2017 US PGA Championship – Betting Preview

Matsuyama turned the clocks back 10 months to produce one of the great final rounds at Firestone on Sunday to win comfortably and give me a much needed 20/1 winner. His ball-striking was near perfect as he fought off a stellar leaderboard and despite all the noise about McIlroy this week Matsuyama has to be considered the man to beat. More about that shortly.

That leaves the results creeping slowly back to a positive ROI but I still need a strong finish to the year so hopefully we can find some more profit this week at the final major.

2017 pts advised = 353.5pts

2017 pts returned = 294.36pts

ROI = -16.7%

 


 

US PGA Championship

For the last two years I have spoken about this being the least exciting of the majors and also “glory’s last shot” but given how excited I am about it I’m going to forget those tired clichés. Yes we will have to wait 8 months for the next major and yes it probably is the least significant of the four but this week we have the best field of the year assembled at a very fair, classical golf course where the bulk of the field have had a chance to play before. It’s a level playing field, a great course and most of the game’s big names arrive in good form, can we ask for much more? …….a Tiger Woods’ return maybe……

The course is Quail Hollow which has hosted the Wells Fargo Championship since 2003 so many of the field will have played it but not quite in its current guise. It was originally designed by George Cobb in 1961 but Tom Fazio has been back a couple of times recently to help tweak the course to get it set up to host the US PGA. Normally the course has played as quite a long Par 72 but the course has been lengthened in the last year and will play as a 7600 yard Par 71 brute this week. The greens changed from bentgrass to bermuda in 2014 and at the same time they removed lots of trees from around the greens in order to help look after the putting surfaces. Some trees were also removed from the fairways so a course that always suited long drivers is set up even more for the bombers this week.

Recent champions include Rory McIroy, James Hahn, JB Holmes and Rickie Fowler while Phil Mickelson has a host of top 10 finishes and considers the course to be one of his favourites.

One of the telling stats at recent PGA’s is that the winners of the last 10 have all finished in the top 22 of the WGC Bridgestone at Firestone. In 9 of those it was played the week before with last year being the exception due to the Olympics. While stats like that are obviously there to be broken, it is one of the more robust. It makes perfect sense that the winner is arriving in good form and also a classy enough player that they were in the restricted WGC field the week before. I haven’t followed it with every selection but when you look at the big names who meet that requirement there are plenty who are expected to go well this week. To add a little extra excitement Jordan Spieth bids for the career grand slam for the first time here too.

I’ve been back and forth with whether or not to put Hideki Matsuyama up again this week and I can see both sides of the argument here. He hasn’t yet won a major and he will have a lot of pressure on him here to win having romped home last week. His price of 12/1 looks to not really take much of that into account and it does feel a little restrictive. But on his side is how brilliantly he holds his form and the knowledge that if he plays like he did on Sunday he will win. There aren’t too many in the field that arrive here in that position and in truth we still don’t really know how good Hideki is going to be as he is still just 25 years old. I can’t leave him out but if you are struggling with the price just watch the highlights from Sunday again! I won’t repeat any of the stats from last week regarding his exquisite long game but I will add in that he has progressive form figures at Quail Hollow of 38-20-11 and as Dave Tindall pointed out in his excellent preview, Matsuyama has won twice already on bermuda greens in Phoenix.

If we look at Betfair we can still get 14.0 and I’m going win only as if he plays to his best and contends, I don’t expect anyone to get the better of him on Sunday with such positive recent final round memories for the Japanese star.

I’m not at all happy about it but after quite some consideration I decided I have to back Adam Scott here at 45/1. I know he is a terrible putter inside 10ft but he was a terrible putter inside 10ft at the Masters in 2013, just not quite as terrible because he had the long putter. But with any player there has to be a point where they can be backed regardless of such things and I think the 45/1 more than factors in his frailties on the greens. When he won the Masters it poured with rain a lot of the week and the greens were as soft as we have seen them. That certainly removes some of the advantage that good putters have on the greens and it also heightens the advantage that long drivers get off the tee. That is why we so often see the likes of McIlroy, Scott, Dustin Johnson and Bubba Watson go well when it rains as they carry the ball so far with their towering ball flights.

