There were no returns last week as Justin Rose treaded water over the weekend, surely just freewheeling and sharpening up his game for this week.
It leaves the 2017 totals looking rather grim ahead of the first major but confidence is high after a lot of hard work so hopefully we can get back into profit with a good week.
2017 points advised = 140
2017 points returned = 77.66
ROI = -44.5%
I have written an extensive preview for Matchbook so I won’t be including a preview as such here. The link to that will appear below when it is published.
So instead I will just include my tips this week with maybe a little reasoning. I have been back and forth with betting Jordan Spieth as a single but today Rory Mcilroy has shortened up on the exchange and Spieth has been pushed out to almost double figures at 9.6. I don’t believe McIlroy has a better chance than Spieth and I’m not sure there should be such a difference between Spieth and Dustin Johnson. Therefore with Masters form figures of 2-1-2 I simply have to back him at 9.6.
He looks nailed on for another top 5 and while I was tempted to go in heavy on the 2.65, instead I’m going to include that in a slightly novelty double and save the stakes for my other bets. I will play 4pts win on Matchbook’s standout exchange price of 9.6.
There are three solid each way bets that I like all with a good Masters pedigree and also excellent stats/trends; Bill Haas, Marc Leishman and Louis Oosthuizen. I am also backing Bill Haas for a top 20.
I have found a couple of huge prices that I like on the exchange too. While I am not tipping them as such, they may well be good trading options. Instead I will include them as top 20 bets here; Brendan Steele and James Hahn.
Adam Hadwin sits in 14th for 1st round scoring over the last 3 months and he has what looks to be a favourable morning tee-time. Right now the forecast is for the wind to be edging towards 40km/h in the afternoon compared to around 20km/h in the morning. He is a debutant which meant I all but dismissed him from the outright market but his stats are very impressive too for Augusta. He is 7th in strokes gained: putting, 1st in bogey avoidance and 2nd in scrambling. Back him each way for first round leader @ 66/1
Russell Henley got the last entry for this by winning in Houston at the weekend and he will be delighted as he comes from Georgia. His stats are also brilliant and he virtually holed everything he looked at on Saturday and Sunday. I think he can start quickly here before the pressure and mental fatigue kick in later in the week. Playing so well that he has to be given respect this week but recency bias has him a little short here. Looks another nice bet in the 1st round leader market though again at 66/1 as he ranks 10th in first round scoring in the last 3 months. Tees off first at 8am in just a two-ball with Daniel Summerhays. Having the whole course empty in front of them will be ideal for these two great putters and they might just feed off each other if they start rolling the putts in.
Whenever The Masters and Grand National fall on the same weekend it can be a very enjoyable betting angle to find a double. In the Grand National I very much like the favourite Vieux Lion Rouge who finished 7th last year as a 7yr old and has improved an awful lot with two excellent wins this season. Winning twice isn’t always ideal preperation for a race that you have to be campaigned at all year. But last year he was run in the 4 miler at Cheltenham just 4 weeks before the Grand National which would hardly have been ideal so he will be fresher this year and the handicapper has only put him up 3lb since last year which seems very fair indeed. He is a brilliant jumper and while he appeared to tire in the run in last year he has looked this year like his stamina is improving still as an 8 yr old. I think he has a great chance of winning but as always with the Grand National he may be susceptible to another well handicapped horse. So I’m going to advise a place double of Vieux Lion Rouge and Jordan Spieth at around 8/1 or whatever price you can get once the Grand National place markets open. It looks very solid indeed.
Summary of bets
Jordan Spieth – 4pts win @ 9.6
Bill Haas – 1pt ew @ 100/1 and 4pts Top 20 @ 11/4
Marc Leishman – 1pt ew @ 70/1
Louis Oosthuizen – 1pt ew @ 55/1
Brendan Steele – 2pts Top 20 @ 9/2
James Hahn – 2pts Top 20 @ 8/1
Adam Hadwin – 0.5pt ew 1st round leader @ 66/1 (1/4 odds first 5)
Russell Henley – 0.5pt ew 1st round leader @ 66/1 (1/4 odds first 5)
4pts Place Double – Jordan Spieth (1st-5th) and Vieux Lion Rouge (1st-5th) @ 8.625/1
Weekly points advised – 24pts
Total 2017 pts advised – 164pts