I’ve been pressed for time this week so everything will be quite brief. David Hearn and David Lingmerth both managed to fall down the leaderboard in the U.S. after starting the final round in 7th and 3rd places. I never expected them to win but it was annoying to see them both play so poorly and not even come close to placing. In Europe Aphibarnrat played very well on teh whole but just threw in too many mistakes and could only finish 10th. That stopped the run of consecutive weeks with returns but hopefully I can get back on track this week.
2017 pts advised = 290
2017 pts returned = 202.17
ROI = -30.29%
Quicken Loans National
The Quicken Loans moves course this week again to TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm and leaves us with another guessing game of sorts. The course was used however on the Web.com Tour for a couple of years in 2012 and 2013. It hosted the Mid-Atlantic Championship which was won by David Lingmerth and Michael Putnam respectively. Scoring was difficult with -7 and -8 the winning scores and that is what you would expect with a winner like Lingmerth who enjoys a bit of a grind.
There really isn’t much to like about this in terms of a confident betting heat so I’m going small stakes and speculative again this week to start. The regular host course for this was Congressional Country club just along the road from Potomac and few have a better record around that course than Robert Garrigus. He was 4th at Rory McIlroy’s U.S. Open win at the course and he also has 3rd, 8th and 11th place finishes there. If he is comfortable playing there then he may well be comfortable playing here as he will be able to stay in the same place as he does when playing Congressional and he will have fond memories of what was comfortably his best ever performance back in 2011. He is on a run of 7 missed cuts which is obviously far from ideal but he only missed out by 1 shot last week afer shooting 69-72. This season we have seen several left field players popping up on leaderboards, none more recently than Andres Romero who won in Germany at the weekend. Garrigus still ranks 20th for GIR over the last 3 months so clearly his long game isn’t in awful shape. If he can just hole a couple more putts then he might manage to get competitive.
After struggling to see anything else I like I’m taking Kevin Chappell again on the same Congressional link. He finished T4th alongside Garrigus in 2011 U.S. Open and he enjoys tough courses. Chappell is in the form of his life with a win just two months ago and he ranks 11th in GIR over the last 3 months. I fancied his chances at the U.S. Open but the course just didn’t represent enough of a tee-to-green test to see him at his best. If TPC Potomac does play tough and reports of thick rough are true then there will be few in the field better equipped to deal with the challenge off the tee.
Open De France
The Open De France returns to Le Golf National in Paris for what is its 25th time of hosting this event. That gives us lots of course form and therefore we have a good idea what is required. The course is an exposed one with fairly narrow fairways and some of the rough can be quite difficult, both in terms of thick grass and awkward stances on the rugged terrain. There is water in play on a number of holes and that combined with the potential for wind creates a course where accuracy is favoured over power. The greens are usually set-up as quick as any on the European Tour so greens can be difficult to hold and scrambling is equally tricky.
Therefore the test is an all-round one but for this tournament I always look at someone with a good combination of driving accuracy, GIR and scrambling. It isn’t a course that can be over powered and that is evident when we consider that Graeme Mcdowell is a two time winner and last year’s winner was Thonghai Jaidee. Consider form around other difficult tracks as this is seldom a birdie fest and the average winning score over the last ten editions is just -10.
Joost Luiten has been having an ok year without doing anything amazing. He has only missed one cut so far in 2017 from 12 tournaments and 9 of those have resulted in top 30 finishes. As is the case with so many brilliant ball-strikers he has struggled a little on the greens so it was very interesting to see him rank 1st in the field last week in Germany for putting. He finished up in 14th place but nobody else had a better combination of driving accuracy, GIR and total putting and I think that sets him up nicely for another good performance at a course where he has finished 9th and 18th the last two years. With a fairly strong head of the market there is still some 35/1 around and that looks very fair. Luiten is also a winner on one of the key courses that ties in with Le Golf National, Celtic Manor. Mcdowell and Jaidee have both won there and it is another exposed, undulating course with water in play and difficult greens. Historically he hasn’t been the best of scramblers but this year he ranks 21st in that area over the last 3 months and I am expecting him to go well.
I’ve been having a few bets on some younger players lately like Lagergren and Bjork but I think this week looks more about experienced players so my only other bet will be the very obvious Graeme Storm who won here in 2007. Considering he has been playing well in 2017 and won in SA in January I thought he was a fair price at a general 100/1.
I’m very keen on Bernd Wiesberger’s chances this week as he really is playing some great golf this year and is already a winner. The scheduling of his home Open the week before the U.S. Open really must grate on him but you don’t hear him complaining about it. However there is no question that it disrupts his game at a key time in the season and the fact he never really got going last week in Germany was no surprise. He still finished 20th with his long game as strong as ever but his scrambling and putting were poor. I’m very tempted to have a saver win bet on him but I can’t quite jump in at odds of 18/1. I think it is just a matter of time before he wins again and he will be very dangerous this week around a course where he won in 2015. If he drifts over 20 I may yet add him.
Summary of Bets
Robert Garrigus – 0.5pt ew @ 300/1
Kevin Chappell – 1pt ew @ 28/1
Open De France
Joost Luiten – 1.5pts ew @ 35/1
Graeme Storm – 0.5pts ew @ 100/1
Weekly pts advised = 7pts
2017 pts advised = 297pts