Scott has the all important Top 22 finish last week as he snuck into 13th after firing 3 rounds in the 60s. Scott also has an impressive bank of form in the year’s final major with 10 career top 25s, 4 of those being top 10s. The bulk of that is recent form too with top 25s in 5 of the last 6 US PGAs. Scott also has some strong Quail Hollow form with 3rd, 8th, 16th and 17th place finishes mixed together with three missed cuts. Despite him not being at his best this year he still ranks 17th in the all-round ranking on Tour and also 17th in strokes gained: tee to green. Scott might not hole enough putts to come out on top but 45/1 on a rain softened, 7600 yard course is just too generous an each way price to pass up.

I have no better idea than anyone else which Si-Woo Kim will turn up this week or how fit he might be but while markets rightly focus more heavily on form, they can sometimes be too quick to dismiss class, which, as Bill Shankly fans will tell us, is permanent. Kim, who is still just 22, has already won The Players Championship on bermuda greens and his other PGA Tour win was just 100 miles up the road at Sedgefield Greensboro. That win in the Wyndham was also on bermuda greens so it’s clear he putts better on that surface. Quite what gets his long game going I don’t know but he ranked 6th in GIR at Firestone and the last cut he made was at the US Open where he finished 13th. Kim clearly enjoys playing on the big stage and he looks massively over priced here at a general 200/1. He may well miss the cut but the price is just too big for someone who beat the best field assembled so far in 2017 just three months ago.

Tony Finau looks an interesting outsider this week given his solid record early on in his major career. He has only played in 6 to date but he has returned four top 30s with his first two yielding a 14th in the 2015 US Open at Chambers Bay and a T10th later that year at Whistling Straits. He missed a couple of cuts last year but also has an 18th and 27th at the last two Opens. Finau is one of the longer drivers on Tour (6th in DD) but he is also very aggressive which is probably reflected in the fact that he is 14th for Birdie average. What is perhaps more surprising though is that he is 6th in GIR  as someone who fires at almost every flag would be expected to short side himself and miss quite a lot of the trickier greens. The big hitter also sits in very good company in strokes gained: off the tee as he is 4th behind Rahm, Garcia and Dustin Johnson. Finau certainly appears to have the perfect game for a US PGA set-up and given his results in other majors he appears to thrive in major conditions in general. Unfortunately the bookies have also picked up on this and he has been cut into 80/1.

With his preference being for bent grass greens it could be that he doesn’t make enough birdies this week on the trickier bermuda surfaces but with rain forecast that could be an equaliser on the greens and his profile looks bang on for this test. Furthermore while he may well be better on bent grass greens, he has decent results on other surfaces with a 3rd on the bermuda greens at TPC San Antonio, a 5th on bermuda at the Valspar, a 4th on poa annua at Torrey Pines and his win in Puerto Rico was on sea paspalum greens. Finau may be just be versatile enough where greens are considered.

He has also finished 28th and 16th on his two looks at Quail Hollow. Granted it has changed a bit but with the main change being added length, he will be inconvenienced less than most.  He hasn’t been out of the top 40 in his last 8 starts and two of his last three results have been top 10s so with form simmering he looks a solid enough betting proposition. I’m having a small each way bet and also a larger Top 20.

James Hahn has two wins on Tour so far in his career, at Riviera and here at Quail Hollow. Having won on two classical, championship layouts he is firmly on the minds of punters for majors but the trouble is he hasn’t played in enough to be comfortable yet in the big events. Hahn has played in nine to date and while he missed his first four cuts, he made his next five so there is definitely progress. There is no doubt he has the all-round game for majors and he looks worth a small play here in the outright and top 20 markets.

