It was the first profitable Major for the blog for some time so I really should be quite pleased. But with 3 players all poised to make a run at Koepka on Sunday it was a little annoying that only Pieters managed half a charge and both Rahm and Day were rather tame. Rahm and Pieters both placed though and Rafa returned the top 20 money so with 33pts returned it was a good week. With the usual major hangover I’ve not had the time to write too much but I did manage some research so have found a few bets.
Total 2018 pts advised = 376.50
Total 2018 pts returned = 391.05
ROI = 3.9%
The test this week is one we have become quite accustomed to since this event was moved back here in 2007. It is a short, narrow, tree-lined course with some thick enough rough and small bermdua greens. The test suits the plodding shot makers and after two long courses on Tour at Firestone and Bellerive, Sedgefield is a great equaliser. Form at similar courses like TPC Sawgrass, East Lake and Harbour Town always ties in nicely while the stats to look at are usually driving accuracy, approach proximity (particularly the short and mid irons) and par 4 scoring. Given that the course doesn’t suit the bombers it is perhaps no surprise that there aren’t too many in the field. Instead the market is headed by Sedgefield leaderboard regular Webb Simpson at just 12/1. Despite his brilliant current and course form, any event with him as the favourite is going to be open enough and with many bookmakers paying up to 8 places there is a lot of each way value around.
Sotashi Kodaira’s price of 200/1 looks completely wrong and I’m going to advise my biggest potential win ever here. Obviously you can’t eat value and for whatever reason he might miss the cut but from everything we know about player and course this is far too big. For starters he is ranked 38th in the world and has just made the weekend at both Carnoustie and Bellerive in recent majors. He won the RBC Heritage in April beating 2016 Wyndham winner Si-Woo Kim in a play-off. That event has always been a very good indicator for Sedgefield with both courses suiting shorter, tactical players and strong wedge players. That win came the week after a major where he would have been in good spirits and that is how we find him again. His 59th at the PGA wasn’t nearly as impressive as his 28th at Augusta but the rain-soaked Bellerive will have played long enough for him. He ranked 15th in scrambling and 29th in strokes gained: putting telling us his short game is in typically good order. A shorter course where he can plot his way round will be far more to his liking this week. He ranks 9th in approach proximity from 125-150 yards and 69th from 150-175 yards. These are very much the scoring ranges around Sedgefield however long you are off the tee. The price is just too big and given I’d say it’s nearly twice as big as I’d make it I’m advising 1.25pts ew.
There are a few that I like at the top the market without really loving them but I’m going to give Rafa Cabrera Bello another go after returning 12pts last week. While Kodaira gives us plenty of value, Rafa gives us a very solid profile for Sedgefield and if he is ever going to win a PGA event this looks the perfect opportunity. Sedgefield has seen 6 out of 10 non US winners and it is not a one-dimensional course that can be overpowered by the powerful young Americans. Rafa is fresh from his best ever finish in a stateside major when he shot a closing 64 at Bellerive on Sunday and will be in confident mood. He was 11th in scrambling and 9th in putts per GIR so if he marries that with his usually sound iron game he could improve on 2016’s 5th place here. This season he ranks 1st in approach proximity from 150-175 yards while he is 6th in birdie or better from 125-150 yards. Again these are the scoring ranges at Sedgefield and Rafa looks set to play well here again.
Finally I’m adding Sam Ryder who also seems to have been forgotten after a 78th place in Canada on his last start. Glen Abbey is a bit of a bombers paradise these days and wouldn’t have suited while he was 7th and 2nd before that at Barbasol and the John Deere Classic respectively. The John Deere is far more like the test we will see here this week as it is another fairways and wedges course. Ryder put together three rounds of 66 and a 67 which is very low scoring for someone who isn’t the greatest of putters. Getting the ball in tight to the flags is far more what Ryder is about and he ranks 4th in GIR and 36th in proximity to the hole from the fairway. Ryder is also 20th on Tour in driving accuracy while over the last 3 months he is 5th in total accuracy. His Web.com win last year was done with a -21 total which gave him an 8 shot win so he knows to go low and win. A nice enough each way bet at 100/1.
