Molinari got us a share of the each way money last week and with a closing -10 par he showed us that the course did suit but it was a little too late to trouble Pampling who was yet another massive shock on the PGA Tour.
John Huh did most of his best work on the Thursday but rallied to finish in T10th after a solid enough weekend.
Leaves the results as follows
Total points advised = 840
Total points returned = 825.56
ROI = -1.75%
OHL Mayakoba Classic
It’s been a bit rushed this week due to being ill the last couple of days but still like the look of a couple in this.
The PGA Tour takes its now regular jaunt down to Mexico this week and the El Cameleon Golf Club in Playa Del Carmen. Let’s hope they can all make it back safely before Trump builds his wall!
The course is a short, fiddly, tree-lined Par 71 at 6987 yards long. The greens are sea paspalum again as we were in Kuala Lumpur 3 weeks ago. This is the 5th running at this course and the previous four winners are John Huh, Harris English , Charley Hoffmann and Graeme McDowell. All four are good drivers of the ball and when you look at photos of the narrow fairways with fairly lush rough you can see why the course generally suits the more accurate types. There are no doubt some very accurate 2017 rookies so there is no reason to think another fearless rookie can’t go in again this week but generally the new batch tend to be more of the grip it and rip it ranks these days. I think there are just about enough tricks at the El Cameleon course to make it very hard for anyone to turn up and contend while spraying their ball around. So without ruling them out I tried to look more closely at those that have played here before and know exactly the type of test they face. There have been a couple of debut winners but it is far more a place where plodding, experienced players go well.
Keegan Bradley is one of the best drivers in the game so it shouldn’t be a surprise that he finished 8th here on his debut last year nor that he currently ranks 8th for total driving over the last 3 months. Since the anchoring ban he has really struggled to find a stroke that works for him but this week the sea paspalum may be a bit of an equaliser. After a tough 2016 season where he only managed two Top 10s he has already equalled that after just 3 tournaments. On his last two starts he finished 6th on the sea paspalum greens at the CIMB Classic and then 7th last week at the Shriners. His putting wasn’t exactly amazing but he is finding a way to be competitive again and he currently ranks 96th for total putting over the last 3 months which is a massive improvement on 256th over the last year. While his price might look a little skinny we shouldn’t forget that this is a major champion who was a solid enough putter when he first arrived on Tour.
With yet another shock winner last week in Rod Pampling, 2016 has been the year to ignore the tried and tested combo of current form + course form but that can surely only be short term. Golf punters will be hoping things revert back to normal on Tour sooner rather than later and I’m hoping it starts this week with Keegan Bradley.
John Huh flew out of the blocks last week and he looked all set to contend at a rather hefty 200/1. He followed his opening 62 however with a 73 and although he rallied a little over the weekend he couldn’t finish any better than T10th. But for me that was a huge hint that his game is getting back to somewhere near its best. If that’s the case then where better for him to visit than the scene of his first PGA Tour win in 2012.I would be annoyed if he contended having tipped him lat week so despite his odds crashing a little I think 80/1 is just about fair for an in-form course winner.
I’ve spent even less time on this as it looks a bit of a conundrum with the vastly superior Henrik Stenson going off as a short price favourite in South Africa. While he looks a little short it is a restricted field tournament and the next players in the market also look a bit short. There is probably a little bit of each way value to be had down the field but without the time to research instead I’m going to have a win only bet on one of my favourite players. Stenson is always an enjoyable bet and he was only outdone by an inspired Leishman here last year. He is definitely the man to beat here and with the chance to win the Race of Dubai this year that extra momentum should see him take control.
Summary of Bets
Keegan Bradley – 1pt ew @ 28/1
John Huh – 0.5pt ew @ 80/1
Henrik Stenson – 3pts win @ 4.8
Weekly points advised – 6pts
Total points advised – 846pts