Brendan Steele obliged with a top 20 at the US Open and he actually looked like he might place for a while. Steele has a great skill set for US majors and as ever he stands out on the stats front this week. Steele ranks 18th in birdie average, 16th in strokes gained: tee to green and 33rd in driving distance.

Steele didn’t quite get the all important top 22 at Firestone although he wasn’t far away finishing 24th. But the lanky Texan hit more greens than anybody else on the week and his last three efforts at Quail Hollow have been 14-9-30 so he is clearly comfortable on the course. He putted poorly at Firestone but I’m hoping the switch to bermuda greens will get him back on track. One of his wins was on bermuda at TPC San Antonio and his other was on poa annua so he may prefer putting away from slick bent grass carpets.

With his lofty position at the US Open until the back 9, Steele showed that he isn’t out of his depth in majors so I’m going to play him in the outright and the top 20 again.

Webb Simpson’s form has been very up and down the last few years and despite not being the longest hitters, his form at Quail Hollow together with being a North Carolina native, make me think he will play well this week. An outright bet might well be wasted given his lack of length and his putting woes since the anchoring ban but a Top 20 looks a possibility for a player who has had 5 in his last 9 starts.

My main 1st round leader bet is a little tenuous but at the same time Alexander Levy makes a habit of starting fast in Europe and I think he could take to Quail Hollow this week. I quite like him for two other reasons here though as he has a habit of excelling on rain-soaked courses as he is one of the most aggressive flag hunters around on either Tour. He only knows one way to play and he is a big hitter too so he won’t find the course too long. The tenuous part is that one of his wins came at the Portugal Masters which seems to tie in a little with Quail Hollow for the Europeans. Lee Westwood and David Lynn have both finished runner-up at Quail and won in Portugal while Robert Karlsson has a top 5 at Quail and two runners-up in Portugal. It’s maybe a bit silly but I’m having a go nevertheless at a sporting 175/1 despite him having a later tee-time.

As we all know Alex Noren can get pretty hot and put up some low numbers and he looks primed to go low again in round 1 here with an early tee time. Noren ranks 5th in round 1 scoring over the last 3 months and his final round 68 at Firestone on Sunday threatened to be even better as he raced to -5 on his front 9. For some reason Swedes have a history of starting fast at the US PGA. Of the 41 players to sit in the top 5 after day one in the last 5 years, 5 of them were Swedish. That is quite a high number given their representation in the field. The rest of the breakdown was 17 US, 6 English, 5 Australian, 2 Northern Ireland and one each from Spain, Italy, Germany, Canada, New Zealand and Argentina. A completely irrelevant stat really but makes the 66/1 about Noren look generous to me.

One final go at the 1st round leader with Patrick Reed who loves bermuda greens and has been playing ok of late. Nothing more than a bit of a hunch but it also gets an American on the Thursday team.


Summary of Bets

Hideki Matsuyama – 5pts win @ 13.5 on Betfair Exchange

Adam Scott – 1pt ew @ 45/1 (8 places, 1/5 odds Betfair Sportsbook)

Si Woo Kim – 0.5pt ew @ 200/1 and 1pt Top 20 @ 9/1

Tony Finau – 0.5pt ew @ 80/1 and 2pts Top 20 @ 7/2

James Hahn – 0.5pt ew @ 200/1 and 1pt Top 20 @ 13/2

Brendan Steele – 0.5pt ew @ 150/1 and 2pts Top 20 @ 11/2

Webb Simpson – 1pt Top 20 @ 9/2

1st Round Leader

Alexander Levy – 0.5pt ew @ 175/1

Alex Noren – 0.5pt ew @ 66/1

Patrick Reed – 0.5pt ew @ 100/1

 

Weekly pts advised = 21pts

2017 pts advised = 374.5

@theGreek82

 

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Wells Fargo Championship and GolfSixes – Betting Preview

There was a fairly obvious winner in Alexander Levy last week who had been playing well without quite contending over the last month or so. Julien Quesne played well and while he didn’t manage to get a full top 20 his finish of T18th did provide some small returns on the week.