Another new venue for the Nordea Masters this year and with a very poor field it becomes a bit of a guessing game. I’ve looked at photos and descriptions and decided to go with a few players who have gone well on layouts that appear visually similar to the host venue, Hills Golf Club outside Gothenburg.
The rolling terrain together with the wide landing areas and elevation changes off the tee resemble Gleneagles to me while the parkland nature of some holes appear like the tree-lined courses that we see outside London like Wentworth, Walton Heath, Sunningdale, Woburn and The Grove. Form around these sort of layouts together with form in Sweden looks the best sort of angle in.
Jens Dantorp seems to have been forgotten about a little by the bookies and stands out to me at 66/1 here. He missed the cut last time out at The Open but that was his first ever major so a fairer reflection of current form is the 3rd place at the Scottish Open that got him into the Carnoustie field. That is a better recent piece of form than most of those who are ahead of him in the betting.
He’s not a player that I know what to make of as he is quite streaky in most areas of the game. Like most Swedes he has been brought up playing on exposed courses so can often be a good wind player and scrambler. Yet on other occasions his short game can be poor while his approach game is often a little below what is required too. But what interests me most about that Scottish Open 3rd was that he ranked 2nd in the all-round ranking which included hitting 78% of his fairways and 83% of his greens. Returning home to Sweden, where he also finished 3rd in 2015, he should be confident enough to rise to the challenge and contend again. The course is just an hour along the coast from his home club so he should be comfortable in the area. With 10 professional wins he shouldn’t be afraid to win should he get into contention in this sort of field.
Any course that has aspects of both Gleneagles and Wentworth will always immediately have me scrambling to see if Marc Warren is in the field. He has suffered over the last couple of years through injury and the related loss of form but there have been enough positive signs when conditions suit. Lately that has been where there is some room off the tee as he is a little more erratic with driver than he was at his peak. This was apparent only last October where the wide fairways of Kingsbarns and St Andrews allowed him to finish 4th at the Alfred Dunhill Links. There has been nothing that good in 2018 however but there were more signs of encouragement on his last start at the European Open. His finish of 22nd was decent but he ranked 2nd in the all-round ranking, suggesting that he is maybe starting to feel back to full health after his ongoing shoulder injury. Warren is a former winner at Gleneagles while he famously lost a play-off at Wentworth in 2013 and he also racked up another 6 top 30s at the Surrey course. Warren’s other two European Tour wins both came in Scandinavia with his first being in this very tournament back in 2006 and his most recent win came across the sea in Denmark. Further evidence of his liking for the English style parkland courses can be seen with his results at the British Masters since it was resurrected in 2015. They are currently trending along nicely and improving as the fairways got wider. He was 33rd at the tight Woburn course in 2015, 22nd around the more open Grove course and then 15th last year at the wide open Close House course. The wide landing areas will suit this week and hopefully his sweet swing should help him with the main test which looks like being the approaches. Worth an each way play at 80/1 as he should be comfortable here.
Just the two outright picks here as it feels like quite a trappy low-key event this year. But I’m having one very speculative first round leader pick. The European Tour website always lists the home golf course of every entrant for each tournament. It’s always worthwhile having a look to see who is listed as being based at a new course when it arrives on Tour. Joel Sjoholm used to make a habit of shooting fairly low rounds when he had a European Tour card, especially on day 1. If he is playing this course regularly he might just be able to put one good round together. Lets hope its day 1 and have a small play on Skybet’s 175/1 for First Round Leader.
Summary of bets
Satoshi Kodaira – 1.25pts ew @ 200/1 (1/5 odds 8 places Skybet)
Rafa Cabrera Bello – 1pt ew @ 22/1 (Skybet)
Sam Ryder – 0.5pt ew @ 100/1 (Skybet)
Jens Dantorp – 1pt ew @ 66/1
Marc Warren – 0.75pt ew @ 80/1
Joel Sjoholm – 0.25pts ew @ 175/1 First Round Leader
Weekly pts advised = 9.5 pts