field.
Jason Day often goes well on the same sort of courses as Bubba does and after a sighter on Monday around the course, I think there is a decent chance he can do the Narashino double. He too has been quite quiet this year with three of his better finishes at TPC River Highlands, Augusta and TPC Sawgrass. Last week at the CJ Cup he hit over 60% of his fairways and 70% of his greens while he putted brilliantly. The last time he put that all together he was 5th at the Masters. So maybe that win on Monday wasn’t quite the fluke that we all thought. If Day can get back to his best of 2015/2016 then we need to remember he is pretty close to the very top tier. Maybe Monday’s confidence booster will give him that push he needs to get back there.
If I’m right and Riviera and TPC River Highlands do end up a decent angle in then that might bode well for a player that is almost the polar opposite of Bubba too. Chez Reavie very nearly won at Riviera in 2016 while he landed his long overdue 2nd PGA Tour win at TPC River Highlands earlier this year. Reavie has taken his game to new levels this year posting a 3rd at the US Open together with a 5th place at the Tour Championship. His accurate driving together with his controlled mid to long irons make these sort of layouts ideal for him. He warmed up in Korea last week so should be ready to go this week and he looks a very fair each way price at 66/1 with 7 places.
Kevin Na also fits a similar mould to Reavie and excels on bentgrass greens and shorter courses. But he is really getting on the team first and foremost on value grounds again. Personally I have no idea why he is 55/1 here considering he won 2 starts ago, had a week off to spend with his new baby and then posted a 20th place finish in his homeland last week. I don’t understand how the likes of Cabrera-Bello and Leishman are 40/1 while he is 15 points bigger. RCB has never even looked like winning on the PGA Tour while Leishman is trophy-less since this time last year. With the form Na is in he needs backed again at this dismissive price on a course that should suit.
Portugal Masters
The Portugal Masters heads to Vilamoura and the Dom Pedro Victoria Golf Course for the 13th time, but it will have to be lucky for someone in the field. The course is a wide open, exposed par 71 where its relative lack of length and minimal rough allow low scoring and very straight forward conditions. Everyone in the field will find themselves hitting in excess of 65% of these huge greens and more often than not that results in a bit of a putting competition. The bombers have an advantage as they can let rip and not be penalised but they will also be able to be more aggressive with their approaches and find the right area of the greens with shorter irons in hand.
While you have to putt well, you don’t necessarily have to be a good putter here. The greens are reasonably flat and not the trickiest to read, hence Lucas Bjerregaard ranking 1st for putting two years ago.
The course requires the same sort of skill set as events like the Qatar Masters and the Alfred Dunhill Links. There are many repeat offenders on those leaderboards and they are worth a look at to potentially help with betting angles, particularly the Scottish leaderboard from 3 weeks ago.
In perhaps the most predictable move ever I’m backing George Coetzee here for the 3rd year in a row. His record at the course is very strong and as soon as I saw his stats through halfway in France I knew I was backing him here at anything north of 20/1. If you could purposely design a course that doesn’t suit George it would practically be Le Golf National while if you could design one that suits him perfectly it would be very close to the Dom Pedro Victoria course. If he can very nearly win around Le Golf National that tells me his game is in fine order, even if the commentators from Sunday’s final round would have you believe something different. Coetzee hit a shocker of a tee shot on 15 as he found the water by some 40 yards with an iron and Roe et all proceeded to forget the 3 stiffed iron approaches in a row from him and suggested he was fighting his swing. Coetzee has always struggled with pressure tee shots right through his career. He was on the winning score on the 18th tee at the Shenzhen International in 2017 before driving into the water and posting a snowman to finish his round. But this only becomes a problem when there is trouble off the tee. With no danger around he will take the driver out more readily and we saw how good he can be with his short iron recoveries last week in France. He putted ok in France but he prefers these grainy links style greens and with a putting improvement likely (he was 5th in total putting last year and averages 28.96 putts per round here) then I’m struggling to see how he doesn’t contend this week in a field that is even weaker than Paris. I know Coetzee isn’t for everyone but I honestly think he will go close and should be a lot nearer to 2nd favourite here.
Chris Paisley makes the team by the same argument as Coetzee. If he can finish 8th around LGN last week then what he can do on a course that actually suits his game. Paisley has made all 8 cuts in Portugal, with four of those coming in this event and the best finish being a 5th in 2016. Paisley is a European Tour winner now though and arriving in form he demands respect in this level of field. Maybe not quite enough to be backing him at 30/1 but there is still some 35/1 around and I can just about make peace with that and 8 places.
There are a couple of other speculative plays I like so will have small stakes on two others. This is exactly the sort of course Chris Wood loved when he was at his best and he has posted top 12s on his last three visits. Wood has had a very poor year and hasn’t bettered his 12th around here in the year since. He has missed his last three cuts but as is often the case it has been his wild driving that has held him back finding below 60% of his fairways on his last 10 starts. That doesn’t hold you back around here and indeed he has been below 60% driving accuracy the last two visits here. Worth a go at triple figures given it’s clearly his sort of course.
Kristoffer Reitan is yet another young powerful player from the Nordic region. They seem to be rolling these 6ft powerhouses off a conveyor belt, all seemingly following the Lucas Bjerregaard style of game. I still don’t know too much about him but I had to include him after noticing he was 1st in strokes gained: off the tee last week in France. Bizarrely he stopped the rot of 6 missed cuts finishing 18th around Le Golf National which is no sort of course to be finding your game. He was 8th in driving distance, 5th in driving accuracy and 7th in GIR along the way which is pretty handy around any layout. Reitan’s best finish in his rookie year was a 5th at the Perth Sixes so maybe he likes the grainier greens and if he can find some flat stick improvement he should be looking to overpower this course and improve on last week’s 18th place.
Summary of Bets
Zozo Championship
Bubba Watson – 1pt ew @ 100/1 (Boylesports 1/5 odds 7 places)
Jason Day – 1pt ew @ 40/1 (1/5 odds 6 places Skybet)
Chez Reavie – 0.75pts ew @ 66/1 (1/5 odds 7 places Betfair/PP)
Kevin Na – 0.75pts ew @ 55/1 (1/5 odds 7 places Betfair/PP)
Portugal Masters
George Coetzee – 2pts ew @ 25/1 (1/5 odds 7 places Skybet)
Chris Paisley – 1pt ew @ 35/1 (1/5 odds 8 places Betfair/PP)
Chris Wood – 0.5pts ew @ 125/1 (1/5 odds 7 places Skybet)
Kristoffer Reitan – 0.5pts ew @ (1/5 odds 8 places Betfair/PP)
Weekly points advised = 15pts
Golf Greek 