On the PGA Tour while Cameron Smith has been playing well of late his partner Jonas Blixt hasn’t been doing much so they were a bit more of a surprise winner in the new team format at the Zurich Classic. I didn’t see a great deal so I’m not sure how much of a success it was but the players all seemed to enjoy it even if golf fans and punters struggled to get onboard.

This week it is another difficult one with a course change for the Wells Fargo due to Quail Hollow hosting the US PGA later in the year and another kooky format on the European Tour with the “Golf Sixes”. Neither look like fantastic betting heats so I may not get too involved.

Total 2017 pts advised = 191

Total 2017 pts returned = 130.97

ROI = -31.43%

 


Wells Fargo Championship

The new course this week is Eagle Point in North Carolina and like the normal host course Quail Hollow, it is a Tom Fazio design. Nobody knows a great deal about it with it being new to the Tour but PGA Tour pro Zac Blair was tweeting photos from the course over the weekend so his twitter is worth a follow for pictures of the course.

With very little to go on I have focussed on form on other Tom Fazio designed courses. One of his trademarks is difficult green complexes so with wide enough looking fairways and perfect bentgrass greens I think the better putters may be at a slight advantage this week.

Daniel Berger has been threatening to get his second win lately and I think this course should suit him. The fairways appear wide and forgiving so approach shots and short game will be more key than driving this week and that will suit Berger. He is currently 19th in strokes gained:putting for the season but as high as 3rd in total putting over the last three months. He also sits 24th in scrambling and has a runner-up finish at another Fazio design at the Honda Classic.

Berger has shown in the past that he can adapt quickly to new courses as his 10th place at Augusta on his Masters debut and his 16th place finish in the WGC Mexico testify. You could argue that 33/1 was a little on the skinny side but when you look at the depth of the field you can see it isn’t fantastic and he is the world number 38 with a win under his belt already at 24.

Zac Blair looks worth a small interest given how excited he appears by the course. Not all pros care as much about the appearance and details of every course but before Blair took so many photos of his rounds at Eagle Point he is obviously a scholar of golf course design. With very little to go on I think it is fair to assume the advantage that he will get from being so prepared will help him out play his odds of 250/1. Blair has been putting very well lately, ranks 2nd on Tour for scrambling and has played well on windy courses before.

I wasn’t sure about including Zach Johnson as he hasn’t played that well so far in 2017 but he does have a history of performing on Tom Fazio courses. Johnson won the BMW Championship at Fazio’s Conway Farms in 2013 and he finished 8th at Oakmont in last year’s US Open. Fazio reworked Oakmont prior to the 2007 edition and it famously has some of the toughest greens in the world. Even if Johnson’s long game isn’t quite where he wants it to be, this short game wizard looks over priced at 80/1.


Golf Sixes

This is another new venture from The European Tour and much like the new event in Perth earlier in the year it has had a fair amount of criticism already. I think it could be quite a fun event again however as I enjoyed the Perth Super 6 event.

Having said that though it really doesn’t look like an event to get very involved in from a betting point of view. Just 16 teams all priced between 8/1 and 33/1 with match-play greensomes over just 6 holes suggests utter carnage and an argument could be made for just backing the four outsiders win only in an attempt to get some value. I did consider that but instead I have plumped for just one pick for an interest and that is the Scottish team of Richie Ramsay and Marc Warren. They both have plenty of experience playing in the UK and also lots of positive match-play experience. Ramsay won the 2006 US Amateur Championship and Marc Warren has won around Gleneagles and made the sem-finals of the Paul Lawrie Match Play in 2015. Warren has a very good record around nearby Wentworth and visually they are quite similar courses. Ramsay has some decent finishes in the UK also with 8 top 10s over the years.

While the greensomes format (both players hit a drive and then alternate shot from their best effort) is new to Tour competitively, it seems like hitting fairways will be key, especially over just 6 holes where one mistake could lose the match. Ramsay has always been a very accurate driver of the ball whereas Warren usually does his best work on and around the greens but he does boast one of the best swings on Tour. They may just make a solid team this week and at 16/1 they look a fair price considering they are both proven winners on Tour with 6 titles between them. (Only the Thai and French teams combine for more)


Summary of Bets

Wells Fargo

Daniel Berger – 1pt ew @ 33/1

Zach Johnson – 0.5pt ew @ 80/1

Zac Blair – 0.5pt ew @ 250/1

Golf Sixes

Scotland (Ramsay and Warren) – 1pt ew @ 16/1

Weekly pts advised = 6pts

2017 pts advised = 197pts

@theGreek82

Wells Fargo Championship and Trophee Hassan II – Betting Preview

Another poor week with no returns last week. Annoyingly there were long rain delays on the PGA Tour and you can’t help but feel a little hard done by when a Tournament is reduced to 54 holes. While I didn’t have anyone properly in contention to win the interruptions prevented all three players gaining any momentum and Garrigus looked very good for a Top 20 finish before the reduction to 54 holes was announced.

In China Wiesberger looked the most likely winner during the first two rounds but he never recovered from a terrible 3rd round and finished down the field knowing his chance had gone on Sunday.

That leaves the overall results still in profit but dwindling a little;

Total points advised – 584.5pts

Total points returned – 714.67pts

ROI – 22.27%

Hopefully things will get back on track this week with the Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow in North Carolina and The European Tour arrives in Morocco for The Trophee Hassan II.


Wells Fargo Championship

The PGA Tour moves north this week as players and punters alike search for sunnier climes. The weather delays on Tour recently have been a nightmare and if last week’s Zurich Classic wasn’t already ruined by the weather then it certainly was by Sky Sport’s ridiculous decision not to show the perfectly poised final round on Monday morning. It went to a three-man play off and by all accounts it was a pulsating finish. This isn’t the first time Sky Sports has let their golf fans down and it does make you wonder just what you are paying for sometimes.

Unfortunately the forecast is more of the same for Thursday before clearing up for the rest of the week so fingers crossed the Wells Fargo Championship is uninterrupted this week.

quail hollow

Rory Mcilroy arrives in town as defending champion and the short priced favourite and he is rightly the man to beat in Charlotte, North Carolina. The course is Quail Hollow and it is one that appears to suit him perfectly as his form figures suggest, 1-8-10-2-MC-1. But it’s definitely of interest that his only missed cut was as defending champion.

It is 7575 Yards long and lately it has been a bit of a bombers paradise. After the 2013 edition brought with it many complaints about the quality of the greens, they were changed from bent grass to bermuda and a lot of trees were removed to allow more light to hit the greens. In addition to the removal of trees by the greens the fairways trees were also reduced in numbers somewhat. This has created a more open course that can really be attacked with driver and on the two renewals since, Rory Mcilroy and JB Holmes both ranked 1st in driving distance during the week of their win. But if we look further at the last 5 renewals then driving distance was already crucial as the 5 winners averaged 10th which is lower than any of the other main stats. It was closely followed by scrambling (12th) and GIR (14th).

Rory does look the most likely winner this week and while I was very close to recommending him as the bet, I’m not sure his game is in good enough shape to win this. Brian Stuard proved just last week how much strength in-depth there is this season on The PGA Tour and while the Northern Irishman won last year by 7 shots, his single figure price this week has resulted in a lot of value elsewhere for some very good players that will also be suited to the test.

Given Kevin Chappell’s recent form an argument could be made that his price is a little big this week and that is the view I’m taking. His recent form reads 4-9-MC-2 and in some pretty decent fields too. Not that Chappell has ever been one to be scared of going up against the best. When I tipped him a few weeks ago I highlighted his love of Championship style layouts, supported by his 3rd on his US Open debut and a 10th the following year. While Quail Hollow isn’t quite the difficult test that the US Open brings, it is definitely a long, Championship style layout and The PGA Championship is actually booked in at Quail Hollow for 2017.

chappell

A further look at the list of winners of The Wells Fargo shows several Major winners and since 2003 only shock winner Derek Ernst doesn’t boast a minimum of one finish in the Top 10 of a major. That tells us that it is generally a classy player that wins here and usually one that can play well on long courses. Chappell isn’t quite amongst the longest of hitters but he is very accurate with his long irons which can more than compensate. However he did rank 16th in driving distance on his last start, averaging 293 yards off the tee. While that is still some way short of Mcilroy, it is long enough to go well at Quail Hollow and he has had some decent finishes here. He finished 16th last year where he ranked 4th for par 5 scoring and he was 11th the year before where only Jason Bohn performed better on the par 5s.

The last 5 winners here have averaged 2nd in the all-round ranking so every part of the game needs to be working for Chappell but that doesn’t look to be an issue as he ranks 24th in the ARR for the last 3 months and encouragingly he was 2nd last time out in the same stat.

Chappell has looked a winner in waiting throughout this season and given four of the last eight winners of The Wells Fargo were winning for the first time (Kim, Mcilroy, Fowler and Ernst) I think this presents another excellent opportunity for Chappell to record his first win. Rory won’t give up his title without a fight but Chappell beat him by 10 shots last time they were in the same field so that shouldn’t phase him unless Mcilroy brings his A game. We really can’t be sure of that so Chappell looks like a very solid alternative at around 8 times the price.

Given how much I have backed Byeong Hun An recently in Europe there was a small tear in my eye on Monday when it looked like he might win on just his 3rd regular PGA Tour start. I must admit to being a little relieved as I would have hated to miss out on his first US win at odds of 66/1, especially as I don’t actually think I was aware he was playing until the Tournament started. Unfortunately his odds have been cut this week and the field is considerably stronger than last week too. But given I am such a big fan and we know how well he holds his form (his figures from November – February read 4-19-3-4-8-4-5-38-4) I don’t want to miss out when he does win and I’m going to take the hint from last week.

With an excellent all-round game if he continues to progress then I think he could well be a future major winner. That is exactly the type of player that goes well at Quail Hollow and An seems like he goes well on most of the same layouts as Mcilroy. He won at Wentworth last year where Rory had won the year before and he chased him home in the DP World Championship towards the end of the 2015 season finishing in 4th position. He also finished above him in the Dubai Desert Classic and one shot behind him in Abu Dhabi.

If there is a weakness to An’s game it is probably his chipping but the same has been said about Mcilroy in the past so it could be that scrambling is quite straight forward at Quail Hollow. His scrambling is also improving as he ranked 5th in that department in New Orleans. He currently ranks 31st in driving distance and 21st in GIR but a more telling idea of his current game was that he ranked 1st in the all round ranking last week.

While his price doesn’t have too much value based solely on what he has done in the game so far, if we factor in his potential then I think 45/1 is just about fair for Benny this week.

Patrick Rodgers was expected to have a big 2016 season but that hasn’t materialised yet. He finished 6th on his first start at The Fry’s Open but since then he has missed 6 out of 14 cuts returning nothing better than a 17th in the calendar year. It has mainly been his putting that has been letting him down though as some of his long game stats are still strong.

Rodgers was the number one ranked Amateur in the world as recently as 2014 and given the quality of the Amateur game recently he is still expected to go onto great things in the game.

Rodgers would have gone down in a lot of notebooks for Quail Hollow this year after finishing 2nd to Mcilroy last year. So it was particularly interesting to see just how good his long game was last week. He ranked 1st in total driving, 1st in ball striking and 1st in total accuracy but his putter left him down in 31st place. Having ranked 15th in total putting at the course last year it’s fair to think that his putting might improve this week on familiar greens. If he brings last week’s tee to green game then even an average week on the greens will hopefully see him contend again.

 


Trophee Hassan II

The European Tour gets a little bit closer to mainland Europe this week as we land in Morocco for The Trophee Hassan II. While this has been a fully sanctioned Tour event since 2010 there has been a change of venue this week as we return to the 2010 host venue Royal Golf Dar Es Salam after 5 runnings at Golf Du Palais Royal. It doesn’t appear to be a popular switch however as there is a very weak field lining up in Rabat. Aside from the 2010 renewal there is some old form from the course as it was used for the Moroccan Open at the turn of the century with Ian Poulter last winning in 2001. Additionally it has also hosted the Royal Golf Dar Es Salam Open on the low-grade MENA Tour in 2013, 2014 and 2015.

p17

The course is another Robert Trent Jones track just like the previous host course so recent form might not be entirely useless here. From the abundance of youtube videos showing highlights of the MENA Tour we can see what the course has to offer and it is extremely well tree-lined with fairly small looking greens. That combined with its length (7487 yards) suggests that long, straight driving will be beneficial here together with a hot putter as the highlights packages seem to show the main protagonists holing lots of mid-long range putts.

With Kikuyu collars and bentgrass greens it appears that scrambling will be important given the tricky nature of chipping from kikuyu lies. The grass also restricts the run out of the ball on the fairway so that will further highlight the need for length off the tee. It is also found mainly on South African golf courses so perhaps consideration should be given to in form South Africans. Louis Oosthuizen and Thomas Aiken both finished inside the Top 10 in 2010.

While there will be many in the field that have never seen the course before, Ross Mcgowan has played here several times on the MENA Tour. Not only that but he has won there and also finished runner-up the year prior when he blew a lead. So with such strong course form in a relatively weak field I was surprised to get odds of 110/1. Ross is a former winner on The European Tour so while he is having to make a living on a lower tier tour he does know what it’s like to compete with the bigger names. He doesn’t arrive in the greatest of form recently but earlier in 2016 he finished 12th, 3rd and 10th all in South Africa. He simply has to be backed where his course knowledge could give him a huge advantage over field this week.

With course form covered I wanted to find the long, straight driver that should hopefully be suited to the test. Sebastian Gros finished 1st in total driving last week and that was nearly enough on its own given how weak this field is. But he also finished 4th at the Alfred Dunhill Championship on another kikuyu + bent combo at Leopard Creek CC. Throw in recent form of 34-19-45-20 together with the fact that he finished 1st in the all-round ranking last week and he looks a solid each way bet at odds of 50/1. While he is still relatively inexperienced on The European Tour he has won twice in the last 12 months on the Challenge Tour so getting over the line in this company shouldn’t present a problem if he does take to the course.

Nino Bertasio finished 11th at Valderrama and that was the first time I really took notice of him. He ranked 1st for putting and that will surely serve him well around here. The rest of his game doesn’t appear to be too great but you don’t finish 11th around that course without doing something right. Robert Trent Jones also designed that track so while it’s definitely a bit of a risk his other high finish was 9th at the Australian PGA Championship so there might just be enough about him that he can make a mockery of his 125/1 odds.

 


Summary of bets

Wells Fargo

Kevin Chappell – 1pt ew @ 40/1

Byeong Hun An – 1pt ew @ 40/1

Patrick Rodgers – 0.5pt ew @ 100/1

Trophee Hassan II

Ross Mcgowan – 1pt ew @ 110/1

Sebastian Gros – 1pt ew @ 50/1

Nino Bertasio – 0.5pt ew @ 125/1

No doubles advised this week due to limited confidence in Europe.

Weekly outlay – 10pts

Total outlay – 594.5pts

@theGreek82